Thursday, September 25, 2025

UN 212: Werribee Fast Rail - our second Metro?


In a few months Melbourne's Metro Tunnel should be open.

Service will be frequent. There'll be excitement over the grand new stations and the ability to take one-seat rides under the CBD at good speeds. Travel will also be more predictable - unlike the cantankerous City Loop, there'll be no midday reversals, loop bypasses, transposals or long dwells at Flinders Street. 

 If the Sydney experience is any guide, people will be asking when we are getting a second metro. Not least because efficient cross-city rail transport, unlike in Sydney or Perth, is a novelty here. For many years after the City Loop opened in the 1980s it was not even possible without changing trains. 

In 2010, it became possible when some Frankston weekday trains were run through to the Williamstown and Werribee lines. You could jump on a train at Caulfield or South Yarra and have a cross-city trip to Southern Cross, Footscray, Newport and beyond. This was extended to more trains including weekends.  

This "cross-city group" has not run without trouble. Inconsistent passenger information, inaudible announcements and unexpected terminations at Flinders Street are frequent experiences. Rising from one's seat at Flinders Street to check if you are continuing through or will be turned back is common. 

A freshly painted wall makes your unpainted ceiling look worse than before. Similarly the new Metro Tunnel experience should raise expectations that the "other" cross-city line should get some love. It would serve the same old stations but that matters less than reliable consistent frequent service.

If you can harness the coming Metro Momentum to get two Metros for basically the price of one, then why wouldn't you create what could be called a second Metro? 

Especially if its destinations were useful, such as the fast-growing estates near Werribee and planned housing activity centres along the Sandringham line?

Such a project could include evening and weekend speed improvements, thus earning the more marketable title of: 

Werribee Fast Rail

The first stage of Werribee Fast Rail might include: 

a. Evening and weekend trips via express track with Altona trains starting Laverton. Provides a consistent pattern all week and reduces Werribee to Flinders Street travel time from 45 to 38 min. 
b. 10 minute off-peak frequency 7 days (up from current 20 min service)
c. 10 minute weekend frequency for Sandringham line including Sunday morning upgrade from 40 min
d. Upgrades to the currently dingy Werribee station 
e. Upgrade of Hoppers Crossing to a premium station, staffed first to last train
f. Improved multimodal passenger information at all stations between Werribee and Sandringham including wayfinding and network maps

The above would build on the 10 minute weekday frequency that is already budgeted for on the Sandringham line as part of Metro Tunnel related timetables. Providing all week consistency between Werribee and Sandringham would be a major part of the timetable design process. 

The second stage of Werribee Fast Rail/Second Metro might include: 

a. New station with bus access at Paisley
b. Extension to a station near Harpley Estate on existing track and/or Black Forest Road
c. Millers Rd Route 411 bus upgrade to SmartBus including extended hours and higher frequency
d. A new Newport - Fishermans Bend bus and other bus network simplification in Altona North
e. Bus network simplification on the Sandringham line including (a) upgrades to Route 606 and simplification of complex 600/922/923 route cluster, (b) A direct Sandringham - Southland bus via Bay Rd and (c) A direct Elsternwick - Southland bus via Nepean Hwy to replace the current 823. None of these are dependent on Second Metro so can be done at any time earlier if desired. 

It's already been planned 

The above is not just a crackpot idea from me. This 13 year old PTV video has it, with the Metro Tunnel enabling the creation of four independent Metro lines, including the Werribee/Williamstown - Sandringham 'Cross-city Metro' with increased frequency. The other Metros, also with frequent all day service, would be the Frankston Loop Metro and the Northern Loop Metro involving Craigieburn and Upfield. 



In addition this 2018 Dan Andrews video on the Western Rail Plan described (at 0:15) an animation of a Werribee - Wyndham Vale extension as the 'Western section of the Suburban Rail Loop'. Western Melbourne viewers would also not fail to notice this animation depicted as the Suburban Rail Loop as progressing from west to east (though some others start it from the east, consistent with the Stage 1 announcement).  


Summary

The momentum and enthusiasm of the Metro Tunnel when it opens should not go to waste. It should instead be captured to set in train a second metro to commence as soon as possible after the first.

The most immediate and cost-effective approach to enable this are service and infrastructure upgrades like described above to create a Werribee - Sandringham cross-city Metro. Closely followed by similar for Craigieburn/Upfield's Northern Loop Metro.  

Index to other Useful Network items here


Tuesday, September 23, 2025

TT 214: Craigieburn upgraded bus timetables to start next month (and what's next for bus reform?)


A major feature of bus upgrades in 2025's state budget was a package for the Craigieburn area. These were needed due to the area's high population growth and the strong usage of buses in more established parts of Craigieburn. 

The upgrades, which will start on October 5, were announced on the premier's website and later on Transport Victoria's. However people might have missed it as TV put it in the Projects area, not where  they have other bus upgrades announced. 

PTV/TV shies away from using maps to publicly explain services upgrades even though they need to be produced to explain them to stakeholders such as MPs. Said MPs like them, and being better at public communication than the generally taciturn TV, sometimes post them online. So Ros Spence MP posted a handy TV-produced map on her Facebook page that you won't see on TV's. 

In summary the upgrades include: 

* Craigieburn routes 525, 528, 529, 533, 537 

- Monday to Saturday evening hours boosted to 11:40pm approx

- Monday to Saturday evening frequency boosted to 30 min

        - Route 525 made more direct with the extended 524 serving Kalkallo instead 


The operating hours extensions are arguably most significant of the measures above. These, along with upgrades to several routes in Werribee funded in the 2025 state budget and some earlier initiatives in Cranbourne, ditch the practice that all local bus routes in Melbourne should stop at 9pm Monday to Saturday despite trains, trams and SmartBuses continuing until at least midnight. 

The later trips represent an advance on the 7 day 9pm finish set down in the 2006 MOTC minimum service standards. This was a widely (but not totally) implemented plan that benefited over 100 bus routes in the vigorous period of bus service addition between 2005 and 2010. MOTC reversed about two or three decades of cuts which by late 1991 had removed almost all after 7pm and Sunday service from privately operated (but state funded) metropolitan bus routes.  

What didn't get changed on Craigieburn buses? Weekend morning start times remain too late for some early events or transport connections. Weekends remain at every 40 minutes even though a 20 minute service on routes like 529 and 533 would bring Craigieburn in line with Werribee which already has some 7 day 20 minute services. However Sunday evenings improve with their last buses now nearer to 10pm than 9pm. 

A notable omission is that Route 541 from Broadmeadows to Craigieburn North does not gain from these changes even though, with 24 hour weekend service, it could be a worthy replacement of the less known 953 Night Network only route. 

Also of future interest is what happens to evening bus frequencies when Craigieburn evening trains improve from every 30 to every 20 minutes after the Metro Tunnel opens. Maintaining connectivity will require some headway changes, possibly involving the 20 minute weekday service continuing to later at night before dropping to 40 minutes for the last few trips. 

Overall though these are a good set of bus service upgrades that will make a real difference to how people get around in Craigieburn and surrounds in the 8pm to midnight time slot. 

* 511 Modified to operate to Craigieburn station (instead of Donnybrook) 

Remains a limited peak-only service for now but will get extra trips next year. Craigieburn station has more trains and buses to other destinations. 


* 524 Extended north to serve Cloverton Estate and becomes bidirectional.

Some improvements to operating hours though ~7pm weekend finish remains. The extension adds coverage and replaces 525 in Kalkallo. 


* 543 Extended to Craigieburn Central 

Also with service boosts including:

- Weekday peak frequency boosted 30 to 20 min

- Weekday interpeak frequency boosted 40 to 30 min

- Later finish (10pm instead of 9pm)

As well as providing new coverage the 543 Craigieburn Central extension makes a lot of trips quicker; previously Greenvale and Mickleham Rd passengers had to backtrack to Roxburgh Park and catch a train or bus to get to Craigieburn, which is their nearest large centre. The extended route should get good usage from Day One as the extended route facilitates a bidirectional passenger flow across the day. 

Two things of are of note. (i) The opportunity was not taken to join it to Route 537 to provide a one seat (though somewhat indirect) ride to Craigieburn station and (ii) The 30 minute interpeak weekday frequency (which it shares with the 544) does not harmonise with trains every 20 minutes but offers a more intuitive clockface service that people will probably value more. It is also a step towards an ultimate 20 minute frequency as already runs on most Craigieburn local routes. 

Summary

These Craigieburn area bus network changes are good and will be welcomed by passengers. They bring much needed route coverage, frequency and operating hours extensions to a high patronage and fast growing part of Melbourne's outer north. Usage of the new services is likely to be above the metropolitan average for buses.  

However the government appears to be using a pivot to growth area service boosts like these as reasons to ditch its ambitious but unfunded program of Melbourne north, Melbourne north-east and Mildura area bus network reviews that were promised before the 2022 state election. When both are needed and should not be traded off against the other.

The fate of the bus network reviews represents a continuation of historical patterns writ large. The 2005 to 2010 period was marked by high activity in expanding growth area coverage, upgrading existing local routes and even rolling out new SmartBus routes with the majority of these initiatives done by 2010.

Bus network reviews were in the same MOTC package. They were commissioned but implementation was limited. By the time the reports came out the government's priorities had moved on (in this case addressing severe problems with rail crowding and unreliability) and political interest in buses (and especially network reform) had evaporated.

A similar thing appears to have been repeated (with even less to show) despite substantial DTP spending on staffing, consultants and reports to develop reform proposals that may never see the light of day. Like with financing for large infrastructure projects the financial and/or political appetite needs to be just right for significant bus network reform to happen. If the opportunity is not grabbed immediately it will vanish or at best be redirected to something else.  

Notwithstanding the high value of the funded bus upgrades in areas like Werribee and Craigieburn, dropping the ball on network reform will mean that 30 year backlogs in maybe two-thirds of Melbourne suburbs extend to 40 or 50 years if not more, leading to mounting inefficiencies and a bus network decreasingly fit for purpose.

It looks like the people of Reservoir North-West, for example, will continue to have their midday reversing, occasionally extending 558 bus that finishes at 1pm Saturday for years to come. That is unless an alternative more agile and politically acceptable path to successful and implemented established suburb bus network reform like Perth has developed expertise in can be found.  
 




Friday, September 19, 2025

UN 211: Talking buses - A massive week in the media



Executive Summary: A few thoughts on the future of bus network reform in Melbourne (it needs to proceed in some form despite the reported setbacks) and a summary of numerous media appearances in the last week.  

I've been in the media a lot lately regarding the documents about DTP bus planning that were tabled in the Legislative Council last week.

I was one of the first outside the department to read and index nearly 2000 pages worth of these documents and reports that reveal previously unknown information about Melbourne's bus services and  the implementation of the Bus Reform Implementation Plan as called for in Victoria's Bus Plan. I had worries that the network reform elements of the plan were ailing back in 2023. The released papers validate these concerns.


Background to the 2022 proposed bus reviews

About 18-24 months of substantial planning work, including public engagement and the use of consultants (which wouldn't have been cheap) was done before the plan to reform buses in the three pilot areas of Mildura, Melbourne's north and Melbourne's north-east was apparently ditched.

After that there was to be a staged plan to review and reform buses all across Melbourne out to 2031. This may have increased annual bus usage by around 80 million trips annually, making bus reform about four times the size of the Metro Tunnel and comparable in magnitude to the entire Suburban Rail Loop for its patronage impact. 

Despite Melbourne spending less than other cities on running buses, it is also true that (as it has pointed out) the government is continuing to invest in new bus services. Especially in outer western and northern suburbs with genuinely high transport needs. Examples include growth area funding through GAIC and funding for improved bus services that feed the Ballarat and Traralgon train lines as part of re-coordination with V/Line trains. The 2025 state budget was much better for buses (and also Metro train services) in Melbourne's west and north than the generally threadbare 2023 and 2024 budgets. 

However these upgrades, welcome as they are, do not address multi-decade network inefficiencies and service shortfalls that plague buses in the 5 to 25km ring from Melbourne. The reviews would have done that by tacking route overlaps and weak termini to get us towards a more direct network with buses every 10 minutes along main roads. Instead, especially on weekends, we have long gaps with parts of Bell Street Preston (for example) having similar 40 minute gaps between buses as local routes in the back streets of Moe. Low frequency and short operating hours contribute to the poor perceptions of buses confirmed by market research. 

Unless the government can revive bus network reform in some form (possibly involving simpler, quicker to implement reviews involving small clusters of routes), we'll be waiting years if not decades for weekend service better than every 30 to 60 minutes on key roads like Millers, Bell, Murray, Mahoneys, Warrigal, Springvale, Wellington, Cheltenham, Stud, Narre Warren - Cranbourne and more. Doing nothing here should not be an option given Melbourne's rate of growth and travel patterns that continue to change. 

Bus network reform can be controversial, creating 'winners' and 'losers' even though there might be an overall good. This might have caused some in cabinet to be wary of it. Maybe some involved bit off more than they could chew and/or did not sell the benefits sufficiently to people who mattered. Then there is the opex starvation problem where, especially in a low interest rate environment, it is easier to find (say) $10b for a capital infrastructure project than to fund (say) $200m extra annually for improved services, despite the latter often moving more people. 
 

Views may differ over the merits of the reform plan that got presented to cabinet and not funded.

But there is not doubt that proceeding with Werribee-style weekend frequency and operating hours bus upgrades on main roads and completing the 2006 minimum service standards program on popular local routes in areas with high social needs present a massive opportunity given the power of good quality bus services to spread connectivity, broaden housing choices and save people money. The success of this approach is shown by the strong patronage results arising from service upgrades on key routes such as 733 and 800. Candidate routes could include the likes of 160, 411, 418, 420, 460, 494, 495, 508, 532, 561, 570, 623, 630, 670, 693, 737, 742, 828, 841, 900, 901 (part), 902 (part), 903 (part), 926 etc. 


Media comments

My comments have been on bus service resourcing, bus network reform and tacking fare evasion. 

Here is where people saw, heard or read my comments:  

* 10/9/2025 Australasian Bus & Coach item on Melbourne's bus underspend
https://www.busnews.com.au/tabled-documents-reveal-victorian-government-underinvesting-on-metropolitan-bus-services


* 12/9/2025 Dandenong Star Journal item on bus service underfunding
https://dandenong.starcommunity.com.au/news/2025-09-12/underfunded-bus-boost-call/


* 17/9/2025 ABC News website item on bus network underspend and failure of bus reform plan
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-17/victoria-bus-system-public-transport/105780926


* 17/9/2025 7am ABC Victoria Radio News item regarding bus reform plan


* 17/9/2025 ABC Melbourne radio interview with Raf Epstein on bus network reform (from 36:50 in)
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/melbourne-mornings/mornings/105771218

* 17/9/2025 7pm ABC Victoria TV News item on failure of bus reform plans 
https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NU2502V260S00 



* 18/9/2025 ABC News website item on low touch on rates on Melbourne's buses
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-09-18/victoria-bus-fare-evasion-public-transport-myki/105785946


* 18/9/2025 4:15pm ABC Regional Drive with Prue Bentley (approx 1hr 17 min in) 
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/vic-statewide-drive/drive/105772482

* 18/9/2025 7pm ABC Victoria TV News item on bus fare evasion 
https://iview.abc.net.au/video/NU2502V261S00


Thanks to journalists Sean Mortell, Margaret Paul, Prue Bentley, Raf Epstein and others for compiling these stories. 

Index to Useful Network items

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

TT 213: How Melbourne added 8000 weekly bus services in just 18 months



Executive Summary: Melbourne can roll out upgraded bus services at a far faster pace than has been the case in recent history. We just need to draw inspiration from our own achievements in 2005 to rediscover how to do it. 

Whenever people say that we can't roll out bus upgrades quickly I point out to them that such capability is not impossible with Melbourne having a record to prove it.

As I mentioned a few years ago bus upgrades have their slow and fast times. The early 1990s saw large cuts followed by almost a decade of stagnation. Melbourne had changed but buses hadn't. There were some small improvements in 2002 (including pilot SmartBus routes) but most routes still had restricted hours and frequencies, especially on weekends or after 7pm.

The 2005 state budget sparked a big acceleration with many bus upgrades financed. The following year better bus services was not then the most prominent but became the main legacy of the 2006 Transport and Liveability Statement, otherwise known as 'Meeting our Transport Challenges'.

Since then governments have gone backward in their appetite for bus network upgrades.

In the 2020s getting even one bus route to 7 day service requires significant community campaigns. Victoria's spending on metropolitan bus services is $112 per capita per year - the lowest in the country according to an internal DTP bus benchmarking study made public thanks to its tabling in parliament.


Those documents also reveal that fare evasion on buses is running wild (despite other official numbers understating it) while plans to make buses better stalled due to apparent cabinet rejection of a DTP plan for radical bus network reform in late 2023. That rejection reaffirmed the primacy of infrastructure over service in setting the government's metropolitan public transport priorities ever since 2015. 

2005's big bus budget

The political environment a decade prior was the opposite. In 2005 we weren't spending much on public transport infrastructure. However relatively good economic conditions led to a government that could still consider itself financially prudent while lifting spending on services.

Well-targeted and highly effective advocacy from BusVic's John Stanley and others channelled some of that into buses. That led to improved bus services becoming a major transport policy thrust for several successive state budgets from 2005.   

To get an idea of how big this is I'll let archived Department of Infrastructure websites and media releases do most of the talking. But trust me these upgrades compared to those that followed were huge in both scale and impact.  

Our story starts with a major announcement from Transport Minister Peter Batchelor about the bus improvements funded in that year's state budget. Read the release here: 
https://web.archive.org/web/20070831034319/http://www.dpc.vic.gov.au/domino/Web_Notes/newmedia.nsf/798c8b072d117a01ca256c8c0019bb01/f44b350a8cc385f7ca25709d00002e9d!OpenDocument

Premier Steve Bracks' media release from May 17, 2006 is here: 
https://web.archive.org/web/20080325084926/http://www.dpc.vic.gov.au/domino/Web_Notes/newmedia.nsf/b0222c68d27626e2ca256c8c001a3d2d/c87cb70942f9247aca257172000617f7!OpenDocument

This laid out a $1.4b 10 year plan to boost bus services, with a 22% increase in the first four years involving 250 routes. This was evenly split between weekend and evening upgrades to local bus services and four new SmartBus orbitals (though only three were identified). There was also a major Doncaster area bus package. The first improvements would commence in three months - fast by 2020s standards. 

These bus upgrades were a part of the Meeting Our Transport Challenges plan (or MOTC). It was a sign that metropolitan public transport was emerging as a major issue. There had been changes such as franchising, ticketing, numerous rebrandings and unified information under Metlink but these were not bread and butter fundamentals like infrastructure and more service as were also sorely needed. 

A year after the October 2005 announcement came this update in October 2006: 
https://web.archive.org/web/20070830131004/http://www.dpc.vic.gov.au/domino/Web_Notes/newmedia.nsf/798c8b072d117a01ca256c8c0019bb01/33f2468c487ca1a5ca257202000af987!OpenDocument 
It revealed 8000 more metropolitan bus trips per week had either been added or were to be added between November 2005 and early 2007. Those early 2007 upgrades alone benefited 36 bus routes. The vast majority of these would included new Sunday service plus longer operating hours on other days of the week. 


Growth area transport was then, as it is now, an issue. Here is a page of upgrades that were done. 


Possibly most impressive is this list of upgrades by local government area. This shows the volume of work that was done. It really shows that where there is the will a lot of upgrades can be done in a short time.  


An index page to much of the above is here: 
https://web.archive.org/web/20070830151937/http://www.linkingvictoria.vic.gov.au/DOI/Internet/transport.nsf/AllDocs/6393108372420DE6CA257097000B7001?OpenDocument


Successes in service boosts and SmartBus roll-out

In summary this program delivered large (but not total) implementation of: 

* Minimum service standards on local bus routes (that is at least hourly to 9pm 7 days) 
* A network of premium service SmartBuses operating every 15 minutes weekdays and 30 minutes weekends over long operating hours

These measures were transformative at the time. As would a similar magnitude service uplift would be now. They were also very successful with patronage rising in line with service increases despite the above two not resolving many overlaps on the network.

The MOTC bus upgrades were fortunate to have as sponsor minister Peter Batchelor whose standing in the party and cabinet could see them through (despite him being factionally opposite to then premier Bracks and Treasurer Brumby). They also had the relatively then more prominent (due to its then high membership coverage of metropolitan bus operators) BusVic playing the role of supportive stakeholder. 

Whereas Dr Paul Mees, the state's most vocal and media-successful transport advocate, was pungently dismissive of MOTC with personal animosities towards both Minister Batchelor and Jim Betts, the then Director of Public Transport.

Ditto for the Mees-influenced Public Transport Users Association, whose committee unanimously called on Minister Batchelor to resign the day the MOTC plan came out.  PTUA wanted a revised institutional structure, suburban rail extensions instead of freeways and an even bigger stress on service. Some of these were to later come but not in 2006.

About 70% of the minimum service standards and orbital SmartBuses had been rolled out by the time of Labor's defeat in 2010. Stage 3 (more orbitals) and Stage 4 (grid network across Melbourne) of SmartBus did not proceed, having been dropped from later, more rail-heavy plans. But by 2010 the success of what was done was undeniable. 

Challenges for bus network reform 

The third leg of the MOTC bus initiatives, the sixteen local bus network reviews, was not so successful. Done by consultants commissioned by the department these were more complicated pieces of work than straight service upgrades.

The potential risks (as reform can create 'losers' as well as 'winners') added to the increased costs may have made implementing the reviews less politically attractive than a specific upgrade on a familiar route or an orbital you could draw on a map. Especially as political interest in transport had shifted to addressing surging rail crowding and collapsing reliability by the time the bus reviews came out. Thus only a minority of bus review recommendations were ever implemented.

Changing political and budgetary priorities is one reason why bus reform fails. Budget funding is like acetone - it evaporates quickly if not used. Sometimes it's better to grab what money is going and do stuff ASAP. Even if small or imperfect it moves the network forward. Unlike the nothing that can happen after a grand network review is met with no funding by the time it is ready to implement. Splitting big reviews into smaller ones (maybe only involving 4 to 6 routes), compressing time-lines and (hopefully) developing the capability to do several simultaneously are potential ways forward here.  


Baillieu / Napthine government priorities

What happened after the 2010 state election? SmartBus expansion remained paused but bus network reform survived and even thrived after the change of government. While the incoming Coalition government didn't put in as much new money for buses that the previous Labor government did, it was more open to (potentially controversial) network reform. This was of a somewhat more austere brand than in the Brumby era bus network reviews. But where implemented it still simplified the network, boosted frequencies on key corridors and rolled out more seven day service.

This work was assisted by better focus afforded by the creation of PTV out of Metlink and parts of the department, effectively creating a public transport agency that was not distracted by other matters. 

Achievements under PTV included the radical new 2013 Point Cook bus network and the massive (never exceeded) train, tram and bus reforms of July 2014. Reforms devised during this time continued to be implemented in the first term of the Andrews Labor government, notably Wyndham/Geelong in 2015 and Cranbourne in 2016.


Andrews / Allan government priorities

Under successive Andrews/Allan government transport ministers service upgrades continued apace in regional Victoria, especially for rail but also bus. As the numbers presented above show, Victoria now spends twice as much per capita on regional bus services as it does on metropolitan bus services - a bigger ratio than any other state. With 1100 new bus services per week being added from September 14 2025, the back streets of Moe now have weekend buses as frequent as operate on sections of busy Bell Street Preston (in both cases every 40 min) despite very different demand profiles.



To the extent that Victoria has a public transport service policy, its first priority has been what you might call equal fare/equal service across the state. Expression of that can be found in our almost flat fare structure and the (often laudable) push to upgrade service frequencies on trains and buses across the state to every 60 and increasingly every 40 minutes. 

Metropolitan public transport services, in contrast, were not necessarily the highest interest for either the infrastructure focused premier nor the then (regionally-based) transport minister. This change soon translated into outcomes, including a big drop in service uplifts and service reform compared to the more active 2005-2015 decade. 

Planning that was done, such as 2012's Network Development Plan (Metropolitan Rail) service upgrades or the promised 2022 Mildura, north and north-eastern bus network reviews, were at best marginally implemented or at worst abandoned.

Piecemeal changes including new routes in new areas and some welcome service increases continued. There was however not a lot of network reform, with the Baillieu/Napthine government's record in this area looking like a model for dynamism (the reverse of the narrative for infrastructure). Overall bus services improved at a slower pace than the hopes generated in the 2021 Bus Plan and the network reviews launched the following year.  

Some lessons for bus reformers

Large-scale service-oriented policies like bus service expansion and reform need to be carried by a minister who is a compelling policy champion with the required cabinet support and not in any  premier's 'freezer'. DTP also needs leadership that can win support both internally and with stakeholders. Whatever his other merits, the previous secretary could hardly be described as having a magnetic approach that readily attracted such critical buy-in.  

For buses this was history repeating itself from fifteen years prior - the more complex or bigger the network reviews, the less their chance of success seems to be. On the other hand a small number of small reviews delivers small results so that's not great either.

The best outcomes seem to come from either doing a large number of small changes as part of daily business (the Perth model) or some medium sized area reviews (which Melbourne did well in the 2013 - 2016 period). 


Going big (like was attempted with bus reform - and you need to credit DTP's audacity here) was however no impediment for infrastructure construction. Indeed it seemed the bigger it was the more likely a project was to happen.

Encouraged by a bullish population outlook, low interest rates and the perceived excitement of infrastructure, metropolitan transport policy came to be 99% about major projects with this core to how the Andrews government saw itself. Regional services have also done well, with midday service levels now equalling or exceeding some underinvested-in metropolitan routes. 

While this mix has to date not necessarily delivered the best value transport network outcomes for the biggest number of people, this stance was rewarded by electoral success and not challenged by a disunited state opposition too busy fighting (and suing) itself. And there is always the opportunity to add service in the future with the overhaul of the timetables after the Metro Tunnel's opening a test of the government here.


Tuesday, September 09, 2025

TT 212: Metro Tunnel timetable implementation sequencing

 


The public does not yet know much about the new timetables associated with the Metro Tunnel Project.

The state government has said multiple times that Metro Tunnel service will start later this year (2025). Presumably to demonstrate their management credentials, they have especially stressed about this being earlier than the 2026 proposed in the Business Case from 2016.

Reported delays to parts of the project have tested hopes for a 2025 commencement. And government messaging for a while was patchy. Articles like this June 28 2025 item in The Age gave rise to time pressure speculation, including the possibility of an awkward off-peak only service at the new stations to start off with. Then the government reasserted its late 2025 start aim and things went quiet. 

2025 vs 2026? It doesn't really matter. What's most important is that we get a consistent, frequent and reliable service good enough for the Metro Tunnel to truly transform transport in Melbourne.

My view, informed by the Network Development Plan (Metropolitan Rail), is that this needs to include:

* A 5 minute all day core frequency operating through the new Metro Tunnel stations
* 10 minute all day frequencies on main connecting suburban lines, and
* Complementary tram network reform

If we don't get all three within a reasonable time of the Metro Tunnel opening then the project would not represent value for money as the realised benefits are just too small. I'm talking value (or what we get) here, whereas much commentary about major projects just dwells on cost (or what we pay).  

The above are pretty basic specifications. They are as important as the number of exits a station has. And far more important than station architecture or art. Yet so far we don't know much about the service we'll be getting, fostering an environment of speculation in the media and elsewhere. 

In the two months since The Age article came out construction has progressed well. Anzac, Arden and State Library stations are pretty much complete. There have been public tours and events involving these stations. Work on Town Hall is apparently progressing fast. And trains have been doing test runs in preparation for service. It was possible to observe these test runs from public locations to get an idea of potential frequencies operated. The government reaffirmed a 2025 start of service. 

A few days ago a Herald Sun article returned to the theme of the Metro Tunnel's opening schedule. There is still mention of a 'soft' start but in a more sensible manner than the off-peak suggestion in June. Here's an excerpt:   

The tunnel remains on track for a “soft” launch that could be as soon as late November, but is more likely to be in December, with new services initially limited during peak hours to assess and manage the new line ahead of full services." 

"This could potentially see Metro’s capability ramped up in three phases;

the first being to switch on for use,
the second to increase peak period services, and
a third to overhaul the state’s public transport timetables to fully maximise benefits across Melbourne.

The third point about the overhaul is of most interest to anyone who wants Metro Tunnel project benefits to spread as widely as possible. 

On Melbourne's peak-heavy network the biggest transformation for the least amount of extra trips added is to cut off-peak maximum waits from 30-40 min to 20 min. 

This got funded for the Craigieburn and Upfield lines in the 2025 state budget. However so far nothing has been said for the Burnley and Clifton Hill groups. 

One hopes that addressing these is within scope of the third phase overhaul. Map below is what is needed to get to a maximum 20 min wait across the network (with minor exceptions). 


Around 5% more weekly trips scheduled could go a long way to addressing this, so let's hope it happens! 

After that then the next logical step is a progressive move to ten minute off-peak frequencies on key lines such as Craigieburn and a greenfields timetable on the Burnley group that has too many stopping patterns and low evening and Sunday morning frequencies. I discussed priorities last week here.

Only with subsequent CBD tram reform and a 5 minute core frequency, will the Metro Tunnel become the genuine game changer for public transport it should and deserves to be. 

Index to Timetable Tuesday items here

Thursday, September 04, 2025

UN 210: Twelve years of retrospective items added: 2006 - 2018



Something different. Instead of writing much for today, I've been posting on the 2006 - 2018 era with items backdated. A time that started with Connex scrambling to keep up with surging rail patronage and ending with a low interest rate spell when building almost anything seemed possible, affordable and 'the right thing to do'.  

Check the listing of previous posts in the period 2006 - 2018 (on the right if viewing on a desktop computer) for more than 20 additions in the period. You will find coverage of important events in Melbourne public transport, including major rail, tram and bus service changes. Most items have links to archived websites where you can read what was said at the time. 

I wrote about the transport policy context of this era here. Priorities were different and in many respects the reverse of today. Large (or even small) infrastructure projects seemed impossible. But train and bus service reforms were both more possible and daily business.

If Melbourne had a decade of service in public transport then 2006 to 2015 would be it. Note that this emphasis was bipartisan, covering spans of both Labor and Coalition governments. That decade became two decades for V/Line trains, whose service levels continues to expand today, thanks to the benevolent then minister and now Premier Jacinta Allan, who happens to be regionally-based.

Metropolitan train and bus service matters stopped being a political priority in about 2015, with infrastructure builds taking centre stage. So much so that even when projects were completed hoped for service boosts either didn't happen or were underwhelming.

There are however early indications of revived government interest in service with the 2025 state budget funding some promising frequency boosts for the Craigieburn and Upfield lines (albeit short of what was envisaged in the 2016 Metro Tunnel Business Case) as well as some good bus improvements in the west and north.  

With that in mind it's worth recalling some of the key milestones from this earlier more service conscious period to get an idea of what was possible and done. Here's a few: 

* June 18, 2007 An item saying that 34 bus routes had been upgraded to minimum service standards between April and June 2007 as part of the Meeting our Transport Challenges upgrade program (Phase 2). These (and later) upgrades were successful with bus usage rising in line with service. The pace of bus service upgrades has fallen since with significant political campaigning needed to get even one bus route upgraded to run 7 days. 

* October 10, 2010 285 extra weekly train services with a pre-election off-peak frequency boost for the Frankston line with interpeak services going from every 15 to 10 minutes. But there was a catch. Half the services would retain their operation via the City Loop with the other half operating direct to Flinders Street. Presumably to get passengers used to direct operation which would later apply for all Frankston trains (but not until a lot of political argy-bargy over many years). Werribee, Craigieburn and Sydenham got extra peak trains while other lines went from 3 to 6 carriages on weekends.  

* May 8, 2011 This was when 635 extra weekly services were added to the metropolitan rail network then operated by Connex. This increased total weekly services to 14 000, ie an increase of 5% in one timetable change. Metro currently run 17000 weekly services, so barely keeping up with population.

An equivalent 5% uplift today (ie about 850 extra services) would be enough to cut maximum waits across the entire network from 30-40 to 20 minutes at all but a few stations so asking why this has not been a priority is a fair question given that Melbourne's off-peak rail frequencies increasingly lag Sydney and even Perth.  

* April 22, 2012 A revolutionary day for weekend train travellers in Melbourne's east and south with Ringwood, Dandenong and Frankston getting weekend trains boosted from every 20 to every 10 minutes between approximately 10 am and 7pm. Nothing bigger has happened to weekend timetables since anywhere in Melbourne. Although the Frankston line got its evening and Sunday morning maximum waits cut from 30 to 20 min much later (in 2021).   

* December 23, 2013 This was a bit of a schmozzle. Metro announced a reduced service summer timetable with big peak period gaps that in my view (I was there at the time) should never have been approved by PTV. It was particularly a problem after mid-January by which many had returned to work. Melbourne has varied in its approach to reduced summer timetables. Connex actually stopped doing them in 2007 but at some point they reappeared under Metro, only to later disappear. 

* July 27, 2014 Basically a summary item for what was possibly the biggest service reform package for public transport across many modes. Item has links to posts I'd previously made detailing parts of this package. You really need to read the full item to appreciate the amount of what was done - the less service focused DTP of today would throw up its hands and say 'no can't do' as it was so big. 

* October 12, 2014 Another pre-election sweetener for the Frankston line with some peak trips added. V/Line had some major changes including new stations opening. Plus the restoration of the controversially deleted express 303 bus route to Ringwood North.  

Remember other important dates for the network? Please share your memories in the comments below. 


See other Useful Network items here


Tuesday, September 02, 2025

TT 211: Trains and People - Who gets the most service in the suburbs?


ONE MINUTE EXECUTIVE TAKEAWAY Last year I established that there is little relationship between a line's patronage and whether it was likely to have frequent all day service. Lines like Craigieburn had double the waits of the Frankston line yet carried similar numbers. The difference in all week frequent service was even starker with Frankston getting 90 hours per week versus 20 to 30 hours for Werribee and Craigieburn. Both the latter will get added trips when the Metro Tunnel opens but this won't materially change the all week ratio.
Today I check catchment population versus off-peak service levels for middle and outer suburban stations across Melbourne. Again there are big disparities. Popular stations on less served lines get just one-ninth the service relative to population versus stations on the best served line.

Both exercises support the view that Melbourne's Metro network lacks funded and implemented master timetable planning that aligns all day rail frequency with objective criteria such as usage or catchment population. Instead historical inertia and political factors have been most powerful in determining the service that suburban stations on electrified lines get.
If you don't want to read tedious station by station comparisons just scroll to near the end for the pre and post Metro Tunnel animated frequency map. There's an action plan to fix this right at the end.  

  

 Approaches to planning suburban rail frequencies


There's at least three approaches to deciding how frequently suburban trains should run. The transport authority (which in our context includes the state government and DTP) could: 

a. Operate a decent minimum service level (say every 15 min) on all lines across the week. That has the virtue of simplicity - rock up at any station at any time and you'll have a train soon. The idea that supply (in this case frequent service) is a major driver of public transport demand so it should be high, especially given that most railway costs are fixed and the marginal cost of off-peak frequency is low. This is basically what Sydney and Perth do with minor imperfections (Sydney not quite all stations, Perth not after 9pm). Both networks are good patronage performers relative to their size and historically. 

b. Operate a low network-wide minimum service standard (eg every 30 min) and run only the densely populated section of the network network frequently all day with most of the rest frequent in peak times only. This is based on the idea that public transport usage is demand-led so it is futile to give everyone a good service all day. Brisbane does this. It's a failure with low patronage relative to both network size and (even more so) rail employee numbers. 

c. Similar to b. above but have an even lower minimum service standard (eg every 40-60 min) with history or electoral politics determining which stations get all week frequent serviceThis is what Melbourne has allowed to happen. That wording is deliberate because my hypothesis is that metropolitan electrified rail service planning is a spasmodic set-and-forget affair that lacks an annual funded continuous improvement program that targets the highest needs first. 

Weak patronage rebound for Metro network

While usage of Melbourne's large rail network remains substantial, BITRE reports that it has been the slowest to bounce back in patronage since the pandemic. Contributing factors likely include frequent construction shutdowns, our high working from home rate and long waits at the very times travel activity has grown fastest due to a lack of service reform. 

There has also been a structural shift in that we have effectively paused rail electrification to growth suburbs with V/Line diesel trains increasingly taking on the growth area suburban transport task in the west and north. Unlike Metro, V/Line does have a strong and continuous program of proportionately large frequency improvements with these often being (honoured) election promises. The same BITRE  report says that V/Line has the fastest growing patronage of Australia's regional rail operators. 

Subsequent comments here apply most to metropolitan electrified services. 

Method 

Today I'll look at the 5km population catchment of metropolitan stations relative to the service it gets.

I used the Population Around a Point website by Tom Forth to calculate station population catchments. The service is midday weekday trains per hour. That off-peak measure is good for many reasons including off-peak frequency being a better proxy of a line's usefulness for diverse trips all day, the growing relative importance of off-peak versus peak travel and off-peak's higher patronage/service elasticity. 

So that these circles (mostly) capture only a single train line and do not have a tram option, I picked a ring of suburban stations about 20 to 40km out from the city. Most circles contain several stations but these are on the same line so typically get the same waits between trains.  

Below are the two most contrasting examples. Williams Landing on the Werribee line has a high catchment population but gets few trains while Carrum on the Frankston line has one-fifth the population but has twice the train frequency. Together that makes over a 9:1 disparity in service per person in Carrum's favour.    


Williams Landing is a comparatively new station, opening in 2013. The Werribee line on which it is situated has generally had a fixed 20 minute midday service for much longer. This compares to the Frankston line which also ran every 20 minutes until it was upgraded to every 15 minutes in the 1990s and every 10 minutes in the 2010s. On the population side, Williams Landing's catchment has gone from mostly open space to heavily populated in the last thirty years.

Today's 9:1 disparity is directly due to the less populated line getting lots more midday service while the more populated line stayed stagnant regarding midday service.  

Least to most served stations by service / population

I've already discussed the extremes of Williams Landing (lowest service per head) and Carrum (highest service per head). This is my list with twelve more. Each person represents 20 000 people within a 5km radius of the state station. Below is a list of all fourteen stations I reviewed with comments below each one. 


Werribee line. Discussed above. Top ranked due to its high population density with only a basic 20 minute midday frequency on the Werribee line. Laverton to Werribee portion serves a fast growing catchment.


Sunbury line. Similar story to Williams Landing with high population but only basic midday service. Middle Footscray to St Albans section densifying, Watergardens is the nearest station to some growth areas. Metro Tunnel timetable will soon double its midday frequency to 10 minutes to provide a service that better reflects usage.


Pakenham line. Like stations in the west and north this outer south-east station combines a high population catchment with a 20 minute service midday service. Station is beyond the split at Dandenong which enjoys a 10 minute midday service. This service commenced in July 2014 with midday trains previously only every 15 minutes to Dandenong and every 30 minutes on the branches. Should gain from Metro Tunnel with frequency improvements most likely evenings and Sunday mornings (not midday).
 


Geelong line. Busiest V/Line station apart from Southern Cross. Growth area catchment. Midday trains every 20 minutes which is sometimes better than some peak period gaps. This is a new station on a new section of line that did not exist before 2015. Timetable has larger evening gaps than Werribee line and late morning starts on weekends. 


Lilydale line. Not particularly densely populated but this and the Belgrave line has some of Melbourne's longest gaps between midday trains with Adelaide or Brisbane style 30 minute headways. Waits are already longer than at more distant stations such as Melton and Geelong with Sunbury to surpass Croydon's service levels when the Metro Tunnel opens. Midday weekday service levels have been unchanged for many decades though weekend trains got improved to every 20 minutes in 2012. This make the Lilydale line (along with Belgrave) alone in having a better midday weekend service than weekday service for no rational service planning reason except inertia. More details on the More Trains Melbourne's East Facebook page

Belgrave line. Everything said above for Croydon station applies to Boronia on the Belgrave line. Both lines lag the similarly configured Pakenham and Cranbourne branches which enjoy a higher (20 min) interpeak weekday service.  

Mernda line. Has the typical 20 minute frequency common on northern and western suburban lines as has remained for decades. Line is continuously populated in Melbourne with stations to the south having densifying catchments and stations from Epping to Mernda with growth area catchments including Wollert (which will soon be getting upgraded feeder buses). Line has no infrastructure limitations preventing it going to every 10 minutes. Liberals promised to introduce a 10 minute midday service on the (then) South Morang line in 2014 but lost government. There have been negligible timetable upgrades in the decade since with evenings and Sunday mornings remaining at every 30 and 40 minutes respectively.  


Werribee line. Major centre with growth area catchment. See Williams Landing above. 


Craigieburn line. Another continuously populated line this is another northern suburb line that has lacked significant service uplifts for many decades with its 20 minute midday headway seemingly stuck in stone. Possibly now Melbourne's most crowded, the line serves growth areas north of Craigieburn. Metro Tunnel Business Case envisaged midday service would improve to every 10 minutes but government appears to have walked back on this, with 2025 budget funding aiming only to get maximum waits down to 20 minutes from their current evening and Sunday morning 30 to 40 minutes. 


Cranbourne line. Large growth area catchment with many residents hoping for an extension to Clyde. Beyond the branch at Dandenong. Midday 20 minute service commenced in 2014 with this being an upgrade on the previously 30 minute intervals. Everything said for Narre Warren also applies here. 

Hurstbridge line. Inner portion of line to Eltham has a similar basic service level as Mernda, including 20 minute midday headways. Similarly its timetable has been largely stagnant over many years. 


Ballarat line. As part of the V/Line network, Melton has enjoyed a stronger trajectory of service improvements than most Metro lines. That includes midday weekday services improving from approximately one to three trains per hour. Weekend services have also improved but not by as much with the most recent improvement from every 60 to every 40 minutes. The line serves one of Melbourne's fastest growing corridors and significant further investment in improvements is envisaged. 



Pakenham/Cranbourne line. One of a string of very busy station between Caulfield and Dandenong. Currently enjoys a 10 min midday service with likely evening and Sunday morning gains after the Metro Tunnel opens. Had a 15 minute midday service prior to the 2014 upgrade. Arguably now justifies a 5 min midday service which would be assisted by its (now) lack of level crossings. 

Frankston line. Discussed extensively before, Carrum enjoys suburban Melbourne's highest train service level with trains consistently every 10-20 minutes at all times but in early hours of Sunday morning. This was not always the case with a steady stream of upgrades basically doubling service since the 1990s, assisted by the line having several political swing seats. Bayside placement and inland Green Wedge contributes to catchment population of less than 60 000. But even doubled population would retain Carrum's spot as Melbourne's highest served station for its distance from the CBD. 

Discussion of results

There is no connection between a metropolitan train station's catchment population and how frequently its midday trains run. 

The most important factors appear to be (i) population distribution of 30 or 40 years ago and (ii) political priorities including the distribution of historically marginal and safe seats.

Inertia in metropolitan (though not regional) rail frequencies has been king for much of the last decade. The threshold to trigger a metropolitan service upgrade (even the cheapest types) is high. You basically need middle class commuters left behind on platforms to get a substantial change to train timetables, such as occurred about 10 to 15 years ago. 

The 2025 state budget may represent a turning point with exactly the required lower cost upgrades being funded along with Metro Tunnel operations. That will deliver a major all week frequency upgrade for Watergardens, the second ranked station here. And at least Williams Landing, Narre Warren, Werribee, Broadmeadows, Cranbourne and Springvale should get some gains at other times. However several more like it will be needed before we can say it represents a decisive change from the 'infrastructure over service' stance that dominated this government's first decade. 


The bigger picture

Here's a map showing the Metro network with the most and least amount of frequent service across the day. Black lines have no frequent service, brown lines are frequent in peaks only while green lines are frequent in the off-peaks too. It alternates between existing pre-Metro Tunnel and what I understand will be the service levels post-Metro. Click map for better view.  



Frequent is defined as every 15 minutes, a common threshold and base frequency for Australian transit systems. The thickest green lines are frequent seven days. Everything is daytime only as no single route or line in Melbourne has consistently frequent evening service (although some overlaps do).  

You can see massive service disparities across Melbourne. In a nutshell the west+north get a peak only frequent service while many lines in the east+south enjoy a frequent service all day on weekdays and sometimes also weekends (more here). It's a network of haves and have nots, as then Opposition transport spokesman David Hodgett said in 2016

The Metro Tunnel timetable will give the west its first ever individually frequent all week line (to Watergardens). Craigieburn and Upfield (who see their maximum waits reduced from 40 to 20 min) and Werribee (extra peak trips) also get handy gains. But the overall distribution of who gets all day frequent service remains very skewed. Want this fixed? Keep reading!   

Potential 'Big Service' Metro upgrades 

Existing high usage and high catchment populations are both good reasons to boost train frequencies at midday and other times. What are the best lines to start with? 

1. Belgrave/Lilydale lines - every 10 min to Ringwood, every 20 min Belgrave & Lilydale

On the basis of cutting the longest waits first and being the cheapest to do, a Belgrave/Lilydale timetable rethink could be a good starting point. Key priorities for a Burnley group greenfields might include 20 minute maximum waits for Belgrave and Lilydale, a 10 minute maximum wait at Ringwood and simplified peak timetables with fewer stopping patterns.

However this doesn't fix the east-west divide, which needs the next steps listed to address. 


2. Craigieburn line - every 10 min midday

Craigieburn line passengers pay the same fare as Frankston line passengers yet have double the waits, half the service and more crowded trains with higher unique section line ridership. The Metro Tunnel's business case from 2016 was based on the Craigieburn line operating every 10 minutes. This need remains today with its catchment population growing strongly, exacerbated by limited V/Line service at Donnybrook. Scheduling work may be simpler than a Burnley group greenfields timetable so there may be potential for this to be done first. 

3. Werribee line - every 10 minutes  midday

Though it has fewer stations, Werribee is another strong contender for better midday service. The line also serves a growth area. An upgrade would take some stress off the under pressure Geelong line at Wyndham Vale and Tarneit, especially if weekends used the express line like weekdays do. 

4. Mernda, inner Hurstbridge and Sandringham lines - maximum waits cut from 40 to 20 min

A package of low budget evening and Sunday morning upgrades that replicate what the 2025 state budget funded for Craigieburn and Upfield. Sandringham would be especially cheap since it requires a handful of trains added per week. Mernda and Hurstbridge (to Eltham) upgrades are best done simultaneously as part of a Clifton Hill group package, which if split could see Sunday mornings and evenings until at least 10 pm done as the first phase.

Due to relatively simple scheduling and the few extra trips needed the government may wish to make this first priority to provide early and widely spread benefits on lines long neglected. 

5. Mernda and inner Hurstbridge lines - every 10 minutes midday

Doubling of daytime service to reduce waits from 20 to 10 minutes. Serving a growth area the Mernda line is the most important but a decision may be taken to deliver similar to part of the Hurstbridge line as part of a Clifton Hill group upgrade. A 10 minute frequency would make train travel more popular in densifying inner areas where passengers must currently choose between slow frequent trams or faster but infrequent trains. It would also encourage bus reform and speed access to La Trobe University (via the existing 301 shuttle). 

Other off-peak frequency upgrades not discussed here but which could be desirable are those associated with the Upfield, Glen Waverley, Melton and Geelong lines. 


See other Timetable Tuesday items here