I reflected on 2022's achievements and events in the public transport service space here. On the broader scene, 2023 was most notable for the retirement of premier Daniel Andrews, his replacement with Jacinta Allan and the elevation of Ben Carroll to Deputy Premier. The resultant reshuffle led to Gabrielle Williams gaining the renamed Public and Active Transport portfolio.
In terms of what got done, transport's main service successes in 2023 were initiatives funded in 2022's budget. Almost all of these got implemented and are proving beneficial. However there have been few announcements of anything new. This can be attributed to the state government's underwhelming 2023 budget (for buses & PT service generally) and its now apparently in-recess Bus Plan that emerged with so much promise over 900 days ago.
Days since Victoria's Bus Plan was launched
link to count-up Bus Plan clock
That not even the promised 'Bus Reform Implementation Plan' has come out after the better part of three years is a poor reflection on the Bus Plan and its lowly status within government. In fact it's hard to find many government activities that the previous premier's famous quote that "we're not wasting a single minute" was any less true.
Still 2023 was not all bad for bus reform. Substantial research has come from the Committee for Melbourne and Infrastructure Victoria. Both bodies recommended similar - ie that buses must be made more direct, frequent and useful similar to my Future Frequent Network. This work has sparked significant media coverage, raising the profile of community campaigns across Melbourne which really kicked up a notch in 2023. Buses also got a good run in parliamentary questions and speeches during the year.
The government might claim it's broke but they have nowhere to hide given that Melbourne's transport needs continue to grow and buses remain the most cost-effective means of delivering the frequent 7 day service the community needs. Questions have also been asked about GAIC and the possibility of more or better use of funds from this tax to fund improved growth area bus services.
Maybe this will be the future of bus reform? DTP's recipe of releasing a shallow 'plan for a plan', doing a few good things at the start, then wasting nearly 3 years on an increasingly improbable implementation plan as the state's finances deteriorated has turned out a dud.
This course of action was taken despite there never being mystery about what needs to be done. After all adequate data existed to assess priorities back in 2021 when the Bus Plan came out. Not to mention significant prior planning work, most of which the public doesn't know about.
That not even the promised 'Bus Reform Implementation Plan' has come out after the better part of three years is a poor reflection on the Bus Plan and its lowly status within government. In fact it's hard to find many government activities that the previous premier's famous quote that "we're not wasting a single minute" was any less true.
Still 2023 was not all bad for bus reform. Substantial research has come from the Committee for Melbourne and Infrastructure Victoria. Both bodies recommended similar - ie that buses must be made more direct, frequent and useful similar to my Future Frequent Network. This work has sparked significant media coverage, raising the profile of community campaigns across Melbourne which really kicked up a notch in 2023. Buses also got a good run in parliamentary questions and speeches during the year.
The government might claim it's broke but they have nowhere to hide given that Melbourne's transport needs continue to grow and buses remain the most cost-effective means of delivering the frequent 7 day service the community needs. Questions have also been asked about GAIC and the possibility of more or better use of funds from this tax to fund improved growth area bus services.
Maybe this will be the future of bus reform? DTP's recipe of releasing a shallow 'plan for a plan', doing a few good things at the start, then wasting nearly 3 years on an increasingly improbable implementation plan as the state's finances deteriorated has turned out a dud.
This course of action was taken despite there never being mystery about what needs to be done. After all adequate data existed to assess priorities back in 2021 when the Bus Plan came out. Not to mention significant prior planning work, most of which the public doesn't know about.
DTP should have pondered less and done more, starting with simple and cheap to grow their currently stunted yet byzantine delivery capabilities. Then new bus routes would no longer take longer to implement than major capital works like level crossing removals and growth areas would get the service they need sooner.
Minister Gabrielle Williams and DTP secretary Paul Younis could draw inspiration from none other than both the previous and current premiers. While some in 2014 looked at Labor's level crossing removal promise with incredulity, thinking it couldn't be done, it was. Ahead of schedule with the program subsequently expanded.
Yes money's tighter today but a lot of bus (and indeed off-peak train) service boosts are incredibly cost-effective. Especially when you add the broader cost of living and housing access benefits of a more extensive frequent 7 day public transport network. And that the operational costs involved are easier to predict than the current runaway build bills for certain major projects.
Although they've spent nearly a decade spurning service (and reform of it) in favour of big build infrastructure, if this government wants to do something beneficial and affordable in public transport, it's going to have to revive interest in service basics like useful routes, operating hours and frequency. And 2024 will be a critical year to bed down the changes needed before the 2026 state election.
The clock is ticking. The time to start is now.
Minister Gabrielle Williams and DTP secretary Paul Younis could draw inspiration from none other than both the previous and current premiers. While some in 2014 looked at Labor's level crossing removal promise with incredulity, thinking it couldn't be done, it was. Ahead of schedule with the program subsequently expanded.
Yes money's tighter today but a lot of bus (and indeed off-peak train) service boosts are incredibly cost-effective. Especially when you add the broader cost of living and housing access benefits of a more extensive frequent 7 day public transport network. And that the operational costs involved are easier to predict than the current runaway build bills for certain major projects.
Although they've spent nearly a decade spurning service (and reform of it) in favour of big build infrastructure, if this government wants to do something beneficial and affordable in public transport, it's going to have to revive interest in service basics like useful routes, operating hours and frequency. And 2024 will be a critical year to bed down the changes needed before the 2026 state election.
The clock is ticking. The time to start is now.
2 comments:
If it’s going to take longer than we first expected to get large scale bus reform, we should instead ask for more detailed studies of the benefits. Conventional models estimate that if frequency is doubled patronage would increase by 50%. This does not include longer term effects of more households being car free or car lite. Some of the best societal returns on increases in frequency could be in the growth areas like Tarniet and Craigieburn where cash-strapped households could live with a single car if the buses ran every 20 minutes rather than every 40. How well do the conventional models capture these benefits? The pilot 20 minute service in the Cranbourne area could be a good test case, eg comparing household car ownership in the service area with poorly served nearby areas.
Agree Tarneit would likely deliver high returns from 20 min services. Cranbourne though is weaker - their 2016 network has a lot of 20 min service but is less productive than Tarneit. Still Cranbourne has many routes with weak termini & dead ends, particularly in the Clyde North area where more frequency is desirable. As for more studies, are these really needed given bus reform has been studied to death with IV's work the latest contribution?
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