On Tuesday, after the resignation of Jacinta Allan followed by a long Cabinet meeting, Ben Carroll emerged as Premier. Current transport minister Gabrielle Williams is his deputy. Election analyst Antony Green noted that that long-term three leader governments typically end in landslide victories for the opposition. However Jacinta Allan's polling as premier was so dire that even members of her own faction wanted a leadership change despite an election in just four months.
Mr Carroll's first announcement was a royal commission into corruption in the construction industry, including major transport projects. The previous premier's resistance to that in the face of intense media and public interest was a major factor in her downfall. Integrity, community safety, economic management and restoring strained business confidence are other priorities of the new premier.
The future of major projects
The government has budgetary issues too. It has to be selective with regards to what and how it builds. As well as potentially making unpopular revenue and fiscal decisions.
Mr Carroll is widely regarded as being an internal critic of the Suburban Rail Loop but a supporter of Airport Rail. Especially after he got a Keilor East station added to the latter's plans to improve access to a poorly served part of his seat. My views on Airport Rail's comparative value here.
Mr Carroll's first announcement was a royal commission into corruption in the construction industry, including major transport projects. The previous premier's resistance to that in the face of intense media and public interest was a major factor in her downfall. Integrity, community safety, economic management and restoring strained business confidence are other priorities of the new premier.
The future of major projects
The government has budgetary issues too. It has to be selective with regards to what and how it builds. As well as potentially making unpopular revenue and fiscal decisions.
Mr Carroll is widely regarded as being an internal critic of the Suburban Rail Loop but a supporter of Airport Rail. Especially after he got a Keilor East station added to the latter's plans to improve access to a poorly served part of his seat. My views on Airport Rail's comparative value here.
As for the Suburban Rail Loop East, works are well under way, contracts signed and tunnelling about to begin. The Herald Sun has said the new premier will order a "sweeping review of the SRL" while The Age says he will "consider alterations". However Mr Carroll also said that he "was going to be a premier who doesn't break contracts".
Transport policy under this government has been driven by Project 10000, a make-work scheme to create 10000 construction sector jobs through major projects, as opposed to the execution of a plan based on a careful assessment of needs. This was likely a reaction against the previous Coalition government that was widely seen as building little in its four years.
Back in 2020 I described this as 'Allanism', named after then then Transport Minister and later premier. This was a stance that emphasised 'Big Build' capital works over efficient asset utilisation and service provision (and for that matter a host of smaller high-BCR capital works projects). It is distinctively different to similar large transport construction agendas in Sydney and Perth as these cities also got large public transport service increases and some smaller projects like bus reform.
The Carroll premiership will likely involve a policy reset. Indeed that's the expectation given the sudden leadership change after a period of internal dissatisfaction.
The cavalier Andrews/Allan "things cost what they cost" attitude may give way to a more watchful stance. If for no other reason that the interest bill from project-based borrowing is cramping the state's ability to deliver services. That's not just in transport but also health, education and community services etc. On the other hand the government has an election to win so it needs to move fast, something not always conducive to good decision making.
Back in 2020 I described this as 'Allanism', named after then then Transport Minister and later premier. This was a stance that emphasised 'Big Build' capital works over efficient asset utilisation and service provision (and for that matter a host of smaller high-BCR capital works projects). It is distinctively different to similar large transport construction agendas in Sydney and Perth as these cities also got large public transport service increases and some smaller projects like bus reform.
The cavalier Andrews/Allan "things cost what they cost" attitude may give way to a more watchful stance. If for no other reason that the interest bill from project-based borrowing is cramping the state's ability to deliver services. That's not just in transport but also health, education and community services etc. On the other hand the government has an election to win so it needs to move fast, something not always conducive to good decision making.
There are just sixteen weeks to go to the state election. There are even fewer weeks until 'caretaker period' starts. A government seeking a 'new direction' may wish to get as much advice as they can from their departments (noting the complication of some, including in the transport portfolio, going through the Silver staffing cuts).
In some cases planning work might have already been done and merely require some dusting off to update it to current circumstances. Politicians can only juggle a few balls at once. Much work done by departments never gets implemented. Especially if their Secretary's skill set is something other than winning support and selling ideas and/or political circumstances are unfavourable.
It is also retrospectively clear that premier Andrews had no love for buses. As MP since 2002 he achieved nothing for Route 800 right past his office through the heart of the Mulgrave electorate, for example. This was even during the Bracks-Brumby era when thousands of extra services per week were being added on other routes.
Jacinta Allan, his first transport minister, also turned out to lack interest in substantial metropolitan bus network reform, despite this being essential to get the most from buses in a budget constrained environment. Although some of that averseness to risk may be due to Labor's slim margin prior to the 2018 election. Regional trains and buses got upgrades but metropolitan trains and tram timetables largely did not with a planned 2015 greenfield Metro rail timetable not proceeding. Sydney meanwhile, under transport minister Berejiklian, was upgrading rail service levels rapidly with maximum waits at most stations cut from 30 to 15 minutes in the new 2017 timetable.
The next minister, Melissa Horne, was too inexperienced and not in the role long enough to significantly change the policy course for buses.
Ben Carroll the minister after that, did want to reform buses, with Victoria's Bus Plan launched in June 2021. Things were initially promising but there were media reports that he was one of those MPs in Daniel Andrews' "freezer". Expectations were raised pre-2022 election only to be dashed after the election with regards to major publicly announced bus network reviews for Melbourne's north, north-east and Mildura. However some minor but worthwhile metropolitan rail frequency boosts on some lines happened in early 2021.
The 2023 and 2024 state budgets saw little extra for bus and rail services though there has been acceleration of progress on both in the next two budgets under the next minister Gabrielle Williams. In terms of benefits versus cost there is little that is better value in public transport than continued train and bus service increases on main routes though more bravery on greenfield train timetables and bus network reform is needed to optimise 'bang for buck'.
The 2025 and 2026 budget measures for metropolitan bus and train services were good for what they were. However they come following previous budgets which did very little for the service side (and for that matter some small scale but cost-effective capital works projects). So there's a huge backlog to catch up on.
Seven new directions for public transport (that don't cost a fortune)
What could a "new direction for government" mean in the transport portfolio? Some possibilities here:
* A renewed emphasis on a large number of highly impactful walking and cycling improvements across the state.
* 20 and then 10 minute maximum waits on increasing parts of the Metro Train network to give real meat to "Switching on the Big Build". Craigieburn line (very busy and near the premier's seat) followed by Ringwood (busy and marginal seats), Mernda (growth area line) and Werribee (growth area line) should be high priorities. Along with Wyndham Vale and Melton (weekends) service boosts for V/Line ahead of electrification. The 2025 and 2026 state budgets have already set the ball rolling here but much more is needed.
* Regaining control of fare evasion, something that previous recent government have let get out of hand, especially for buses. Credit/debit card payment now possible on all buses make compliance easier. Another way to optimise ridership while protecting the system's revenue base is to move to more progressive fares across the staet, ie short trips are cheaper and long trips are dearer (though still very cheap). This could tie in to financial management and law and order agendas.
* Revving up bus network reform. Though not necessarily as per the Bus Reform Implementation Approach. For example reform could be done by identifying major 10 and 20 minute frequency corridors and reforming surrounding routes to make this more economical. The more reform is done the more consistently frequent corridors you can have without buying more buses.
* Upgrades to existing direct bus routes. Most notably operating hours and weekend frequencies such as desirable for retail and hospitality workers. Again the 2025 and 2026 state budgets have made a start. High priority routes are listed here.
* Transport to Melbourne Airport is a renewed priority, especially for airport workers. Keilor East transport could be upgraded ahead of Airport Rail. Concepts for that here and here.
* Frequent SRL precursor orbital buses. Regardless of the outcome of any work to examine the Suburban Rail Loop, it is undeniable that high frequency orbital bus routes would be a high priority and a precursor to and subsequent feeder to the SRL. Examples could include (i) Sunshine - Melbourne Airport - Broadmeadows - Greensborough - Doncaster and (ii) Doncaster - Box Hill - Oakleigh - Southland - Sandringham. Early introduction of these could bring forward some of SRL's benefits.
Seven new directions for public transport (that don't cost a fortune)
What could a "new direction for government" mean in the transport portfolio? Some possibilities here:
* A renewed emphasis on a large number of highly impactful walking and cycling improvements across the state.
* 20 and then 10 minute maximum waits on increasing parts of the Metro Train network to give real meat to "Switching on the Big Build". Craigieburn line (very busy and near the premier's seat) followed by Ringwood (busy and marginal seats), Mernda (growth area line) and Werribee (growth area line) should be high priorities. Along with Wyndham Vale and Melton (weekends) service boosts for V/Line ahead of electrification. The 2025 and 2026 state budgets have already set the ball rolling here but much more is needed.
* Regaining control of fare evasion, something that previous recent government have let get out of hand, especially for buses. Credit/debit card payment now possible on all buses make compliance easier. Another way to optimise ridership while protecting the system's revenue base is to move to more progressive fares across the staet, ie short trips are cheaper and long trips are dearer (though still very cheap). This could tie in to financial management and law and order agendas.
* Revving up bus network reform. Though not necessarily as per the Bus Reform Implementation Approach. For example reform could be done by identifying major 10 and 20 minute frequency corridors and reforming surrounding routes to make this more economical. The more reform is done the more consistently frequent corridors you can have without buying more buses.
* Upgrades to existing direct bus routes. Most notably operating hours and weekend frequencies such as desirable for retail and hospitality workers. Again the 2025 and 2026 state budgets have made a start. High priority routes are listed here.
* Transport to Melbourne Airport is a renewed priority, especially for airport workers. Keilor East transport could be upgraded ahead of Airport Rail. Concepts for that here and here.
* Frequent SRL precursor orbital buses. Regardless of the outcome of any work to examine the Suburban Rail Loop, it is undeniable that high frequency orbital bus routes would be a high priority and a precursor to and subsequent feeder to the SRL. Examples could include (i) Sunshine - Melbourne Airport - Broadmeadows - Greensborough - Doncaster and (ii) Doncaster - Box Hill - Oakleigh - Southland - Sandringham. Early introduction of these could bring forward some of SRL's benefits.
Such a major route along with a 'frequent network' for more main road bus routes plus train frequency boosts on key lines and suburban rail improvements could well be the ingredients of adjusted transport priorities under a new premier.
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