Thursday, May 29, 2025

What passengers really think about Victoria's PT network

 

They're improving at publicly reporting some things (eg bus reliability a few years back and  patronage more recently) but Victoria's Department of Transport & Planning still operates under the presumption that much other network performance information should be kept to itself.

This sensitivity is despite (a) the taxpayer paying the overwhelming bulk of operating costs for public transport (especially in this age of 'free' or nearly free travel for more and more trips) and (b) at least some of what the department doesn't want us to see being pretty benign, hardly embarrassing and sometimes even praiseworthy. Not that embarrassment should be a criteria for data being withheld. 

Could commercial confidentiality be an issue? 

Even arguments over commercial confidentiality due to private operators don't hold as much water any more (if they ever did). This is because pretty much every renegotiation of the public transport operating franchises (we're up to MR5) in the last 20 years has transferred risk from the franchisee (the private operator) to the franchisor (the state). Examples of risks reverting to the state include patronage and fare revenue. And low performance penalties may be capped rather than open-ended.

This may be because, as the pandemic showed, risk is extremely difficult to cost. If the government underestimates risks or costs relative to what they pay the operators then the operators either walk out (eg National Express in 2002) or perform very badly (eg Transdev for buses in 2017). In both cases the government had to intervene. Or if the government overestimates risk relative to what they pay the operators then the operators get an unearned windfall gain. In both cases taxpayers carry the bill.  

The state seems to have increasingly recognised that. As risk is notoriously hard to cost the state has kept most of it to itself. When you're as big as the state self-insurance is not a bad approach. It also reduces uncertainty for private operators.    

That should have a cash value in the sense that the state should be able to demand lower margins as operator payments are easier to calculate and modest profits are pretty much guaranteed. One hopes that DTP negotiators exploit their monopsony position to squeeze as much service kilometres per dollar as possible out of our transport operators while keeping maintenance, operating and customer service standards.

These changed circumstances also mean that DTP/PTV (a) needs to be better at service innovation, marketing  and growing patronage (as operators have few levers or incentives to do this themselves) and (b) can ease off in using 'commercial in confidence' as an excuse to deny reasonable requests for information. DTP's performance on both is debatable but that's another story. 

Key points from the report

Now back to what passengers think. 

DTP commissions quarterly surveys to track customer attitudes to public transport and its service delivery. These Klein Research reports are treated as internal documents. 

The Public Transport Users Association lodged an FOI request to see one. DTP refused.

However PTUA successfully appealed to the Office of the Victorian Information Commissioner . 

As a result everyone can read the CXI Quarterly Report Q3 FY24 on the Right to Know website here

I recommend you read it.

Below are some of the take-away messages I found: 

* Passenger safety and customer service were network strengths. Disruption information, service (in)frequency and ticketing ease were pain points.

* All regional modes met the main targets. As did Metro Trains. But Yarra Trams and (especially) metropolitan bus are performing below target.

* Metropolitan bus vies with metropolitan tram for the mode with the least satisfaction over information. One of the reasons (in my view) is we do poorly with maps and network information at interchanges compared to cities like Perth. 

* Information on delays and cancellations was lowly rated for all metropolitan modes but especially metropolitan bus. This is a particular problem as buses are (on average) the least frequent mode, often with long gaps to the next service. I've also found bus tracking on Google maps is pretty unreliable when there are delays. 

* A similar pattern regarding delay and cancellation information applied for regional modes. V/Line trains performed worse than Metro here (with similar issues to metropolitan buses with generally lower frequencies or fewer alternatives available).

* Customer satisfaction for service characteristics across different modes was graphed. Not surprisingly frequency on metropolitan buses got the lowest positive score on this cross-modal comparison.

* Also not surprisingly (due to outrageously cheap fares) the regional modes scored highest for ticketing and value. Metropolitan tram rated the lowest. Possibly as (i) you can't buy a ticket on board and (ii) fares are comparatively high for short non-CBD trips due to our nearly flat statewide fare system.  

* In a finding that some may find surprising, personal security rated well across all modes.

* Which line has the happiest Metro passengers? The answer is Sandringham. They'll have more reasons to smile when the Metro Tunnel timetable starts as they'll be getting a 10 min interpeak weekday service.

* What were the main issues with buses? Low frequency, reliability and fullness were cited in the comments.

Improvement priorities

What has this report taught us about priorities for customer experience improvements, starting with fixing the worst? 

The high level summary at the start of the report is a good guide. These points are: 

* Better and more accurate disruption information (especially for buses and regional trains)

* Better service frequency (especially for buses) 

* Better ticketing ease. Will hopefully come with Myki's replacement offering credit and debit card payment. Also political gimmicks over the last decade or more has led to a fare system that overcharges for many short trips and undercharges for long trips. A return to a more progressive fare structure could improve perceived fairness (and probably overall patronage).  

Summary

These customer experience reports give interesting perspectives on passenger views towards the public transport system. They should be a regular publication rather than something kept internally. 

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

TT 204: PTV info caught short in bus strike bungle


Top investor Warren Buffet famously said that "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked".

Right now the Department of Transport and Planning through the PTV website is completely starkers. 

Good passenger information is a 'nice to have' when everything is running normally.

But it becomes an essential when services are disrupted and passengers have to leave earlier, travel at another time or seek alternative transport. 

Unless a last-minute deal is reached, drivers for CDC and Dysons, two of the state's largest bus operators, will strike tomorrow (May 28, 2025). The outcome for passengers will be routes that do not run or, at best, operate with reduced timetables. Including, on at least one route, no after midday services at all.  

The TWU Vic/Tas side is presented on their Facebook page. This ABC report has the operators' story. 

Today I'll just cover the passenger information aspect, notably PTV's role. 

PTV probably thought it has done its job by posting a website news item on its website on May 23 with the original URL (now broken) here. That was a brief note just listing the operators affected. Not very helpful for those who can't recite their bus route's operator. 

So yesterday (26 May) PTV moved that item to a new link with drop down lists of bus routes affected. That should have been more helpful. 

The problem is that a lot of it contains errors. Or is likely incomplete. PTV has shown, in a moment that its information was most needed, to be unreliable with regards to providing accurate data to passengers. 

You could write a whole thread on where PTV slipped up. Indeed I did last night. Here's some excerpts (click images for clearer view):

1. Route 900 is run by two operators (CDC and Ventura). Ventura drivers are not striking. Presumably some Route 900 trips will run (although there are likely to be uneven gaps). This has big implications for transport to Monash Clayton given that neither the frequent Route 601 shuttle nor the 630 on North Rd will be operating.  


2. Tarneit FlexiRide missing even though this is run by CDC. But 400, run by another operator, is listed.


3. Routes not listed in order.


4. Some very old route lists used. Some haven't been running for 8 or so years. A bit of a worry if PTV can't find a list of currently running bus routes! 


5. Some route descriptions are wrong too. 


6. Another route missing from the list and a wrong description for another. 


7. Risk that 546 isn't correct as it now has weekend service. 


8. Not an error as the 558 genuinely lacks Saturday afternoon service. This 40 year old timetable means that tomorrow morning will have buses in Reservoir north-west but none will run in the afternoon. But missing Route 559 (which also doesn't run Saturday afternoons) from the list could be an error. 



This cacophony of cock-ups reveals serious management and process issues within DTP/PTV. 

PTV is supposed to be in the business of passenger information. It is an inheritor to Metlink, which was formed when even the private operators realised that information was too fragmented for passengers to understand. 

The problem is that PTV isn't very good at passenger information during disruptions. It has proved itself untrustworthy when most needed.

Anticipating crises (eg strikes) and knowing exactly what to do is not just important preparation for investors and companies (hence the Warren Buffet quote above) but also for outfits like PTV who need internal capability to respond to network crises like strikes. It's not as if there wasn't warning; on May 13 TWU publicly advised that their Dyson members voted to strike - giving sufficient notice for PTV to at least collate an accurate list of routes that could be affected. 

How then was so much of what was published wrong? Either PTV didn't confirm what operators sent is correct or they were unable to generate current accurate route lists themselves that can be pulled out at short notice if needed. How else can you explain route lists with wrong descriptions or long-retired route numbers? 

Furthermore, PTV lack proper processes to verify that what they publish is correct. They have especially failed to have suitably trained staff in the right places to identify and stop errors being published.

This is not just a one-off event. Shortcomings in passenger information, weak marketing and data inaccuracy is a recurring pattern of behaviour that highly-paid DTP executives have as yet been unable to fix.

The result is needlessly misled, stranded and angry passengers. As this reflects on the state government's service delivery, improving PTV's game, given the long record of subpar performance, should be a matter of immediate political and ministerial interest.


UPDATE 27/5/2025 11:20am: Shortly after this blog appeared PTV corrected many errors on its route list. While the corrections are welcome the 'publish unchecked nonsense first, rely on Twitter gunzels for corrections later' method is not a respectful way to treat passengers nor run a credible transit agency. Props to the headless chooks there correcting stuff so quickly but you most need good executives able to put in the processes to get it right from the start. Improving capability while simultaneously pruning executive staffing costs is particularly topical with the Silver review into Victoria's public service due to report next month.  



Thursday, May 22, 2025

Are there too many rail shutdowns?



Having a dependable 'always there' service is the first requirement if you want people to use rail and, longer term, build their housing and other land uses around it.

This requires a 'show must go on' culture amongst those who oversee and operate rail.  

The strength of this culture has varied over the decades and is certainly weaker here than in say Japan. 

Why have trains not run?

What have been the main causes of Melbourne's rail network not being dependable?

It's varied over the decades. 

Strikes

For several decades up to the early 1990s rail strikes were not uncommon. 

That and the prevailing politico-economic fashion led to a stack of reform including splitting suburban rail into business units and franchising to private operators. Reliability improved in the last few years of Met Trains and the first few years of franchising (from the late 1990s to 2003). Around 2000 I remember generally successfully making 0 minute cross-platform interchanges from up Frankstons to down Dandenongs at Caulfield when trains on both lines came every 30 minutes. 

Picking up the pieces from franchising's collapse

However Franchising Mk 1 was not financially sustainable and collapsed with National Express walking out. Then faddish competition theory doctrine usurped common sense and divided the network. And at least National Express skimped on driver recruiting and training. That led to a staff shortage and thus an upsurge in delays and cancellations from late 2003. 

Patronage pressures, infrastructure issues and bad scheduling

Then surging CBD employment, fuel prices led to a patronage boom on a network poorly equipped to cope. Crowding, an infrastructure maintenance backlog and unsuitable timetables put reliability into freefall for nearly a decade, with frequent cancellations and delays.

Officialdom washed their hands of this, blaming the private operators but passengers were not fooled. Privateers do what privateers do (ie maximise returns to shareholders) so contract oversight is essential for good performance. Rail trouble-shooter Simon Lane blamed weak departmental management for shortcomings here.  

Rail reliability had become a hot-button political issue with a general political consensus to fix it. Enough had been done by 2012-2013 for reliability to rebound to almost 2003 levels. That Coalition government did not get much political credit for this and associated frequency increases. Apart from this government's generally well received PSO program it was most known for studying various rail extensions but not actually building much (though it inherited and continued - at reduced scope - the construction of the Regional Rail Link). 

Big Build disruptions

Big Build projects have not been without benefits. You need to crack eggs to make an omelette as they say. But they are also now a major cause of many trains not running with shutdowns needed to facilitate construction. In duration these range from a few hours in an evening to a weekend to several weeks or more.  

Regardless of them being planned rather than unplanned, there is no question that with many hours of extra travel and waiting added per week, protracted rail replacements have been highly disruptive for those not in cushy desk jobs with work from home options. Doubly so for those working nights or weekends due to Melbourne's notoriously low rail frequencies then. 

And just when people thought it was safe to go back to using the train there'll likely be another shutdown. They can cascade such that they become an expectation rather than an exception over five years or more. If you have an event or work roster change coming up you cannot assume that trains will be running to get you there. 

This unreliability has erased trains from many peoples' mental maps as a practical transport option. That's significant because, especially for car owners, reliability is a major reason for choosing rail. The cause may be different but the damage to rail's standing is similar to the 1970s-1990s period due to strikes or about 15 years ago due to recurring network meltdowns.

Frequent occupations may be one reason that lines like Frankston have yet to recover to their pre-pandemic patronage levels. When you compare the huge rail patronage growth projections made circa 2015 with the 'lost decade' we subsequently got, business cases for huge capital projects weaken. Especially when compared against the benefits from fully utilising our existing rail assets (which Melbourne, unlike Sydney, isn't very good at).  

Do we need so many bus replacement events? 

This Taitset video says we probably don't. There have been instances where major works have been done with only minimal bus replacements. It recommends 'service first' with bus replacements being a last rather than a first option.  




Could replacement buses be better? 

Another Taitset video with some ideas on improving the experience. 



Could more frequent train and bus timetables help?

The short answer is yes. Replacement buses typically operate at the same frequency as trains, especially at night and on weekends. In Melbourne we have busy lines that have low frequencies outside peak, for example Craigieburn, Mernda and Werribee. Low frequencies increase maximum waits if replacement buses arrive early or late to the station from which connecting trains depart. The state budget earlier this week has commendably funded removal of 30-40 min waits on the Upfield and Craigieburn lines but this is needed on the Burnley and Clifton Hill groups too. 

Even though it has a lot of bus replacements its better frequency is why catching substitute buses is less chancy on the Frankston line than some others. This is because apart from early weekend mornings the longest you'll wait for a Frankston line train is 20 minutes, with a 10 minute service running for much of the day. In contrast waits on busy lines like Craigieburn are normally double with typical 40 minute Sunday morning, 30 minute evening and 20 minute day. Boosting all day rail frequencies is thus one way of making the bus replacement experience better on the less served lines.  

Improved frequencies on regular bus routes has a stack of benefits. One that's often overlooked is their ability to help with planned or unplanned rail disruptions. Many planned disruptions are done on the weekends - the precise time when buses are least frequent in Melbourne. Reformed more direct bus routes with higher 7 day frequencies and longer operating hours provide alternatives for some passengers to get trains across to parallel train lines that may still be running. This could relieve stress on rail replacement buses.  

Conclusion

Organisational power relations in public transport need a reset if metropolitan rail patronage is to break out of its post-pandemic flatlining and the Metro Tunnel is to achieve full usage potential. More specifically a restoration of the "show must go on" service culture is needed. That could include rail occupations being a last rather than a first resort, with DTP more active in refusing some and seeking ways to shorten others.

It is understood that rail disruptions before the 2010 state election did not help the Brumby government. If the (by then 12 year old) state government wants to get full credit for its project builds in the 2026 election then it could do better than show there's "light at the end of the tunnel" by prioritising reliable and frequent service.

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Victorian state budget 2025: What did PT get?


The Victorian State Budget was presented this afternoon by Treasurer Jacklyn Symes.  

Station posters might say "More Trains More Often". The minister might proclaim that "The time for bus is now" at industry functions. Or there might be worthy words in documents like the 1437 day old Bus Plan, the latest from Infrastructure Victoria or Plan for Victoria

But more important than any of these is what gets budget funding. The following is what we know so far (video at bottom if you prefer watching to reading):

Pre-budget announcements

Budget contents are solemnly secret until tabling. However the government will sometimes announce 'good news' items prior to the budget, especially if other aspects of the budget aren't so rosy. 

There were four main announcements in the week leading up to the budget on public transport matters. These included: 

* $4b funding for Sunshine station expansion as a precursor to Airport Rail and Melton electrification

* A preview of some train frequencies associated with the Metro Tunnel timetables including welcome frequency upgrades on the Craigieburn, Upfield, Werribee and Sandringham lines and some frequency or capacity boosts for V/Line. This totals $98.7m with the metropolitan component accounting for $46m (over 3 years). 

* Free weekend statewide travel for Seniors Card holders (this sounds big but doesn't actually cost the budget much as a. Seniors travelling in adjoining zones already get free weekend travel and b. V/Line fares have been extremely low since the statewide fare cap was introduced)

* Free all week statewide travel for under 18s with a new Youth myki, costing the budget $318m over 4 years. This is being sold by the government as cost of living relief for families. But there may be other motivations for it including political payoffs, an admission of defeat against high fare evasion (especially on buses) and expediting Conduent's over time and budget new ticketing system (free tickets being easier than concessions for fare calculation purposes). 

Where to find the budget papers 

First, for some background see what I wrote in 2024

The budget papers are available at https://www.budget.vic.gov.au .

Papers 3, 4 and 5 have substantial sections for the transport portfolio.

The department performance statements (transport section - from page 130) for statistics on running costs, passenger boardings and fare compliance (95.9% for bus claimed!). There's been a big reported increase in tram operating expenses with this attributed to the new franchise agreement and changes in farebox revenue spending. We seem good at paying private operators more each time franchises are renegotiated but getting precious little annual service kilometre uplift in return. Value for money is something that a government interested in both good financial management and improving service levels might wish to look harder at.  

It's important to know what is new funding and what are previously committed initiatives. Here are some described here. Also a lot of funding listed as continuation for buses is a transfer from temporary GAIC to regular budget spending. 

Rail service improvements

There is a 'more trains more often' funding program. Here's a direct quote from p88.

More trains, more often
Funding is provided for additional train services across metropolitan Melbourne, following the delivery of the Metro Tunnel including:

• additional peak services on the Werribee Line
• additional inter-peak services on the Sandringham line
• additional inter-peak services on the Craigieburn line
• additional off-peak services on the Craigieburn and Upfield lines.
Funding is also provided for additional train services in regional Victoria including:
• additional peak services on the Seymour corridor
• service capacity uplifts for critical Bendigo weekend services
• additional weekday interpeak services to and from Traralgon, enabled by the Gippsland Line Upgrade.

Funding is also provided to facilitate timetable changes across the public transport network to ensure new services are effectively integrated into the network. 

Most notable (in my view) has been much needed upgrades to Craigieburn and Upfield line train services to be implemented around the time the Metro Tunnel opens (give or take). Maximum waits on these lines fall from 40 min (Sunday mornings) or 30 min (evenings) to 20 min at any time trains run on any day (apart from Night Network where the service remains hourly). In addition the busy Craigieburn line gains some shoulder peak services. These upgrades fall short of the 10 minute daytime frequency proposed in the 2016 Metro Tunnel Business Case. But the 20 minute maximum wait still represents the biggest service uplift for many years on these lines. Timetables will no longer be so stuck in the '90s as a recent Age article reported based on my analysis. Indeed Fawkner Cemetery will now get a better evening and Sunday morning service than Box Hill! 

Sandringham line also gets a weekday interpeak uplift from 15 to 10 minutes. This makes the frequency  compatible with the trains that form it from Newport now that Sandringham becomes part of the cross-city group. It does however increase inequalities with Brighton having half the midday waits of Broadmeadows despite the latter being a busier station on a busier line.  

Werribee gains improved peak services, with frequency improving from 10 to 7.5 min. Again this assists scheduling with Sandringham services which these trains may form. 

There are some V/Line improvements including a 40 min weekday frequency for Traralgon, more peak Seymour trips and increased weekend capacity for Bendigo. 

What is out of scope? The Burnley and Clifton Hill groups get no improvements. Thus they remain with their 30 and 40 minute maximum waits respectively with City - Ringwood trains having numerous complex stopping patterns. Also Sandringham, despite it operating every 10 minutes on weekdays, appears to retain its existing (and embarrassing) 40 minute Sunday morning frequency. This needs only  a few extra trips per week to fix but was apparently a bridge too far.

Unlike major construction projects that go through at least the motions of community engagement, rail timetabling in Melbourne has historically been a secretive art done with no public consultation and little political scrutiny. The expedience of amending as few timetables as possible sometimes seems more important than delivering a good all week service offer to passengers. That is unless attention is drawn through campaigns like More Trains Melbourne's North, which may have contributed to the relatively good outcomes likely for Craigieburn and Upfield.  

Bus service improvements

2024's budget was extremely sparse for bus improvements. There was basically just the Route 800 upgrade. The north and west were particularly short-changed. The 2025 budget tips the board the other way. The north and west get many new and upgraded services with the south-east getting one (the new Hastings - Mornington bus whose planning and infrastructure was funded in previous budgets). 

Transport Minister Gabrielle Williams recently said that 'The time for bus is now'. The Sustainable Cities Better Buses campaign has been very active in Melbourne's west. The Werribee by-election was arguably a wake-up call for Labor with its primary vote slumping.   

This budget delivers some very worthwhile bus upgrades in areas like Werribee, Tarneit, Mt Atkinson and Craigieburn. There is also funding for bus network reviews in Victoria's largest regional centres, indicating that the government has heard calls for these from cities such as Ballarat and Bendigo. There are some clusters of improvements in certain areas. This is better than just doing one or two routes per year. But it does not deliver new frequent 7 day routes (eg new SmartBuses) at the rate that would be required to really revolutionise the usefulness of buses in Melbourne. 

All up the Output Initiatives for bus services add to $122.8m over 3 years (See Budget Paper 3, p83). 

Page 84-5 has a summary, as below:

Bus Services
Improving bus and ferry services - Funding is provided to deliver bus and ferry services including:

• a package of new and extended bus routes connecting passengers in growth areas to train stations, including Riverwalk, Kings Leigh, Mt Atkinson, Thornhill Park and Mystique estates
• new and upgraded bus services for the new West Tarneit Station
• bus service uplifts to improve access to the Wyndham Law Courts precinct
• bus service uplifts for Broadmeadows and Mandalay, realigned services to connect Aintree residents to the Metro Tunnel via Watergardens and new bus routes for Cairnlea and Hastings
• continuation of Melton South, Woodend and Yarrawonga FlexiRide bus services and the Merinda Park Station to Clyde North bus service
• continuation of regional bus services in Warrnambool, Cowes, Leongatha, Mildura, Bendigo and Korumburra
• continuation of the Westgate Punt ferry service between Fishermans Bend and Spotswood
• late-night services for select bus routes in areas of Werribee, Tarneit and Craigieburn.

Funding is also provided to undertake a review of the bus network in priority regional areas including Geelong, the Bellarine Peninsula, Ballarat and Bendigo.

The continuation items are typically growth area initiatives that were funded under GAIC (developer contributions). This is a restricted and limited term funding stream. Inclusion in the budget puts them on a similar footing to other regular bus routes. 

The list above does not give full justice to the upgrades. It is in abbreviated form and does not list route numbers or proper descriptions. Some of them amount to packages of up to 7 routes in an area - something we haven't had for a while.  And at least one initiative has been omitted or has been carelessly assigned to the wrong suburb.  

The best place to learn about the various bus upgrades is local MPs social media. You will see posts, website articles, speeches and/or videos describing the new services in more detail than you'll see in the budget papers. 

Some examples of upgrades happening include news from: 

Dylan Wight MP - New route 186 between Tarneit and West Tarneit station, additional night services on routes 170, 180, 190 and 192. Will make a big difference in a high patronage area as these major routes currently finish around 9:30pm on many nights. 

John Lister MP - improved Route 153 frequency (serves Werribee law courts) and extended Route 441 to serve new Kings Leigh Estate

Steve McGhie MP - New Thornhill Park - Cobblebank bus. There is also a continuation of Melton South's GAIC-funded FlexiRide. 

Luba Grigorovitch MP -  new route 140 Rockbank - Mt Atkinson - Tarneit, new route 405 Cairnlea - Deer Park, substantial 444, 461, 463 & 464 reforms. 

Natalie Suleyman MP - New route 405 Cairnlea - Deer Park ($12.1m).

Natalie Hutchins MP - Substantial 444, 461 & 463 reforms with new 464 new east-west connections. Details are sketchy but this looks like a pretty major package. 

Kathleen Matthews Ward MP - 7 day service on 536 bus. A much needed upgrade to services in a high-needs area. The 536 actually ran 7 days in the 1980s but early '90s cuts saw service slashed. This is the only low-cost 7 day upgrade to an established area bus route in the budget (would have liked more). 

Ros Spence MP - Described as afternoon service increases on Craigieburn bus routes 390, 525, 528, 529, 533 and 537 (though might actually be later evening services given what it says in budget papers). Also more trips on the currently very limited service Route 511 and an extension to Craigieburn.  

Sheena Watt MP - train frequency upgrades for Craigieburn and Upfield to a maximum 20 min wait. 

Enver Erdogan MP - train frequency upgrades for Craigieburn and Upfield to a maximum 20 min wait.

Lily D'Ambrosio MP - Wollert area bus upgrades. New route 355. Reforms to bus routes 356, 357, 358 and 577.

Bronwyn Halfpenny MP - Longer hours on bus route 390 from Craigieburn to Mernda. Other upgrades described above. 

Lee Tarlamis MP - Route 881 bus between Merinda Park and Clyde North has its funding transferred from temporary GAIC to an ongoing budget item. 

Michael Galea MP - Route 881 bus between Merinda Park and Clyde North has its funding transferred from temporary GAIC to an ongoing budget item. 

Paul Mercurio MP - Hastings - Mornington cross-peninsula bus 886. The only new bus initiative in the east and south for this budget - builds on funding for planning and infrastructure in prior budgets. 

In addition the tram initiatives I noticed included:

Katie Hall MP - Maidstone Tram maintenance facility at Maidstone and two accessible tram stops on Route 82 at the new Footscray Hospital.  

No doubt more details of alignments, operating hours and frequencies will emerge in due course.

As for how long these service initiatives will take to be implemented the answer is typically "longer than what people would like" given current DTP internal processes and their (now full) agenda. Simple operating hours extensions on existing routes can be done as quickly as 7 months (as Route 800 proved) but for  new and/or reformed routes you're looking at 2 to 3 years, especially if public consultation is done. 

UPDATE: Many (not all) of these initiatives were mentioned on the Growth Area Infrastructure Contribution website for a short time on 22-23 May. See North-Western growth corridor bus package . Package 1 is service increases on existing routes (so is likely to happen sooner) while Package 2 are more complex new and reformed routes. What is listed as new route 335 is (I suspect) 355. However they seem to have been deleted on 23/5/2025. 

This level of synchronised promotion of improved service by government MPs on their social media is almost unprecedented. It's as if there's a new communications coordinator in the premier's office who has told MPs to "sell achievements or lose in 2026". Or maybe there's a new realisation that shorter waits for trains and better buses can be sold as a vote winner. The latter is especially encouraging for advocates who have tried to get the message to MPs that upgraded PT services are sellable (even if PTV aren't the sharpest marketers when they do get improved!).

Meanwhile most of the Liberal Opposition in Victoria (with Evan Mulholland MP being one of the exceptions) has not yet demonstrated their will to win exceeds their internal squabbles. For instance we've heard nothing from them about the budget (a) falling short of the business case frequency upgrades for the Upfield and Craigieburn lines and (b) neglecting bus and most train lines in the east and south-east. 

Which advocates won funding? 

Some of the above upgrades are likely a result of the government accepting DTP business cases for funding. 2025's budget marks a revival in DTP's fortunes. Whereas in the 2023 and (especially) 2024 budgets the department was unable to win much outside temporary GAIC funding. 

This year the government also listened to various community transport campaigns in the north and west, with some of their requests attracting funding. 

Most notably FOE's Sustainable Cities Collective (partly funded by PTUA). It did not get the radical frequent grid bus network it proposed but a large number of bus upgrades in the west did get funding. Including improvements on routes like 170, 180 and 190 that would be part of any sensible grid network.  

2025 was the year that it all came together for Mt Atkinson Advocacy Forum. Its school bus started earlier this year after an earlier successful campaign. This budget saw funding for a public bus in Route 140 which will run between Tarneit and Rockbank. No details of its route alignment yet but it may well be something like my Option 2 discussed here.  

Graeme Blore, a Cairnlea-based transport and environmental campaigner, succeeded in winning funding for better Cairnlea bus coverage with the new Route 405 to Deer Park. Matt Pearse also had a win with a fixed Thornhill Park bus route getting funding. This will offer a more reliable alternative to the existing FlexiRide. 

A 7 day Route 536 bus between Glenroy and Gowrie has been advocated by Climate Action Merribek and the 7 day service on 536 bus campaigns. That too got funded. 

The Public Transport Users Association has long campaigned for improved train frequencies. As have various Upfield line based groups that have also wanted extension and duplication to add capacity. Higher transport frequency has been a Victorian Transport Action Group advocacy priority. And since January 2024 More Trains Melbourne's North has run in-person campaigns at underserved stations in Melbourne's north, notably on the Craigieburn line. All can claim credit for the very good budget decision to cut maximum gaps between Craigieburn and Upfield line trains from 40 to 20 minutes. Especially given that up to now this government has prioritised pouring concrete above frequent service, even where there were no infrastructure impediments to service uplifts. 

Various councils had mixed success in getting their ideas funded. One of those who was successful was Mornington Peninsula Shire, which won budget support for the long-advocated cross-peninsula bus from Hastings to Mornington. 

Those asking for a Sunshine - Melbourne Airport bus did not get budget backing this year. Also,  perhaps compensating for a lack of previous attention, the 2025 budget heavily skewed north and west with regards to new bus services funded. Hence neither Eastern Transport Coalition nor Fix Dandy Buses got any of their wishes funded this year despite outstanding patronage results from the Route 800 7 day boost funded last year. 


DTP administration and value for money

Every dollar spent on a DTP executive's pay is a dollar that can't be put towards funding better buses in overlooked areas that need them such as Campbellfield, Thomastown or Dandenong. Or other transport initiatives that could be thought desirable. 

At the same time the department needs to make its internal processes more efficient given its now bigger agenda implementing this budget's train and bus service upgrades. These reflect both the Metro Tunnel switch-on and heightened activity after lean times for bus funding in the 2023 and 2024 state budgets (recall that last year's budget funded just one new metropolitan bus upgrade - the 800 boost). 

This needs to be done simultaneously with pressure from the Silver Review to reduce VPS numbers to pre-pandemic levels, including with regards to executive numbers. Pages 38 and 39 of the Strategy and Outlook paper give a summary of the Silver Review with this to report by 30 June 2025. And to cap it off one would expect the government would want as much as possible done by next year's state election. 

Video summarising the above



Conclusion

This budget adds much needed growth area bus coverage in Melbourne's north and west, something significantly overlooked in 2024. It also starts to reverse the long-term stagnation of public transport service with encouraging train and bus frequency upgrades.

However its benefits are unevenly distributed; high needs/high patronage areas in the south-east like Greater Dandenong have got nothing from this budget despite the proven patronage success of the Route 800 upgraded last year. Yes Dandenong area stations may benefit from as yet unknown higher frequencies arising from the Metro Tunnel timetable. And the Merinda Park - Clyde bus comes off GAIC and on to regular budget funding. Still more could have been done in the south and east with potential to redistribute service kilometres from quieter routes in lower needs areas to busier routes in higher need suburbs. 

In other areas, the north and north-east bus reviews announced before the 2022 state election appear to have stalled, with no funding initiatives for anything there in the last three budgets. More could also have been invested in low-cost 7 day bus upgrades across popular but limited service routes. 

There are no doubt many aspects of the budget not covered above. Comments on these are welcome and can be left below. 

Thursday, May 15, 2025

UN 202: 798 - Outer Melbourne's most frequent bus gets extended



The standard local bus offering in outer Melbourne is uninspiring. Typically it's an indirect route that runs about every 40 minutes until about 9pm. Peak service might improve to every 20 or 30 minutes but not always.

Even if you were willing to walk longer to a frequent service on a main road, as the IV and DTP bus reform boffins say you should be able to, you may find your ability to cross it is blocked by roundabout-facilitated unbroken streams of cars. And if you are lucky enough to find a gap in the traffic to eventually reach the stop (having missed the bus you intended to catch), the wait for the next one won't be much shorter than your local route anyway. 

Exceptions

However there are some exceptions. The reformed 2014 Brimbank and 2015 Wyndham network featured a small number of 7 day buses running every 20 min or better (170, 180 & 420). As did the reformed Cranbourne network in 2016 with the 798 to Selandra Rise and 897 to Clyde.

Back in 2019 I documented these and other 20 minute services. Since then some other routes got upgraded to this service level. Notably most local routes in Craigieburn and the new 475 between Sunbury and Diggers Rest. Though this latter group of upgrades was weekdays only, with weekends remaining at every 40 minutes, ie typically meeting every second train. 

Buses that run every 20 minutes or better 7 days per week form an exclusive subset of Melbourne's 360-odd route network. 

Most closer to the city are a legacy of Tramways Board routes that have always had better service than private buses (especially since the 1990-1 cuts to the latter following an acrimonious contracting dispute). 

In the middle suburbs the most glaring omissions are the SmartBus orbitals that should be linking the radial train lines but unreliably do so due to their infrequent 30 minute weekend service. That explains the blanks near busy areas such as around shopping centres like Northland, Eastland and Chadstone as well as major interchanges like Broadmeadows, Coburg, Preston Box Hill and Springvale.  


A welcome extension

In the slow moving world of Melbourne buses, it's a rare and exciting event when a 7 day 20 minute frequent route gets added or even just extended. Thus it's worth chronicling those that do happen. 

That's today's topic. Sunday 11 May 2025 saw the commencement of the extended 798 bus from Cranbourne. Instead of terminating at Selandra Rise it extends significantly east to the growth frontier at Clyde North. It's roughly a doubling of route length, as foreshadowed here

The 798 is not your average suburban bus route. It commenced in 2014 with longer hours and far more frequent service than any other growth area bus route. This was a result of a determination to have reasonable public transport from early in Selandra Rise's development. The background to this was described in a research paper presented to 2015's ATRF.  

Route 798 was later extended a little south to serve more of Selandra Rise. Other routes have since been added in the area. Thus Sunday's change reverses that extension in favour of a much longer extension east along Hardys Rd and O'Connor Avenue to newer growth areas as shown in the red dotted line (the 831 extension will happen later). 
 

The PTV item mentions alternative stops people can use (though the 898 suggested has shorter operating hours and is only every 40 min on weekends). Overall though this is one of those 'greater good' network changes where far more people will gain than will lose. 

Most notable about this change is that the 20 minute service is retained on the 798. Not only that but also its longer operating hours. For example an 11pm rather than the typical 9pm finish. 

Network implications

As a result of path dependency comprising (i) the Selandra Rise pilot, (ii) the 2016 Cranbourne network review and (iii) subsequent 897, 898 and now 798 extensions, east west buses to Cranbourne are often direct with service every 20 minutes (at least on weekdays). These are highlighted below. 


In contrast north-south buses to Berwick and Narre Warren are typically every 30 to 40 minutes. There are also a lot of overlaps and weak termini. Some are unavoidable but not all are. A consequence of weak termini is that despite the large number of routes, not one offers a one seat ride from Cranbourne to Berwick.

Contributing reasons for this include (a) the lack of a comprehensive Narre Warren - Berwick area bus network review, (b) two bus operators (Ventura and Cranbourne) serving the area and (c) Restrictions arising from temporary and conditional GAIC funding for growth area routes. 

Conclusion

The extended bus route 798 offers new coverage with better than average operating hours and frequency over a wide growth area catchment. The Clyde area will gain further with the 831 extension (likely later this year). However there is still a significant service backlog and the Narre Warren/Berwick/Clyde area would benefit from a bus network review. 

See other Useful Network items here

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

What our transport leaders think - hints from the PTAANZ Symposium


Leaders' speeches at industry conferences can give valuable insights into their thinking. 

One such event was the Public Transport Association Australia New Zealand (PTAANZ) symposium held last month. 

Both Public and Active Transport Minister Gabrielle Williams MP and DTP Secretary Jeroen Weimar spoke. 

The audience at these types of industry events is educated enough to join the dots. Which is just as well as both speakers would have had to have chosen their word carefully. 

The minister, for example, would not have been at liberty to disclose what was in next week's state budget. She could also not let on any disappointment if items she'd have wanted funded were not. 

The Secretary likewise cannot speak 'out of school' if he thinks that government transport funding priorities are wrong. And he has to represent a 'second fiddle' department that struggles to win funding for quite small business cases while multi-billion budget blowouts on major projects are routine. 

Summaries of both speeches were placed on the PTAANZ LinkedIn page

Below are PTAANZ's summaries and my takes on what they might mean. 

Speech from Gabrielle Williams MP

As Australia’s fastest-growing city, Melbourne stands at a turning point. With the Metro Tunnel nearing completion, five new stations will redefine the way we move – shifting us from a city of CBD-bound commutes to a true city of interchange
Hints at transitioning the public transport network from peak CBD commuters to more diverse trip types. Even before the pandemic this shift was necessary to retain network relevance but progress in addressing this through improved all week frequencies was snail pace beyond a few favoured lines.  

Recognises that "true city of interchange" is a geometrical fact for any big city. Especially one with more central area Metro stations and it not being possible for each line to serve each one.


and the system-wide benefits are clear: 
- Improved frequency 

May increase expectations that we are getting increased frequencies system-wide rather than just on the lines that the Metro Tunnel directly serves. We got advice of movement towards that in yesterday's pre-budget timetable announcement with maximum waits on the Upfield and Craigieburn lines to be reduced from 40 to 20 minutes. While welcome these are baby steps compared to the 10 minute service recommended by planners in the 2012 NDP Metropolitan Rail and the 2016 Metro Tunnel Business Case. Thus they do not dispel the reasonable caricature of this government as being weak on backing up its infrastructure program with service, especially relative to its time in service and the opportunities available to it. 

- Untangled bottlenecks 
- Better network-wide capacity 

Placing frequency as the number 1 benefit with capacity at the bottom, is generally appropriate for post COVID times where travel patterns have become less peaky with more weekend travel. 


But this keynote was about more than just big infrastructure. 
It was a powerful reminder that public transport is a great leveller – 
connecting people not just to places, but to opportunity. Social, educational, economic.

The PTAANZ audience knows all this and wouldn't need a reminder. 

But other parts of cabinet, and government probably do. Possibly because what we now know as the Big Build emerged from Project 10 000 (jobs) to stimulate the construction industry during a quiet time. What you might call 'Cement First' projects have not been without public benefit though it is also possible that 'Service First' would have delivered better value and even more ongoing (as opposed to temporary) jobs (though in different unions).  


Our favourite talking points from the Minister's address? 
“We’re here to enable.”
“Public transport lifts people up.”
“We live policy.”

Appealing to the Labor base and party people here. Including in low income areas whose primary vote was, as recently as the 2025 Werribee by-election, was drifting from Labor. 


The Minister spoke to the deep purpose behind the network – and to the next big challenges:
- Sunshine Precinct – unlocking access to the west and establishing a true interchange hub

A shout-out to the west that they haven't been forgotten. Channels Airport Rail and Melton electrification. May also differentiate Labor from the federal Liberal campaign that proposed less funding for Sunshine. 

- Accessibility – with new rolling stock, station upgrades, and smart technology

Needs a mention as DDA tram upgrades (especially) have been so slow. There is also a significant disability advocacy movement. 

- Buses – no longer the “poor cousin”, but essential to a flexible and equitable system. 

A sort of 'We hear you" to bus advocates with another mention of equity (likely referring mainly to coverage gaps in growth areas).

"Flexible" is a sort of catch all word with a vague meaning. At its worst it can mean the now found wanting FlexiRide concept. But at its best it can mean frequent service over long hours that permit buses to be used for diverse trips throughout the week. 

“The time for buses is now.”

Maybe a plea for higher recognition from other parts of government, a hope for more funding from Treasury and maybe even a dampener of expectations for any big train and tram announcements. 

And perhaps the biggest challenge of all? Making sure public transport doesn’t just grow with our cities – but shapes them into places where people thrive

A nod towards Plan for Victoria, developments around Metro Tunnel stations, the Suburban Rail Loop and various housing statements that seek to group denser housing around stations. At the opposite end of the scale, flexible route buses have zero ability to shape cities.  

“In a year’s time, Melbourne will feel entirely different.” 

 Possibly reflecting the completion of the Metro Tunnel and the lessening of construction disruptions as more projects get finished. 

We'll only know whether the minister has been able to carry the rest of government regarding funding for buses and other transport services in the state budget on 20 May. 


Speech from Jeroen Weimar


We’ve come a long way. From W-Class trams and ageing country trains to new Vlocities, over 100 modern low-floor trams, open loop ticketing on the horizon, and over 85 level crossings removed. A quarter of stations are now accessible. The Metro Tunnel is nearly here.

This summary demonstrates how infrastructure heavy the recent agenda has been. Bus network reform and service frequency upgrades where not considered important enough to mention, even though some has happened.   

But our growth hasn’t slowed. Victoria is the fastest growing state in the country, expecting over 2 million new households in the next 25 years. Yet our housing patterns—stretching further into low-density peripheries—have created service gaps we’re still playing catch-up on.


An acknowledgement here of fringe area coverage gaps that we're still behind on. 

And the ground has shifted beneath us. COVID didn’t just disrupt patronage—it rewrote business cases, 

Though impolite to say, projects that relied on peak capacity for their justification (eg the Metro Tunnel, some road projects and some level crossing removals) would have weaker business cases if assessed today, especially given higher construction costs. On the other hand various evening and weekend skewed active transport infrastructure and public transport frequency upgrades would probably retain  their strong BCRs. Though if there is the political will to do something business cases matter less.  

changed demand patterns, 

Basically less M-F commuting (with Mondays and Fridays being quieter though Friday evening is busy) and more weekend usage. This is well understood. But timetable reform in response has been sluggish, especially for metropolitan trains (except for special events, and even these have issues if they finish at night or start on Sunday mornings).   

and questioned funding models. Farebox recovery is down. 

Some of this is undeniably due to reduced peak usage. But other factors also wouldn't have helped. For example regional fare reductions for V/Line. Fare evasion too, especially on buses. Arguably due to DTP's culture of denial, lax enforcement and the continuation of pandemic restrictions that removed on-board top-ups.   

Peak-hour isn't what it used to be. “Turning up to the office five days a week is as old-fashioned as wearing a bowler hat.” 

Recognition that the network must be less weekday commuter oriented. And hopefully also better service at other times. Which is good for fleet asset utilisation. 

-“We need a granular way of evolving our networks—not just ten billion dollar business cases.”

Possibly a diplomatic way of saying that Victoria's current 98% big infrastructure/1% small infrastructure/1% service approach isn't what's best value for money right now, even though something like this mix has been government policy for nearly the last decade.

We may see fewer big projects for the next little while. They're expensive, they run over-budget, their BCRs are poor and they distract attention from more cost-effective initiatives. Interest rates no longer scream 'borrow now' and the government seems broke right now.

The worst outcome is if big projects bleed finances so dry that there is a famine of both big and small initiatives, causing even more loss of delivery capability. Which is already a problem given that current hidebound processes mean DTP takes more time to reform a few bus routes than LXRP needs to remove level crossings and rebuild stations. 


- “The challenge of our time is climate adaptation.”

Presumably including network resilience in which a broad view needs to be taken due to greater variability in weather events. As a small example a flood-prone station underpass at Broadmeadows could disrupt someone's trip to the airport. Climate extremes can increase service disruptions due to tracks buckling. Expanses of concrete can increase flood run-off and contribute to heat stress. Modern systems are highly power dependent so resilience is needed there as information systems can fail when they are most needed. 


“We must rethink how public transport and social infrastructure shape our cities—not follow them.”

This gets onto narratives like clustering sympathetic dense land uses around stations and on tram routes. Big opportunities might also exist via bus reform and developing frequent bus corridors that may have some city shaping capability (through a more dispersed low-rise rather than highly concentrated high rise pattern at a few nodes as per the SRL concept). 

There is opportunity in disruption. With flexible buses, mid-rise housing, and transit-led communities, we can create a public transport system that meets people where they are—and where they want to go.

One of these is not like the other two. Flexible route buses follow not shape cities. They discourage even basics like bus shelters that might bring people to a corner outside a neighbourhood cafe. Flexible routes are also not conducive to network reform or frequent bus priority corridors. The most flexible network that is within reasonable reach of everyone, has good frequencies all week and has easy physical interchange.  

'Meeting people where they are' describes a taxi more than PT. Like flexible buses they cannot shape cities and don't have agglomeration benefits that trains and buses do.

The 'social contract' of PT is that users walk a short distance. But in exchange they get service that is direct, fast and frequent for a modest fare. It is this sort of transport  Also flexible route buses are duds that are rarely efficient.

Let’s get the rhythm right.

This musical parallel speaks to DTP's role. That is a conductor of a multimodal orchestra of operators who together make the system work. 


Thursday, May 08, 2025

Maroondah's 2025 - 2035 Transport Strategy

 

Reading council minutes and agenda documents is sometimes useful. As it was for me last week when I came across the Maroondah Transport Strategy in the attachments

Overview

Some interesting numbers in the overview. I've reproduced just the public transport ones here (click for better view).  


Even though Ringwood has an intensive peak train service, the number of trains on a Saturday is almost 90% that of a weekday. This is mostly due to unfinished timetable business from over a decade ago. That is Ringwood got its weekend trains upgraded to every 10 minutes but its interpeak weekday frequency remained at every 15 minutes. Sunday rail services were 317, or 67% the weekday service. I was surprised at that given the main difference between Saturday and Sunday service is mostly confined to a few hours on Sunday morning where a lower frequency applies. 

Bus services are very different. Saturday service collapses to barely half the number of services on weekdays. A major contributor to that would be the 901 SmartBus that runs every 30 minutes on weekends versus 15 minutes on weekdays. Sparser still are Sunday services, with barely one-third of weekday trips. This is because many outer eastern bus routes operate over limited hours or not at all on weekends. 

Council advocacy aims

There's a lot more to the report than I discuss here but I suggest first looking at page 28 which is what the council is asking for regarding public transport. I've ticked and crossed items, with more discussion below. 


The list is overwhelmingly positive. Implementation would significantly improve public transport in Maroondah. 

Main points

The two points I wish to highlight is train frequency and SmartBus 737.

The recommendation for a train every 10 minutes 7 days per week at Ringwood is very good. Weekends are already done so this just needs interpeak weekdays and (preferably) evenings to finish off.  That would deliver consistent turn-up-and-go service that would improve connectivity with buses and foster transit supportive land uses around stations. It's a reflection on how poorly we use rail infrastructure or regard rail as being useful for other than peak period travel that the Belgrave/Lilydale train timetable has been effectively frozen for so long. 

While not really stated, the 10 minute frequency recommendation should also deliver overdue relief to the 30 minute gaps between trains at Belgrave and Lilydale by improving weekday interpeak frequency to 20 minutes (as already operates on weekends). That would end the situation where stations like Ringwood East and Heathmont have longer gaps between trains than Geelong despite being half (or less) the distance to the CBD.

A Belgrave/Lilydale line greenfields timetable could be jointly advocated with other councils including Boroondara, Whitehorse, Knox and Yarra Ranges. This area contains a lot of marginal state seats. It is hard to see Brad Battin's Liberal Party regaining office without getting Melbourne's middle-class east and outer back. And if it wants to keep its strong majority Labor also needs to care about retaining its eastern seats in the 2026 state election. Thus there are good reasons for both major parties to back what is a highly cost-effective rail service upgrade. 


Route 737 is a long and popular bus route serving many destinations in the eastern suburbs including Monash University, Glen Waverley, Knox City, Boronia and Croydon. It currently runs every 30 to 40 minutes at most times with a 9pm finish. A SmartBus upgrade would massively improve operating hours and frequency so it's great that Maroondah is supporting its improvement. And the cost is relatively modest, with this being in the low millions of dollars per year in additional service kilometres. 

A 737 SmartBus is the sort of region-wide network upgrade worth advocacy from not only Maroondah but also Knox and Monash councils.  Bus upgrades sometimes have trouble getting reasonable profile in state election campaigns as they are so localised. But this one serves so many seats and useful destinations that a 737 upgrade is an easy sell for 2026. 


Other matters

Smaller items advocated for include 7 day service on buses 671, 672 and 689. This would help address the paucity of weekend and evening bus service in much of Maroondah. The requested 688 extension to Ringwood is also highly desirable with improved connectivity to hospitals just one benefit. 

There's two items I've crossed as not being desirable. Multi-storey commuter day parking (as proposed for Ringwood) is better placed outside of a major town centre. That's because town centres have higher value land more suited to productive housing and commercial uses. Also most town centre parking provided should be time limited to maximise turnover and better support local retail. Parking at stations may have merit in low density fringe areas but (especially) where it needs to be multi-storey the cost per extra rail passenger gained is high relative to other ways to get people to stations (eg improved buses). 

It's commendable though that Maroondah has considered ways of improving access to and around Ringwood CBD. However the on-demand bus concept proposed has a low chance of success. After a faddish honeymoon a few years ago, FlexiRide is generally now recognised as a flop except for niche applications where high operating costs per passenger carried are acceptable. Hence the policy direction now is towards replacing FlexiRide services with new or reformed fixed routes

What about a dedicated fixed route? Both Dandenong and Ringwood had such services many years ago. Ringwood had at least two in the 1980s - a car park shuttle operating as a trial and the Ringwood City Circuit (Route 666) with details here. It is understood that the 666 got incorporated into a larger route.   

An alternative could involve simpler and more frequent regular bus routes with better passenger information. When town centres get beyond a certain size there may be merit in having throughs running through a CBD and out the other side (like trams in the city) rather than terminating at a station terminus. A bus network review for Ringwood is well overdue anyway given that there are substantial long-established areas (eg Eastfield Rd) with no bus coverage at all.  

Conclusion

Maroondah has made some worthwhile proposals in its Transport Strategy. Councils advocate a lot of things. Only rarely do state governments take them on board. But this one has some good ideas  with some wide network benefits that hopefully the state will act on.