Friday, June 10, 2022

UN 129: Highway robbery: How our grandparents walked there quicker

A stealthy theft of time and space is making driving faster and walking slower in suburbs across Melbourne. Individual small changes spread across hundreds of sites is creating a tsunami of slowness driven by state and council authorities who in words claim to support 'active transport'.

Decisions, made by faceless technocrats in road authorities, happen without public accountability or oversight. Yet they're changing the way that we get around, prioritising driving over walking and public transport, even for very local trips. Whether intended or not, the effect is induced car traffic and stronger business cases for more and wider roads. That repeats the vicious cycle as walking becomes even less attractive across increasingly severed communities. 

This theft has been happening for 60 or 70 years. Newer suburbs have known nothing else. Older suburbs got it imposed on them. And it's still going on. Including under the cover of apparently connectivity improving projects such as level crossing removals. In some cases old direct walking paths got obliterated as crossing removals merely substituted one type of barrier for another. In other instances added turning lanes widened roads and thus reduced connectivity for walkers crossing. Certain works, such as less direct paths and replacing zebra crossings with lights, is a walking time grab that just induces more driving despite being done under the guise of accessibility and safety.

Space taken

As mentioned before, this theft can involve space, time or both. 

An example of a space theft is where a road is widened. Instead of having to cross four lanes a walker may have to cross six or eight lanes. This is harder and scarier, especially for the less mobile. Particularly at unsignalised points, which is most places. The recent Getting to the Bus Stop study by Victoria Walks found that 60% of bus stops were on high speed roads. Of those fully 95% lacked a pedestrian crossing within 20 metres.  

Widening projects that incorporate roundabouts or slip lanes are even worse, especially where there are no zebra crossings on the approaches. As well as taking more space the geometry works against bus-bus transferring passengers as stops are pushed back from the intersection. Because reaching a stop requires multi-road crossings, multiple long waits at lights and long walks, this greatly reduces connectivity to and between bus routes. The diagram below paints the picture. Or you can tour a real example involving intersecting SmartBus routes at Springvale Rd/Wellington Rd here


Minimum parking requirements is another hidden space invader in our cities. They also add walking distances. Supposing an old library, shop, entertainment venue, school or health centre is demolished. The new one, that councils will lobby for and politicians will pat themselves on the back for having helped fund, will likely be subject to parking requirements that add to metres squared of asphalt. Some of the housing styles in our most highly valued older suburbs would not be buildable today due to red tape parking requirements that inconvenience walkers and entrench driving dependence.  

Time taken

Space and time are related in intersection design. The wider the road the wider the intersection. And the longer it takes to pass through it. And there are more possible movements when it's complex. That leads to longer cycle times. Long cycle times means that if you arrive just after your light has turned red you have a long wait until you can next go. Waits are even longer if the intersection design and light timings require you to complete your crossing in multiple stages as is frequently the case, especially for older people.   

Speaking of whom, do we wait longer to cross signalised roads today than our grandparents would have? Let's go back to the 1930s when traffic lights were proposed on some main roads after earlier trials. Articles here and here discuss the issues. 

Signals were proposed due to a high number of crashes (even back then they used the misnomer 'accident'). They could be synchronised (timed) or vehicle actuated with the latter suggested for Point Nepean Rd near Martin St (amongst other locations). The 1940 article says that the real danger spots (for motorists) were at 'busy but not obviously busy' intersections. Somewhere like Camberwell Junction was 'so obviously busy' that it engenders care do was less dangerous. Even then they knew stuff that is starting to be 'rediscovered'.

Nepean Hwy near Martin St got their lights in 1939. A reason given for their existence was to allow pedestrians to cross despite heavy traffic, especially on weekends and race days. 

The lights ran on fixed cycles of 45 seconds total.  Martin St got 11 seconds (green) with 4 seconds amber while the busier Pt Nepean Rd got 26 seconds (green) with 4 seconds amber. In the worst case scenario if you just missed a green on Martin St you would wait 34 seconds before your time comes around. Remember those times, noting that the then Point Nepean Rd was one of Melbourne's busiest.

There were several different styles of traffic signal in these early years. One style was developed by Charles Marshall who was concerned that existing signals did not give warning that they were going to change. His signals did with two dials at 90 degrees facing oncoming traffic on each road. These showed how long you needed to wait and how long you had. Like today's lights Marshallites had red, amber and green aspects. Some background on the Marshalites is here

In 1947 Charles Marshall offered to install his lights much further down Point Nepean Rd near Main St and Tyabb Rd (Mornington). Councillors expressed varying views on their desirability. Cr Bradford was concerned about 'heavy traffic that would be stopped every 40 seconds'. Cr Nunn said that it 'was a heartache for a mother to send her children to school' (at a time when most walked independently) and that (traffic) 'having to stop for a short time' should not be a worry. Cr Fielding agreed, saying that 'the motorist, instead of learning manners, was now worse than ever before'.  


Of interest from that discussion was the 40 second wait time cited. Below is a video demonstrating Marshalite signals as used on Nepean Highway around areas like Aspendale and Chelsea through to the 1970s before being replaced with conventional all-electronic lights. 

Look at the seconds elapsed as the hands move to where they start. You'll notice that the total cycle time is 45 seconds. The red and green areas are roughly equal, meaning that each direction gets about the same amount of time.  

A disused Marshalite signals sits in Chelsea's Bicentennial Park. While not currently operational they were restored so that they were when they were first moved there. The walk phase and its associated amber is about one-third the total cycle time. 


The Martin St Brighton lights mentioned before were apparently not Marshalites. However as you saw from the article they had a 45 second cycle time. As did the Marshalites you read about and saw demonstrated. Thus it's fair to conclude that 45 seconds was not an unusual cycle time for traffic signals, even those on major roads. 

While not perfect for dense walkable areas, a 45 second cycle time still stacks up quite well (a B level of service) for walking connectivity when viewed from the perspective of the Department of Transport's Movement and Place Framework for active transport. Lights with short cycles have far fewer people crossing against them than where cycles are longer.  

How long does it take today? 

Basic walking needs have not changed much in decades. What was poor for a traffic signal 80 years ago will still be poor today. This likely extends to matters like willingness to wait and risk-taking behaviour. What has changed has been the roads and the traffic signals. Below is a video case study from the intersection of Nepean Hwy and Martin Street in Gardenvale. 


This is not an isolated case. Projects other than road widenings, such as level crossing removals, can also increase walking times. This is especially if they foist current traffic engineering practice onto century old communities designed and built around trains and walking. 

You only need to go a bit further down Nepean Highway to find an example. Chelsea recently got its level crossings removed. Local walking access conditions changed. Gone was the old station underpass whose exit aligned with pedestrian lights across to the shops on Nepean Hwy. This got replaced by a footbridge that, unlike the old underpass, has no pedestrian lights near its highway exit. The result is that walkers from the bus or nearby streets have a less direct, unsheltered and unshaded walk before they reach inconveniently placed lights and often have to backtrack to their destination. 

This poor outcome is a direct result of LXRP-associated engineers ignoring walking as an important local transport mode and its need for good permeability at multiple points. See the consequences for yourself in "Hot, Wet & Disconnected" below.  

But wait, there's more! Not mentioned in the video was that pedestrian light timings have lengthened, further extending walking times.  For example the (inconveniently located) southern pedestrian lights at Nepean Hwy has a maximum wait of 60 seconds versus 45 seconds on the removed crossing (conveniently near the old station's underpass). 

Another highway crossing further north near The Strand has an even longer 80 second maximum wait at lights on both (busy) Nepean Hwy and (quieter) Station St. This is despite  Kingston Council advocating it as a major pedestrian connection and even partly funding a footbridge. Notwithstanding their effect on walking access and safety, signal timings are considered obscure technical business rarely discussed in public. 


Conclusion  

Walking in metropolitan areas today is slower than what our grandparents (if they lived in Melbourne) would have experienced. This is due to less connected street patterns and double or triple the waiting at signalised intersections. Also, due to lower car traffic volumes, there would have  been more times they could cross mid-block without waiting long. All are direct consequences of thousands of small decisions made over many years. 

The Department of Transport is currently reviewing traffic light timings . However there's no transparency or word on the values that guide either it or technology like Smarter Roads. Especially for people who walk for transport in the suburbs. Something like the Movement and Place framework may list movement as a priority for a major road corridor and give car traffic free flow. However this risks downplaying the road's role as a barrier for walkers needing to cross it.  

Our grandparents would have waited half the time for a tram as we do today. This is because tram frequencies have dropped (notably in the 1950s and 60s) with only a weak recovery since. The most recent news is of a cut, rather than an increase, for tram frequencies. Also in-tram travel was faster due to fewer cars on mostly shared roads being in the way. Even major train lines, like Frankston, have longer end-to-end travel time than they did in the 1990s with the trip to the city now exceeding an hour while there's new parallel freeways that weren't there then.

Maybe it's these sorts of issues that our billions allocated for 'Big Build' projects should be tacking across Melbourne. Even if some (particularly traffic inducing freeways) are cancelled with funds diverted to (say) 10 000 'Little Build' projects instead. More people in more neighbourhoods could well be better off. 

Index to more Useful Network items here

Tuesday, June 07, 2022

TT #166: What's happening to our tram timetables?


Up to now Melbourne has largely avoided COVID-related public transport service cuts (except instances such as at V/Line and Dysons where drivers were available and temporary cancellations applied). 

This is unlike central London for which large bus service reductions are proposed

However we're not getting off scot free. Last Tuesday's Age warned of cuts to trams on Elizabeth St and St Kilda Rd routes. These would save $4 million per year by making what is termed 'minor reductions' in frequency during shoulder peak times. That includes just before and just after the evening rush hours, extending into the early evening. Lower than expected passenger numbers (due to the pandemic and people working from home) was given as a justification.  

The information came to light in a response presented by the Department of Transport to PAEC (Public Accounts & Estimates Committee). This refers to funding for a tram service increase in 2018 lapsing in 2021/22. This (pre-pandemic) 2018 boost was to address crowding and impacts of Metro Tunnel construction work. The government did not seek a renewal of funding for this upgrade due to lower patronage and less construction impact. Hence the services added four years ago will be withdrawn. 

Or will they? Response h above refers to minimising negative impacts. 

The response is that DoT is considering scope for network efficiencies and reducing what it terms 'under-utilised' services. 

So there is a chance that not all the services added in May 2018 will be withdrawn if quieter alternatives to prune back are found. Or efficiencies are found. Possibilities are shown below. 


What is chosen depends on your aim when developing or reforming a network. Last week I argued that frequency is everything despite it often being ignored or at best under-appreciated by the Department of Transport / PTV. 

I also suggested that frequency should drive every decision in public transport planning. Including whether to go ahead with these cuts (if it's a straight reversal of the 2018 upgrades) or seeking more tolerable alternatives. The latter could be based on preserving maximum waits for as much of the day as possible on as many routes as possible. Ideally these should be 10 minutes, though St Kilda Rd routes  don't even meet this now. Or, where frequency is currently lower, like in the early evening, at 15 rather than 20 minutes. 

The best option of course would be to cut nothing and instead look at ways to economically increase rather than cut overall network frequencies. On this note the long-term trends. Despite being a key driver of patronage tram frequency has been neglected for decades. Timetables have suffered 'death of a thousand cuts' over decades (most notably the 1950s and 60s with few reversals since) and we now wait up to twice as long for trams as our grandparents did

The longer any planned service reductions are deferred the better. It is possibly not a bad thing that we haven't been told about what is happening and when it will be happening. That might be sign that there might be deeper thinking happening than merely removing the service that got added in 2018.  

The 2018 service boosts

So what are the May 2018 service upgrades that may be reversed? You can read about them here or below. 


Note though that the Age article only refers to Elizabeth St and St Kilda Rd services. Thus the cuts may not affect the 58 and 86 mentioned above. Tram route and frequency guides are published on Yarra Trams website here. However there were enough discrepancies between these and actual timetables that I gave up using them. 

The tram 67 example below shows the 2018 upgrade in the early evening outbound direction. In 2017 the service was every 12 - 15 minute until 7:34pm. It dropped to every 17 minutes for a couple of trips before settling down at the 20 minute late evening frequency at 8:26pm. 

In contrast the 2018 boost extended the 15 minute service by about 90 minutes to finish at 9:08pm after which frequency reverted to 20 minutes. This was achieved by adding two tram trips. It meant that people could eat out in the CBD and have a 15 minute maximum wait until after 9pm. 


The 67 was a St Kilda Rd route. Let's look at an Elizabeth St route, like the popular 59 to Airport West via Niddrie (in the minister's electorate). In 2017 the 59 had a good interpeak frequency but fell off in the evening. For example it ran every 10 to 12 minutes until 7:43pm. Than only every 20 minutes from 7:57pm. Trips around then were crowded but little was done to boost timetables for years.  

Relief came in the 2018 upgrades. Added short trips (finishing at Essendon depot) delivered a 5-10 minute frequency until after 7;30pm. Service after then was upgraded with 15 minute maximum waits until 9:58pm, after which the usual 20 minute evening frequency cut in. 

This upgrade was much larger than that which the 67 received, with 7 trips in the outbound direction alone added. Consequently reversing the 2018 upgrades will have a much bigger effect on the 59's usefulness than doing same to the 67. Having said that scope might exist to make peak period adjustments to the 59 where frequencies are very high while retaining 10 minute maximum waits until 7:30pm and 15 minute maximum waits until 10pm. 


The above are just two examples. I haven't looked in detail at the consequences for other tram routes nor at different times in different directions. However it is clear that if the 2018 upgrades are fully reversed their effect will be substantial. Certainly more than 'minor reductions' for routes like the 59. 

Conclusion

Service cuts to public transport must only ever be a last resort. It is supply led. Cut frequency and you will cut usage. Especially when we're talking about routes that serve corridors with a strong propensity to use public transport for diverse purposes throughout the day such as many of our trams in denser areas. Cuts in off-peak frequency are particularly to be avoided while small peak reductions (where the service remains 'turn up and go') may go un-noticed.

Consequently simply reversing the 2018 upgrades wholesale without considering alternatives such as adjusting peak period service levels only or wider network reform would not constitute sound planning in this regard. 

Friday, June 03, 2022

UN 128: Melbourne public transport's almost unspeakable word


What word am I?

Nothing else is more influential when it comes to getting more people using public transport. 

Almost alone, I determine whether our buses, trams and trains are useful or not.

Despite this, DoT/PTV only rarely sell my benefits. That holds across all audiences, whether it's promoting service upgrades to the public or (apparently) briefing the minister eg for PAEC hearings.

I start with F. 

I am frequency. 

You could say I'm Melbourne public transport's almost unspeakable F-word. 

I'm so unmentionable that if talked about at all it's only in the most abstract terms (eg extra trains per week) rather than something more day-to-day useful like minutes. Like a messiah, my coming is often conditional. In this case, only after infrastructure projects (on which I mostly do not depend) get finished. 

Nothing else is so important yet has had so many excuses made on why you can't have much more of me in Melbourne. In fact the most recent news is about less of me for trams

Even though it is me who should drive every decision made in public transport. Whether it's about infrastructure, networks, service reform and staffing. And ideally DoT/PTV bosses would promote upgrades made to me hard, living as though they'd lose their jobs if patronage does not respond.   

Why is frequency key to public transport ridership? 

Walkers, cyclists and drivers start moving immediately they decide to go somewhere. Whereas transit riders instead must wait for their bus or train to show up. If services are infrequent then that initial wait, and those for any subsequent connections, can easily double or triple total travel time, especially for local trips. It is this, more than in-vehicle travel time, that makes much public transport too slow.   

An analogy, credited to Jarrett Walker, is that having an infrequent bus is like having a gate at the end of your driveway that only opens once an hour. That would be hugely inconvenient, no matter how fast you could drive once you left your gate. The biggest benefit to your mobility then would be getting the gate to open more often. Frequency is freedom as they say. 

Public transport has numerous such gates with waits. Not only at the stop you board but also at every  location you need to change. That's inevitable as being able to reach every wanted destination on one fast direct route is geometrically impossible, especially in a large city. So you need good connections for it to be useful for all but a few trips. 

We know that more frequency makes public transport better for existing riders with improved overall speed, connectivity and reliability. Does providing such a better service attract more usage and if so by how much?

A 2010 ATRF paper by Graham Currie and Alexa Delbosc (both of Monash University) found that it did. They compared premium bus offerings in Adelaide, Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne. The first three had significant bus infrastructure (eg O-bahn, busways, T-ways). Melbourne's SmartBus routes had way less infrastructure but more service, with a 15 minute weekday frequency typical. 

Guess what? Melbourne's approach won more passengers.

Currie and Delbosc found that frequency was by far the biggest influencer of bus ridership per route kilometre. Melbourne's service-heavier SmartBus performed better than infrastructure oriented routes in other cities. While desirable for other reasons, infrastructure, bus accessibility and catchment population density, hardly figured. 

The research can thus be summarised in just three words. Frequency is everything. 

Or, to put it another way, you can do other stuff with buses, but you need frequency to really succeed

My personal view is that you do transport service in this order: Coverage > Span > Frequency > Speed. That is you get the previous to be at least OK before spending big on the next. Here in Melbourne we're pretty good with network coverage but have issues with span and frequency on many bus routes. So we sort out those along with some network reform (that also helps a bit with speed). 

Then once that's pretty good we can do BRT-type speed-up projects (like Bus Wormholes) for the next upgrade stage. The increased speed generates returns that can be reinvested for even more frequency, so usage rises again.

The Currie Delbosc paper also found that transport is supply led. Add road capacity and you get more people driving. Add public transport service and you get more passengers. Both are examples of induced demand. In transport what you get depends on what you fund. 

ATAP, the Australian Transport Assessment and Planning guidelines (p7) indicate the link between increased service and higher patronage. Transport for NSW economic parameter values (p45) confirm this with the greatest patronage elasticity being when off-peak service is boosted. In the long run you can expect passenger numbers to be proportional to service km added as an average.  Here in Melbourne this was attained in 2006 - 2010 where bus service kilometres and patronage both rose by about 25% under Meeting Our Transport Challenges.   

Even a 1:1 increase can improve the cost-recovery ratio as more passenger fares help defray the fixed component of costs. This is most likely during off-peak times where the existing bus fleet is worked harder, attracting higher revenue per bus. But even better results should be possible when frequency is accompanied by network reform as we saw in areas like Brimbank and Wyndham. As for trains, with track and signal infrastructure to maintain, railways have a high proportion of fixed costs, making the financial benefits of higher usage even more notable from low marginal cost off-peak improvements.  


Why do some people say we can't have frequent service?

Despite frequency's uncontestable benefits, there's people who say we can't have it or it's too expensive.  Here's six common objections to frequency and why they're (mostly) wrong. 

1. We are not densely populated enough. This is based on public transport being demand rather than supply driven. As noted before, the latter is more often the case, at least in built-up areas. Anywhere  where there's traffic congestion or parking pressures there's scope for public transport service upgrades.  

2. People love their cars. Where they have a choice people will use whichever transport is most convenient. Where they don't have a choice and the available option is poor they will probably lessen  use of it. Transport improvements will cause an increased take-up on the mode that gets improved. That includes public transport if frequency is boosted. 

3. We don't have enough trains, trams and buses. Except in some fringe areas this is largely not the case. The greatest need for frequency, and the most economical time to provide it, is in off-peak periods. In most cases such an increase is possible by working the existing fleet harder for more of the week. Only when you want higher peak frequencies and for this to extend over a wider area (like might be done in a subsequent upgrade phase) do we need fleet additions, most notably for buses. 

4. We don't have the rail infrastructure. Correct on some outer single track portions of the rail network. But most of Melbourne's suburban network is double track or better. 10 minute service to most stations on most lines is possible on the existing infrastructure, as we know from existing peak timetables.  

5. We still have too many level crossings and boom gates would be forever down. Likely true if peak frequencies are increased on busier lines. However the greatest need is off-peak frequency. With widespread 30 - 40 min gaps between trains, large scope is possible to upgrade to 10 - 20 minute off-peak frequencies without imposing unacceptably long boom down times. 

6. It costs too much. More frequency needs more drivers and more scheduled service kilometres. These impose ongoing rather than largely one-off costs as with infrastructure. Treasuries, in particular, don't like this, despite all the permanent jobs created (which Labor governments, especially, love to quantify and spruik). However the benefits from investments in service increase are high with at least 5:1 recently quoted by Minister Ben Carroll for buses, especially in areas ripe for network reform (with partly offsetting savings possible in some places). 

Higher train frequency would create a robust spine for the network that we currently don't have in suburbs like Croydon and Bayswater where they currently only run every half hour interpeak. The good news for Metro Trains is that just a tiny increase in scheduled services (eg 1% or preferably 2 - 3%) can deliver big upgrades like halving maximum waits at popular travel times. Where it merely comprises working the existing fleet harder on existing infrastructure, the incremental costs of adding frequency is relatively small due to the relatively high fixed costs of railways. And it would generate higher usage which spreads costs across more passengers. 

Organisational distraction: A past problem and present threat

I listed five impediments to bus service reform in a talk to Melbourne University students here

Another issue is focus. Does the Department of Transport adequately advocate frequency's role internally when seeking funding for service upgrades? And if they do get funding do they (PTV) promote it to maximise usage and benefit from the investment made? Both must start with an understanding of frequency's transformative power so they can advocate from a position of conviction, strength and evidence. I'm not sure that this is necessarily yet the case for everyone within DoT.   

Under successive governments DoT and their predecessors have not been immune to wasting time on badly managed, ill-advised or dead-end projects of marginal benefit to passengers. Only occasionally have they had clear air to attend to network building basics. Even rarer is roll-out at the metropolitan-wide scale and pace needed. 

For instance ongoing difficulties with three awkward ticketing systems (scratch, Metcard and Myki) sapped attention for decades. As did issues with operator franchising in the 1990s and 2000s along with their many associated unnecessary rebrandings. More recently there's been a lot of interest in (admittedly worthwhile) infrastructure (although much is hived off to other authorities). Then there's the almost continual restructurings that cause a harmful internal rather than external focus. Even good people can get sidetracked in this manner as manufactured urgency overtakes what's important. 

The Department of Transport can only juggle a few balls at a time. Network planning and service reform has come a poor last in much of the last thirty years due to all the other distractions. This is despite its decisive effect on how useful the network is for the trips people wish to make. 

Behind the scenes it's also important for DoT to convince others of transport's supply-led nature (with implications not only for the benefits of public transport frequency but also the sustainability of congestion relief delivered by major road projects due to induced traffic and the Jevons Paradox).

Benefits of focus

Places like Perth have had a public transport bureaucracy that has been tightly focused on the things that matter. For example there have been no major system renamings since 1986, ticketing has rarely made headlines while operator contracting seems uncontroversial with privatisation accorded its rightful place (ie unimportant compared to service design and delivery). 

Consequently Perth has succeeded at doing more network reform over more years without big backdowns like we saw in Adelaide. This is under both parties of government even when operational funding is limited. As it is now under its heavily infrastructure oriented state government. This is like Victoria but with a 3 year lag as premier McGowan only won office in 2017 and immediately started copying Andrews virtually word for word in transport policy and projects.  

One can only hope that from experience our Department of Transport has learned what is productive and what is not. However the risk of its bosses (who don't all have a transport background) falling for cargo-cult distractions that stop them picking up the (now dusty) ball marked 'good service basics' and redressing a 30+ year backlog in  bus network reform remains high. 

So-called 'demand responsive' or 'flexible route' buses are the current fad. Despite abandonments elsewhere and high per passenger costs limiting scalability, they attract disproportionate unearned attention from senior DoT officials. This is not a rational choice given the pressing reform needs for fixed routes and their greater wider benefits if done. 

A misplaced focus can colour the advice received by Minister Carroll and skew what he speaks of as being important. DoT advice hasn't always served Labor state governments well, as Joel Deane's Catch and Kill reminds us. At the very least it could be desirable for the minister to seek advice from lower levels in the Department where more reality-grounded views may be found. 

And how do you maintain focus? That needs the word we mentioned before. When the value of frequency becomes recognised such that it is no longer so unspeakable we'll know that progress has been made.   

More Building Melbourne's Useful Network items here