ONE MINUTE EXECUTIVE TAKEAWAY Last year I established that there is little relationship between a line's patronage and whether it was likely to have frequent all day service. Lines like Craigieburn had double the waits of the Frankston line yet carried similar numbers. The difference in all week frequent service was even starker with Frankston getting 90 hours per week versus 20 to 30 hours for Werribee and Craigieburn. Both the latter will get added trips when the Metro Tunnel opens but this won't materially change the all week ratio.
Today I check catchment population versus off-peak service levels for middle and outer suburban stations across Melbourne. Again there are big disparities. Popular stations on less served lines get just one-ninth the service relative to population versus stations on the best served line.Both exercises support the view that Melbourne's Metro network lacks funded and implemented master timetable planning that aligns all day rail frequency with objective criteria such as usage or catchment population. Instead historical inertia and political factors have been most powerful in determining the service that suburban stations on electrified lines get.
If you don't want to read tedious station by station comparisons just scroll to near the end for the pre and post Metro Tunnel animated frequency map. There's an action plan to fix this right at the end.
Approaches to planning suburban rail frequencies
b. Operate a low network-wide minimum service standard (eg every 30 min) and run only the densely populated section of the network network frequently all day with most of the rest frequent in peak times only. This is based on the idea that public transport usage is demand-led so it is futile to give everyone a good service all day. Brisbane does this. It's a failure with low patronage relative to both network size and (even more so) rail employee numbers.
c. Similar to b. above but have an even lower minimum service standard (eg every 40-60 min) with history or electoral politics determining which stations get all week frequent service. This is what Melbourne has allowed to happen. That wording is deliberate because my hypothesis is that metropolitan electrified rail service planning is a spasmodic set-and-forget affair that lacks an annual funded continuous improvement program that targets the highest needs first.
Weak patronage rebound for Metro network
While usage of Melbourne's large rail network remains substantial, BITRE reports that it has been the slowest to bounce back in patronage since the pandemic. Contributing factors likely include frequent construction shutdowns, our high working from home rate and long waits at the very times travel activity has grown fastest due to a lack of service reform.
There has also been a structural shift in that we have effectively paused rail electrification to growth suburbs with V/Line diesel trains increasingly taking on the growth area suburban transport task in the west and north. Unlike Metro, V/Line does have a strong and continuous program of proportionately large frequency improvements with these often being (honoured) election promises. The same BITRE report says that V/Line has the fastest growing patronage of Australia's regional rail operators.
Subsequent comments here apply most to metropolitan electrified services.
Method
Today I'll look at the 5km population catchment of metropolitan stations relative to the service it gets.
I used the Population Around a Point website by Tom Forth to calculate station population catchments. The service is midday weekday trains per hour. That off-peak measure is good for many reasons including off-peak frequency being a better proxy of a line's usefulness for diverse trips all day, the growing relative importance of off-peak versus peak travel and off-peak's higher patronage/service elasticity.
So that these circles (mostly) capture only a single train line and do not have a tram option, I picked a ring of suburban stations about 20 to 40km out from the city. Most circles contain several stations but these are on the same line so typically get the same waits between trains.
Below are the two most contrasting examples. Williams Landing on the Werribee line has a high catchment population but gets few trains while Carrum on the Frankston line has one-fifth the population but has twice the train frequency. Together that makes over a 9:1 disparity in service per person in Carrum's favour.
Today's 9:1 disparity is directly due to the less populated line getting lots more midday service while the more populated line stayed stagnant regarding midday service.
Least to most served stations by service / population
I've already discussed the extremes of Williams Landing (lowest service per head) and Carrum (highest service per head). This is my list with twelve more. Each person represents 20 000 people within a 5km radius of the state station. Below is a list of all fourteen stations I reviewed with comments below each one.
There is no connection between a metropolitan train station's catchment population and how frequently its midday trains run.
The most important factors appear to be (i) population distribution of 30 or 40 years ago and (ii) political priorities including the distribution of historically marginal and safe seats.
Inertia in metropolitan (though not regional) rail frequencies has been king for much of the last decade. The threshold to trigger a metropolitan service upgrade (even the cheapest types) is high. You basically need middle class commuters left behind on platforms to get a substantial change to train timetables, such as occurred about 10 to 15 years ago.
The 2025 state budget may represent a turning point with exactly the required lower cost upgrades being funded along with Metro Tunnel operations. That will deliver a major all week frequency upgrade for Watergardens, the second ranked station here. And at least Williams Landing, Narre Warren, Werribee, Broadmeadows, Cranbourne and Springvale should get some gains at other times. However several more like it will be needed before we can say it represents a decisive change from the 'infrastructure over service' stance that dominated this government's first decade.
The bigger picture
You can see massive service disparities across Melbourne. In a nutshell the west+north get a peak only frequent service while many lines in the east+south enjoy a frequent service all day on weekdays and sometimes also weekends (more here). It's a network of haves and have nots, as then Opposition transport spokesman David Hodgett said in 2016.
The Metro Tunnel timetable will give the west its first ever individually frequent all week line (to Watergardens). Craigieburn and Upfield (who see their maximum waits reduced from 40 to 20 min) and Werribee (extra peak trips) also get handy gains. But the overall distribution of who gets all day frequent service remains very skewed. Want this fixed? Keep reading!
Potential 'Big Service' Metro upgrades
Existing high usage and high catchment populations are both good reasons to boost train frequencies at midday and other times. What are the best lines to start with?
1. Belgrave/Lilydale lines - every 10 min to Ringwood, every 20 min Belgrave & Lilydale
On the basis of cutting the longest waits first and being the cheapest to do, a Belgrave/Lilydale timetable rethink could be a good starting point. Key priorities for a Burnley group greenfields might include 20 minute maximum waits for Belgrave and Lilydale, a 10 minute maximum wait at Ringwood and simplified peak timetables with fewer stopping patterns.
However this doesn't fix the east-west divide, which needs the next steps listed to address.
2. Craigieburn line - every 10 min midday
Craigieburn line passengers pay the same fare as Frankston line passengers yet have double the waits, half the service and more crowded trains with higher unique section line ridership. The Metro Tunnel's business case from 2016 was based on the Craigieburn line operating every 10 minutes. This need remains today with its catchment population growing strongly, exacerbated by limited V/Line service at Donnybrook. Scheduling work may be simpler than a Burnley group greenfields timetable so there may be potential for this to be done first.
3. Werribee line - every 10 minutes midday
Though it has fewer stations, Werribee is another strong contender for better midday service. The line also serves a growth area. An upgrade would take some stress off the under pressure Geelong line at Wyndham Vale and Tarneit, especially if weekends used the express line like weekdays do.
4. Mernda, inner Hurstbridge and Sandringham lines - maximum waits cut from 40 to 20 min
A package of low budget evening and Sunday morning upgrades that replicate what the 2025 state budget funded for Craigieburn and Upfield. Sandringham would be especially cheap since it requires a handful of trains added per week. Mernda and Hurstbridge (to Eltham) upgrades are best done simultaneously as part of a Clifton Hill group package, which if split could see Sunday mornings and evenings until at least 10 pm done as the first phase.
Due to relatively simple scheduling and the few extra trips needed the government may wish to make this first priority to provide early and widely spread benefits on lines long neglected.
5. Mernda and inner Hurstbridge lines - every 10 minutes midday
Doubling of daytime service to reduce waits from 20 to 10 minutes. Serving a growth area the Mernda line is the most important but a decision may be taken to deliver similar to part of the Hurstbridge line as part of a Clifton Hill group upgrade. A 10 minute frequency would make train travel more popular in densifying inner areas where passengers must currently choose between slow frequent trams or faster but infrequent trains. It would also encourage bus reform and speed access to La Trobe University (via the existing 301 shuttle).
Other off-peak frequency upgrades not discussed here but which could be desirable are those associated with the Upfield, Glen Waverley, Melton and Geelong lines.
See other Timetable Tuesday items here