With Jacinta Allan becoming premier and Ben Carroll deputy premier (and Minister for Education), it was inevitable that there were going to be changes in who oversees transport after the resignation of Daniel Andrews.
Hence it's a welcome to Essendon MLA Danny Pearson who adds Transport Infrastructure and the Suburban Rail Loop to his Assistant Treasurer role and Dandenong MLA Gabrielle Williams who becomes the Minister for Public and Active Transport, replacing Ben Carroll in the public transport role. Ministers Melissa Horne retains roads, Sonya Kilkenny retains planning and Josh Bull retains his parliamentary secretary role.
I expect Mr Pearson to bring his financial management background to major transport projects, whose costs are escalating due to labour, materials and rising interest rates. The fact that other countries (and even other states) can build transport infrastructure cheaper than we can also needs a good hard look.
As for public transport services, we don't yet know what Ms Williams has in mind. However there is mounting community demands for service increases, given V/Line weekend crowding, embarrassingly long evening Metro train waits, changing post-pandemic travel patterns and a backlog in 7 day bus services in new and established suburbs alike.
Legacy of recent past ministers
Before we start on all that, let's look at recent past ministers (earlier ones discussed here).
Previous premier Daniel Andrews and current premier (then transport minister) Jacinta Allan are most identified with 'Big Build' policies, especially in transport, after Labor's 2014 victory. Everything was about major project-based infrastructure, most notably the Metro Tunnel, level crossing removals and most ambitiously, the Suburban Rail Loop. Service, planning and network reform matters, despite being the most cost-effective measures to immediately improve public transport, were sidelined, as explained here. I discussed the Andrews government's record at keeping its promises (up to 2022) here.
Reform of ministerial arrangements after the 2018 election brought first time MP Melissa Horne straight into the public transport portfolio. This time coincided with 'peak infrastructure', still handled by Jacinta Allan, with little progress on the service side.
The Adem Somyurek affair brought ruptions to the government that resulted in the ministerial reshuffle that brought Ben Carroll to the public transport portfolio. Sometimes seen riding public transport, Mr Carroll immediately said that improving the long-neglected bus network was a priority with wide benefits and high returns for the money spent. Well-regarded by stakeholders, he presided over the introduction of minimum passing distance laws around bikes, launched Victoria's Bus Plan in 2021 and Victoria's Tram Plan two years later.
It became permissible again to talk about bus network reform with modest upgrades funded in the 2021 and 2022 state budgets. However a tight budgetary environment, a continued reluctance to fund service initiatives and shifting attention to items like bus recontracting and electrification made service reform marginal once again, with little extra funded in the 2023 state budget.
To put it crudely, the big projects that Jacinta Allan touched got money (often billions) while smaller (but very cost-effective) initiatives in Ben Carroll's area seemed to be 'frozen out' of the government's agenda. Greater support for these in party caucus and cabinet would have helped, but the infrastructure-first tendency remained strong, especially in the dominant Socialist Left faction (which gained numbers since some switched to it just after the 2022 election). Young Labor, in the party's organisational wing, does however back improved PT service, with a motion recently carried.
Power relationships in the bureaucracy also seemed to have shifted with the new Department of Transport being bigger (though less influential on service matters) than the old but more targeted PTV, with infrastructure project agencies having sway reflecting their large budgets under this government.
The department was further enlarged after the 2022 election with it incorporating Planning (hence DTP) with minister Sonya Kilkenny. Ms Allan's title was subtly expanded from 'Transport Infrastructure' to 'Transport and Infrastructure', which along with her gaining the Deputy Premier role, strengthened her (and infrastructure's) dominance of the portfolio.
Mr Carroll appeared to have a win for his seat when the scope of the Airport Rail project was expanded to include a much-demanded station at Keilor East but this became embarrassing when it was announced that airport rail's fate was subject to a federal review. The post-2022 election reshuffle retained him in public transport but swapped roads for wider industry portfolio roles, effectively weakening his coverage of transport matters. It seemed that he could have his bus plan but not the funding to properly implement it.
Although the Andrews government attracted criticism from what you might call transport's 'serious experts' (including the Auditor-General) for lacking an overarching transport plan, it could at least argue that (at least until recently) it had a better record than the Cain/Kirner and Bracks/Brumby governments in doing what it said it promised, even if some things done presented opportunity costs.
Opportunities for the new Public and Active Transport Minister
There's quite a few. With the Bus and Tram plans, the agenda (especially the problems to be solved) is sketched out in more detail than was the case three years ago when Ben Carroll took over.
On the debit side, interest costs are biting and the budget is increasingly under pressure. While that may make recurrent funding for service increases hard to find, the good news is that the amounts involved are relatively small and initiatives can be targeted to areas of greatest need or patronage potential. And where it's simple operating hours and weekend frequency upgrades on existing routes you are not subject to delays due to public consultation or fleet expansions.
Cost-effective service upgrades in the 2024 Budget
Of particular interest to Ms Williams will be that pretty much on Day 1 of her ministry DTP will already be planning its agenda for the May 2024 State Budget, before initiatives go to the Expenditure Review Subcommittee. Therefore, in the words of her friend and former premier, "there is not a moment to waste".
Practical transport service agenda for the Mulgrave by-election
In relation to bus service levels, the minister's seat of Dandenong is also the least served when considering the proportion of routes that operate 7 days to minimum service standards. Politically this is of immediate interest as 4 out of 6 Dandenong's non-seven day routes (800, 802, 804 & 814) also serve the ex-premier's seat of Mulgrave with a by-election soon. Seven day service upgrades would send a signal that the government cares about local services and is willing to invest in improvements (like better transport) that improve access to jobs and address cost of living issues.
Tackling long term issues for public transport
(7) Falling fare compliance, with a deterioration on buses (especially) from the pandemic when they went cashless with on-bus top ups via card also unavailable.
Added to this are the operational challenges of bringing the Metro Tunnel to fruition in 2025 along with complementary train, tram and bus network changes. Along with continued effort to make travel as good as it can be for those whose travel will be affected by the continuing program of level crossing removals and other major projects.
The state opposition has also had a reshuffle of some of its portfolios including transport. Former leader Matthew Guy takes over the public transport role from Richard Riordan.
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