Better transport for our housing priority areas

Today's Age carried a story listing ten priority suburban areas for new and likely denser housing. Nominated areas are: Broadmeadows, Camberwell Junction, Chadstone, Epping, Frankston, Moorabbin, Niddrie (Keilor Road), North Essendon, Preston (High Street) and Ringwood.

This obviously triggers need for improved public transport. The government has called for a 'consortium of consultants to identify the transport and community infrastructure needs of the first 10 activity centres'. 

I can't talk about the community infrastructure but I will say a few words about transport. All right now and without you paying a cent. Aren't blogs wonderful? 

What will follow is broadly consistent with my Future Frequent Network. That's the basic grid of 10 minute service across all modes which you can see on the interactive map. You can also select layers for 'Useful Network' routes every 20 minutes. Together these provide a comprehensive network within 800 metres of most people and jobs. The FFN is just lines on maps and doesn't talk about capacity or speed (also needed) but it's still way ahead of anything the government's published for a long time. And the FFN is high impact, likely getting more people on to public transport than any single mega-project (though it would also feed, support and complement them). 

Three years ago the government announced six social housing growth areas. I listed their main public transport needs and opportunities here. My stress was on what was cost-effective and achievable so that the improved service is running as soon as people move in. 

I'll do the same for the ten housing priority areas below: 

Broadmeadows

- Rebuild Broadmeadows station to be a fit for purpose mixed use interchange
- Boost Craigieburn line frequency from every 20-40 min to every 10 min
- Upfield line upgrade including duplication, extension and a new station with bus interchange at Campbellfield
- SmartBuses upgrades to every 10 min 7 days with a rerouted 902 'SRL SmartBus' linking Melbourne Airport, Gladstone Park, Broadmeadows, Campbellfield, Keon Park and Greensborough. 
- Fast and frequent bus corridors on Aitken Bvd and Mickleham Rd feeding Broadmeadows
- A new direct bus route to Coburg (potentially by extending the 527 via Widford St)
- Better connections to jobs on Hume Hwy/Campbellfield
- Local bus upgrades with longer operating hours, higher 7 day frequency and maximum 20 min waits to surrounding areas including Meadow Heights and Dallas. 
- Major walking and cycling improvements

Camberwell Junction 

- Boost Ringwood line frequency to every 10 min or better at all times
- Maximum 10 min waits on all tram routes with boosted priority for higher speed
- Extend Burke Rd tram south to Caulfield and north to at least Kew East. Commence frequent bus service in interim period. 
- Reform bus 624 on Tooronga Rd to operate as separate Caulfield - La Trobe Unversity route running at high frequencies and with long operating hours.
- Commence new bus route from Victoria Gardens to Elsternwick area via Burnley station to provide an efficient north-south link (potentially reformed Route 604). 
- Upgrade all bus routes to run 7 days with higher frequencies especially on weekends, especially north-south routes, notably Chandler Hwy, Tooronga Rd and Balwyn Rd with network reforms also required. 
- Major walking and cycling improvements

Chadstone

- Boost service on 900 and 903 to run every 10 min or better 7 days
- Build large scale bus priority then Bus Rapid Transit (potentially grade separated on sections) to speed both north-south Warrigal Rd and east-west Princes Hwy connectivity
- Extend Alamein line to Oakleigh with a station in the Chadstone area
- Boost service on surrounding train lines (Dandenong & Glen Waverley) for maximum 10 min waits
- Extend tram route 3 to Chadstone
- Boost weekend frequencies on all buses to match weekday frequencies (short term) including 7 day service on routes currently without it eg 612, 800, 802 & 804. 
- Reform and simplify bus networks for simpler routes, each with 20 min maximum waits and long term operating hours. Priorities to include (i) combining 693 and 742 as boosted and extended 693 on Ferntree Gully Rd, (ii) 802, 804 & 862 combining into two routes including reform in Dandenong area, (iii) 627, 767, 822 reform to provide for frequent and direct East Boundary Rd route to Southland and (iv) Reform of 623 and 624 west of Chadstone to provide simpler and more frequent 623 to St Kilda via Caulfield station. 
- Major walking and cycling improvements

Epping 

- Boost rail services on Mernda line to run every 10 min at all times
- Boost 901 to operate every 10 min or better between at least Roxburgh Park and South Morang
- Bus Rapid Transit from Wollert to Plenty Rd via Epping Plaza and Epping station
- 10 minute frequent bus corridor from Epping Station up Epping Rd to Craigieburn Rd. 
- Reform of local routes including removing kinks (eg 556), extensions to major activity centres (566) and boosting frequencies to 20 min or better
- Major walking and cycling improvements

Frankston

- A new northern entrance for Frankston station to greatly improve walking connectivity to trains
- Minor improvements to train frequency to deliver 10 min service over more hours
- Upgraded Route 901 frequency with 10 min maximum waits 7 days
- Upgrade Route 791 to Cranbourne to operate more frequently over longer hours
- Reconfigure Frankston CBD buses to provide frequent north-south corridors to reduce need to change at Frankston station for local trips eg from hospital and Monash University.  
- Major bus network reforms in Karingal, Frankston south, Frankston East and Carrum Downs areas including more 7 day coverage, longer hours, simpler routes and more coverage. 
- Major walking and cycling improvements

Moorabbin

- Minor improvements to train frequency to deliver 10 min service over more hours
- 824 bus on South Rd extended to Brighton or Brighton Beach and upgraded to run longer hours and higher frequency, especially on weekends
- Reformed bus routes in Cheltenham/Highett area to deliver a fast and direct Sandringham - Bay Rd - Southland bus
- Local bus reform including a frequent East Boundary Rd bus to Chadstone (reformed 767),  merging complex 811/812 routes, connections to Moorabbin jobs and improved east-west connections from local stations. 
- A new Southland - Nepean Hwy - Moorabbin - Elsternwick route operating 7 days incorporating current limited service 823 bus. 
- Longer operating hours and upgraded weekend frequency on local bus routes including 708, 822, 825 and 828. 
- Major walking and cycling improvements

Niddrie (Keilor Road)

- Boost Craigieburn train frequency to every 10 min or better
- Boost tram 59 to every 10 min or better at times it currently isn't. Seek speed & accessibility improvements. 
- Improve tram/bus/shopping centre connectivity at Airport West
- Simplify the complex 469 bus by splitting at Airport West
- Major walking and cycling improvements

North Essendon

- Boost Craigieburn train frequency to every 10 min or better
- Boost tram 59 to every 10 min or better at times it currently isn't. Seek speed & accessibility improvements. 
- Improve tram/bus/shopping centre connectivity at Airport West
- Improve bus 903 weekend frequency and improve currently poor physical connectivity between bus and train at Essendon station
- Simplify the complex 469 bus by splitting at Airport West
- Major walking and cycling improvements

Preston (High Street) 

- Boost rail services on Mernda line to run every 10 min at all times
- Merging the 527 and 903 to provide a simplified east-west bus between Heidelberg, Northland, Preston and Coburg for little cost operating every 10 minutes or better
- Simplify 513 and 514 bus on Bell St to operate as a single route to Greensborough with longer operating hours and a 10-15 min 7 day frequency for improved east-west connectivity. 
- Off-peak tram frequency upgrades to cut waits to 10 min 
-  Simplification of bus network with more frequent service, improved directness and logical termini involving routes such as 552, 553 and 567.
- Major walking and cycling improvements

Ringwood

- Upgrading train services to simplify peak timetables and cut maximum waits from 30 to 10 min until last train (achieved by operating Belgrave and Lilydale legs every 20 min as happens on weekends)
- Boost 901 to Frankston to operate every 10 min 7 days
- Boost 670 bus to run longer hours and maximum 20 min waits on any day
- A new Canterbury Rd bus to Box Hill operating every 20 min or better via Forest Hill SC
- A major reform of local buses, including adding 7 day service, simplifying routes and adding coverage
- Major walking and cycling improvements

Conclusion

That's a quick list. There's no doubt many omissions. Ideas welcome in comments below. 

Highlights from MTF's ZEBs and Beyond Forum

On Tuesday October 25 the Metropolitan Transport Forum held the Zero Emission Buses and Beyond forum as part of Bus Awareness Week. Addressed by Gabrielle Williams, the new minister for Public and Active Transport, it had some great presentations and discussions. Here they are: 

Minister's address

Victoria's Transition to Zero Emission Buses

Fair Share Cities: Gender and planning

Auckland’s New Network – a Bus Reform case study

Dr John Stone presents a frequent grid network for Melbourne's west

Panel discussion on FlexiRide bus performance in growth areas

Above has a particularly exciting mention of possible new GAIC funding for growth area bus services to be announced in December 2023. 

Watch one or watch them all. You'll be glad you did! 

Research spotlight: How long do residents in new estates have to wait for bus routes?

Nothing much by me today but I can bring you something both better and more important. 

It's RMIT research on how long it takes for new estates in Melbourne to get bus routes put in. 

This is absolutely vital. Because people are most likely to change their transport habits when they face a major change in their life circumstances. That can include a new work location, large changes in income or (especially) moving house.

This is because peoples' habits are shaped by the transport they find (or don't find) in their new location. If cycling is easier and parking is harder then that will change how they get around. And in the long term households (especially couples) will sell their second (and sometimes even only) car. Thus further decreasing car usage.

Conversely if people move to an area with no public transport then high car use will be entrenched as part of daily life from Day One. Couples getting by with one car will buy another even if they'd rather use the money for another purpose (including affording the basics for those on low incomes) since having one car per adult is pretty much a pre-requisite to finding or keeping work. Or even a basic level of community participation. 

Public transport connections established well after most people move in will still get used but since people have bought all their cars usage won't be as high compared to if it was established early in a suburb's establishment  when it had a chance shape peoples travel habits from the start.   

Thus having even a basic bus service early in a new suburb's life is essential to give it the best chance of success. And to allow residents the choice of buying only the cars they want to have, not those that poor transport forces them to have. Getting more people on public transport right from their neighbourhood has wider benefits, especially if both road connections and parking at the nearest station are limited.

I've written multiple times about new suburbs waiting for public transport well after people have moved in. How typical is this experience in outer Melbourne? 

You're about to find out thanks to this great new paper by researchers Annette Kroen, Steve Pemberton & Chris De Gruyter. In a nutshell 3 to 4 years it typical, though waits can be up to 14 years. And, while it's beyond the research's scope, I'd argue that 30 to 40 year established areas like Rowville, Lysterfield, Ringwood East, Croydon, Frankston South and many more remain lacking without a full service too, getting, at best unreliable or limited hours FlexiRide services. 

The above doesn't do the research justice. So I think you should read the paper here. 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1077291X23000292

It's also worth nothing that even where there is service the limitations of leap-frog development, the lack of through roads and/or highly conditional GAIC funding can lead to a pattern of multiple overlapping and infrequent routes  such as in Clyde North where not a single bus runs continuously from Berwick to Cranbourne, despite both being destinations where people would wish to go. Long-term government uninterest in bus network reform and slow internal processes (when there is interest) can mean that even though suitable through roads get built and level crossings removed, it can take years (sometimes decades) for buses to get routes that take advantage of these works.  

In contrast things were done differently (and better) a century ago. For example here is a case (from a century ago) where the bus was put in before all the blocks were developed.