UN 153: Buses for Thornhill Park

 

A couple of suburbs west of Mt Atkinson (which I covered two weeks ago) is Thornhill Park. Like Mt Atkinson it abuts the Melton train line but there's no station, though a town centre is promised for the end of next year. The developer has raised expectations of a local station or, failing that, Melton line electrification, but the government has committed funding to neither.

Delivery of infrastructure is a thorny issue in these parts. Buyers purchase with expectations raised. They blame the developer if facilities and services don't happen. The developer in turn blames the government, pointing to the GAIC contributions they've made. However these don't cover the cost of large projects like rail electrification. 

There's also sometimes tussles between local and state governments where responsibilities are shared. Local government planners tell me that it's hard to get developers to fund transit-friendly infrastructure (eg bus lanes) when there is no assurance that the state will deliver the frequent service it needs to be worthwhile. This is important as, even if it gets built, transit infrastructure like bus lanes unbacked by frequent service is vulnerable to removal due to political pressure, such as happened on Stud Rd about a decade ago.

Thornhill Park doesn't even have a regular bus route, though it is within the catchment of the Melton FlexiRide. Such flexible routes work when hardly anyone is using them but as soon as usage exceeds a (low) threshold reliability can break down (as has been encountered with Tarneit FlexiRide). Hence they are more symbolic than real transport for those who need to reliably get somewhere, especially in peak periods. 

Thus Thornhill Park is going to need a fixed bus route to connect to train stations, shops and other facilities. Especially as there is so little within the suburb itself, even though plans are for it to be home to over 30 000 people by 2050. 

A recent adjournment speech from Western Victoria MLC Joe McCracken (Hansard 2 May 2023) drew members' attention to the suburb's lack of services and poor connectivity to the outside world. Locals are petitioning for a station. Concern about Thornhill Park's lack of access and services has been mounting for some time with A Current Affair featuring a report last year. 

Where would a bus route from Thornhill Park go? Like Mt Atkinson the answer isn't immediately obvious. Hence I will once again set down some options. 

Option A Thornhill Park - Cobblebank Station

A short route about 7km long. A single bus should (just) be able to operate a 40 minute service with two buses needed for a 20 minute service. Reliability could however be affected by the level crossing at Mt Cottrell Rd (which the local council wishes to see removed). 

This route would get people to the train station at Cobblebank and basic shopping facilities (including a Coles supermarket). However direct connectivity to other services will remain limited, requiring one or two changes to other buses or trains). 

Option B Thornhill Park - Woodgrove SC

At nearly double the length of Option A, this option requires double the number of buses to provide service at a given frequency (ie 2 for a basic 40 min service). However it directly connects Thornhill Park to many major destinations, jobs and services which a lot of residents would like.

There are also some wider benefits, eg improved frequency on the highway spine from Woodgrove to the main street shops to the industrial area. This would be particularly advantageous if services can be scheduled to depart in between Route 456 departures to provide a combined 20 minute frequency. 

Option C Route 454 extended to Thornhill Park

This takes the existing Route 454 (Melton to Cobblebank) and tacks Option A above onto it. While it is still inferior to Option B with regards to the local destinations covered, it still connects to a wider range of intersecting bus routes than Option A. The route's total length is about 13 km, making the 454's existing 40 minute interpeak service possible with two buses. As Route 454 appears to be a one-bus route (15 minute run time gives approx 40 min frequency) this option appears to be a similar cost to A. above but connects to more destinations.  

Summary

My comments for Mt Atkinson apply here. Thornhill Park is a planning and development failure with development patterns that condemn it to years if not decades of substandard and indirect service. There is only so much that can be done with bus network design if there are no stations, no destinations and little permeability to allow simple and direct access.

Thus all the network options above have problems and I don't think any are particularly good. In particular they involve back-tracking to catch a city-bound train. And connectivity to eastern areas like Caroline Springs or even nearby estates like Aintree is poor. This is attributable to the currently disconnected road network and Route 456 tending to skip Caroline Springs Town Centre in favour of Burnside, Albion and Sunshine.

With two railway lines (one electric), rail-based centres, a better road grid and more permeability, the City of Wyndham (including Mambourin discussed last week) is generally more conducive to better transport than City of Melton suburbs like Mt Atkinson and Thornhill Park. 

Nevertheless there must still be better options for local buses in Thornhill Park. Your thoughts on this are appreciated and can be left below. 

More Useful Network items