Bus network reform seems to have taken a back seat lately. Zero emissions buses and franchising appear to have the limelight. While important in their own ways, they are peripheral to the 'main game' for the bus network. That is whether its routes and timetables benefit the most number of users, and through this, the general community.
Bus Plan on the rocks?
Many hoped the 2021 Bus Plan would revive interest in bus services and reform. While some good things happened it hasn't exactly got off to a cracking pace. And 2023 wasn't the plan's finest year.
For example, partly because it lacked a specific implementable program, the May 2023 state budget gave it short shrift with little new funding for bus services. This caused me to query its health in June. October saw it lose its originator and chief ministerial advocate in Ben Carroll. By November Bus Plan's status within DTP slumped so low that it received no mention in its 2022-2023 annual report and was no longer accessible on the revamped DTP website.
We are also still awaiting the 'Bus Reform Implementation Plan' that was to give meat to the rather thin bones in 2021's 'plan for a plan'. The nearest we have to a hint of what's in store is the major bus network reviews for north and north-east Melbourne announced in September 2022. The last progress update the public got on those was 6 months ago.
IV's Fast, frequent and fair
More so than DTP lately, Infrastructure Victoria has pursued bus network reform with gusto. It's published several papers in the last two years. Their latest, Fast, frequent and fair: how buses can better connect Melbourne, came out only yesterday. It draws on numerous references, including many Melbourne on Transit items. There's some wonderful maps that show service hours and frequency inequalities across Melbourne. And there's ideas for reformed bus networks in parts of Melbourne's north and east, fitting within DTP's review agenda above.
Recommendation 8 regrettably perpetuates IV's fetish with modal fares despite these making politically acceptable bus network reform harder. They should have instead stuck to making short and/or off-peak trips cheaper relative to longer trips while avoiding modal penalties. I'd also have picked some different corridors for the proposed BRT routes. Some, like their one from Mernda, duplicate trains and a east-west corridor would have been better.
Overall though Fast, frequent and fair is a very good paper that the government should sit up and take notice of. In conjunction with rail frequency upgrades and some small tram extensions it would give Melbourne an excellent public transport network suitable for far more trips than currently. And, as the IV report reminds us, bus reform is extremely cost-effective and can generate very strong benefit/cost ratios.
Where might revived bus service reform happen?
DTP nominated Melbourne's north and north-east over a year ago. While arguably lower priorities for service than high needs areas like Dandenong and growth areas in the west and north, the area has more than its fair share of complex, unreformed and even over-serviced routes. While DTP hasn't released anything specific on what a reformed northern suburbs bus network might look like, others have.
Examples include IV's Fast, frequent and fair optimised network for the north-east (Fig 13) and Networking the North from the Victorian Transport Action Group. The latter is the more detailed but reforms were divided into 26 potentially independent packages to allow a staged implementation. My recent list of cost-effective bus upgrades also presented some ideas for the north.
Today I'll list five steps for potential bus reform in IV's north-east bus reform study area. This is an area roughly between Brunswick/Merri Creek in the west and La Trobe University/Mernda in the east. Or the cities of Darebin and Whittlesea, though there'll inevitably be some overflows.
I'll first list the simplest steps, ie the bottom rungs of the bus reform pyramid, and then move to more advanced changes that would really transform the network.
Catching a bus in Melbourne is a chancy exercise, especially on weekends and public holidays. You don't necessarily know what timetable will run or even if the service will operate at all. This is because the MOTC program to standardise service arrangements made a good start but was never completed, even on some quite important routes. This can be addressed with the following low-cost upgrades:
a. Abolish reduced service summer timetables on Routes 503 and 506 so the same service runs all year. Many more routes used to have reduced summer timetables but no longer do. Hence finishing the job off involves only a few extra service hours per year to make the network free of summer timetables.
b. Introduce public holiday service to all routes with Saturday service. Currently this is a mish-mash with no logic in what runs and what doesn't. While most routes that run Saturdays run that timetable on public holidays, there is a substantial minority of routes that operate Saturdays but not public holidays. The consequence of the latter is confusion amongst passengers. This is exacerbated by PTV frequently getting timetables and communications wrong as arrangements are too complex for even them to understand. Service may also be out of kilter with demand (eg some shopping centre routes not running on Boxing Day eg 549) while some neighbourhoods (eg parts of Reservoir on the 558) may not get buses for days on end over Christmas and Easter.
Northern area timetables that need standardised holiday arrangements include 506, 526, 538, 549, 550, 558 and 559. Routes 503, 512, 536 and 548 are close to the study area and run by operators that serve it so should also be upgraded to simplify rostering and communication. Indeed the same could be said for Melbourne generally as doing only 15 more routes would fix this problem everywhere and the low cost makes it worth it.
Step 2: 7 day upgrades and minimum standards upgrades
Many routes in Melbourne's north don't run 7 days or finish early at night. In other cases there may not be any Saturday afternoon service, reflecting pre-1980s shop trading hours. That limits the usefulness of buses for many work and leisure trips.
Routes in the study area lacking 7 day service include: 350, 389, 503, 506, 526, 546, 548, 549, 550, 551, 558, 559 and 609. Those in bold are relatively simple routes that could be upgraded on their current alignment, or with only very minor straightening (see Step 3). In addition Route 251 runs 7 days but needs a minor increase in operating hours to bring it to minimum service standards.
The other routes have major problems meaning you might only upgrade them after other reforms (assuming they survive at all). For instance 350, 550 and 551 have relatively little unique coverage while 548 and (especially) 558 have complex reversals and weak termini. These may require reform in conjunction with other routes to prevent the issue of upgrading a route's timetable only to delete or greatly modify it a short time later. 609 has almost all these problems and very few weekday trips.
Step 3: Timetable harmonisation with trains and minor straightening
The study area is full of bus routes with timetables that don't evenly meet trains. For example around Reservoir/Epping it is common for buses every ~23 minutes to not meet trains every 20 minutes. Example non-harmonised routes include 517, 526, 548, 552, 553, 555, 556, 558, 566, 567 and others. Then there is the 577 which sought to feed trains by operating its two buses per hour at an irregular interval.
Some of these are very complex routes (including indirectness, overlaps and weak termini) that need other reforms too. Out of the list the most promising to get to every 20 minutes are 517 (potentially shorten to operate Northland - Greensborough only with other arrangements for St Helena) and 556 (remove Derby St loop). There is a chance that the latter may free up enough time for an improvement on another route such as 555.
Route 552 retains an archaic weekend timetable with high Saturday morning frequency (15 min), a low Saturday afternoon frequency (30 min) and a non-clockface 45 min Sunday frequency, none harmonising with trains. It may be an overall better outcome to aim for a 20 min all day Saturday frequency along with an improved Sunday frequency (even if 40 min) and a potential stronger northern terminus eg Keon Park Station.
Harmonisation is desirable for the other routes but may be best done with wider reforms, some of which are discussed later, to maximise efficiency.
Step 4: 10 strong 7 day east-west Connector or Rapid routes
These involve weekend frequency increases, improved operating hours (IV suggests 6am - 11pm) and stronger termini. Most upgrades are operating hours only, so do not increase peak fleet requirements. Candidate routes include:
390: Longer operating hours and service boosted to every 20 min 7 days to provide an efficient link across the outer north harmonised with trains.
506: All the abovementioned upgrades plus longer operating hours and 20 min weekend frequencies (similar to weekdays).
508: Longer operating hours and 20 min weekend frequencies (similar to weekdays). Review eastern terminus. This is a potential Rapid route with potential for the existing 15 min peak frequency to be operated all day.
510: Longer operating hours and 20 min weekend frequencies (similar to weekdays). Potential extension to Heidelberg for a stronger eastern terminus, though this will increase the bus requirement.
514: Incorporates 513 trips with operating hours and weekend upgrades to provide 7 day 20 min service between Glenroy and Greensborough. Other arrangements should apply for Lower Plenty/Eltham portion of 513. The main benefit here would be a single simple route along Bell St along with upgraded weekend services.
517: Abovementioned split at Greensborough with portion to Northland with longer operating hours and 20 min weekend frequencies (similar to reformed weekday service).
561: Longer operating hours and 20 min weekend frequencies (similar to weekdays)
565: A new route created from the Greensborough - Lalor half of the very complex 566 but extending to Epping Plaza and potentially Wollert. Longer operating hours and every 20 min 7 days. An alternative could be IV's idea to reroute the 901 via this alignment but this would require a replacement route for McDonalds Rd.
570: Longer operating hours and 20 min weekend frequencies (similar to weekdays). Examine scope for simplification at Plenty Rd end in conjunction with 564.
904: A new Rapid route every 10 min formed from consolidating the existing 527 and 903 between Coburg and Heidelberg with an option for a new 903 La Trobe University connection from Doncaster via Heidelberg. While the most complex to implement out of this list its value for money would be high with the strongest likely patronage. More details on the 904 Murray Rd Megabus here.
In addition to the above, Route 386 already has a 20 min combined frequency along its overlap with 387. However it could gain some extra Sunday - Thursday night trips (being the busier of the pair) to add to the network's versatility down The Lakes Boulevard and to provide night connections from the 86 tram.
Step 5: Up to 6 strong north-south Connector routes
These involve weekend frequency increases, improved operating hours (IV suggests 6am - 11pm) on existing routes. There are also some new routes that will require significant changes to the existing network for maximum efficiency. More radically maximum cost-effectiveness may require use of resources obtained by rationalising low usage or duplicative routes in the Greensborough/Eltham area. Candidate routes include:
356/357: Upgrade both with longer hours and each route every 20 min 7 days for a 10 min combined frequency via Epping Rd. Commencing both at Epping should allow easier scheduling for a more even offset. Option exists to extend routes north to intersect with Route 390.
548: La Trobe University - Camberwell route operating over longer hours and at least every 20 min 7 days. All trips would operate directly with Springthorpe estate served by a separate local route. Networking the North has a more ambitious version of this via Heidelberg that it calls the Route 550 with a potential extension as far south as Caulfield. This is a potential future Rapid route.
555:Abovementioned upgrade to every 20 min plus longer hours and 20 min weekend frequency.
556: Abovementioned route simplification for better directness, upgrade to every 20 min plus longer hours and 20 min weekend frequency.
567: Reformed route extended north to La Trobe University and south to Hawthorn / Swinburne University via Chandler Hwy in conjunction with network reform west of Northland and replacement of 609. Networking the North calls this the Route 560 with more detail presented there. This is a potential Rapid route.
NEW: Reservoir - Epping. This would be a new Connector style route (ie every 20 min) serving Reservoir West and Edgars Rd, with the latter replacing the 357. This connects more people to Reservoir Station and enables reform of the existing 558 which can become a more direct east-west route from Reservoir to Campbellfield Shopping Centre and arguably onward to Glenroy merging with the existing 536. This would greatly improve connectivity to a lot of places from the west including La Trobe University which is accessible from Reservoir via the 301 shuttle.
Concept network maps
Only show the 7 day Connector or better routes. Coverage type routes operating at lower frequencies are not shown. More discussion of what these might look like appear in Networking the North, noting that many potential combinations exist.
Resourcing and conclusion
This reformed bus network for the cities of Darebin and Whittlesea will require additional funding, though some very simple changes (eg splitting 566) need not add service kilometres. The gains from it are however high, especially with regards to 7 day service, connectivity to major destinations and cross-Yarra service. This network is consistent with the aims of the IV report of improved directness, frequency and simplicity without it likely to be too controversial. Note again that it emphasises connector routes so I haven't discussed potential new growth area routes in the north that may be needed.
Potential sources for resourcing trade-offs exist outside the review area, notably around Greensborough, Eltham and Diamond Creek where there are overlapping but not necessarily heavily used routes, including semi-rural segments of the 901 orbital. Within the study area there are routes like 350 that do not add significant unique coverage, the substantial overlap between 527 and 903, the terrible 553, the dead end 526 and the weak terminused 567. Also some areas like Bastings St Northcote and parts Heidelberg can have routes removed without sacrificing 400m coverage. Some might also query the service levels of routes like 382 and 555 that parallel tram or train lines and look at those for savings. Having said that the above steps are easily scalable to suit resources and priorities.
Comments are appreciated and can be left below.
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1 comment:
A re-routed 553 could be a connector route that services High St, then turns to connect the terminus of the route 11 tram, then goes up Gilbert Rd to Reservoir as a bus extension of the tram route. I think this would generate lot of patronage and be very useful for shoppers in Preston and to provide a high quality connection from the route 11 tram to Reservoir.
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