Sunday, January 11, 2026

EVERYTHING I've written about the Metro Tunnel

Excitement is building over the 'real' Metro Tunnel opening - that is when it becomes part of the regular rail network with frequent service day and night - on February 1, 2026.

Why the anticipation?

There is a particularly high anticipation with regards to the timetables we will get. I put this down to these reasons:

a. The government has been cagey about releasing even basic service specifications for the frequencies we'll get (the most official thing we've had to go on is the service plan 2016 Metro Tunnel Business Case which was done pre pandemic under a very different transport patronage and policy context).  

b. Low frequencies on most of the Metro network most of the day that shape its role and how useful it is. Going from 2 to 6 trains per hour or 14 to 18 trains per hour is the same service increase but the former is transformative while the latter merely adds some capacity. Timetables are thus more important on less frequent lines. 

c. The government's decade-long record of growing Metro service frequencies at a rate slower than population increase, as if they were hoarding them for something big later. That also means pent up expectations for when boosts do happen. 

d. Official communication that attributes the Metro service increases that happened to the infrastructure program  (even off-peak ones that did not need said infrastructure to implement)

e. Government advertising and media building up expectations such as posters saying 'more trains more often across Melbourne' and the premier promising a new timetable everywhere,  




Varying expectations

My observations when talking to people is that expectations on the service we'll get after the 'Big Switch' on February 1 vary greatly.

Those close to the project or who follow state transport and politics closely have had their expectations tempered. They may shrug their shoulders but won't be too surprised when the February 1 'Big Switch' timetables come out. After all peak travel patterns (especially) have changed since the pandemic and Melbourne's commuter-oriented and often bus replaced train network has been slow to build back patronage. This government also has a reputation for adding about the least amount of Metro service it can get away with after previous infrastructure works (although V/Line has fared much better). 

However those not close to the project or the industry (ie the 'punters' and 'normies') take promises at face value, hope that big projects will 'do the right thing' and only 'tune in' occasionally. Their expectations have not been tempered like insiders' have. So they may turn angry if what was perceived as a promise ends up not happening, even if those closer knew this all along. 

An example is this Radio 3AW story on Belgrave/Lilydale not getting a new timetable that aired on December 30 2025. Insiders could have told you that being separate the Burnley (and Clifton Hill) group were unlikely to get anything during the 'Big Switch' as it's more usual to implement timetables in stages to  match delivery capacity and manage risks. But public perception and expectations may be different, especially if fuelled by the government's own messaging (which as recent as January 3, 2026 said there would be Mernda and Hurstbridge timetable changes). Such over-selling poses a political risk for the government (in an election year no less) if what should be a huge 'good news' story acquires some unnecessary negatives, exacerbated by a - e above.    

For what it's worth, below are my own expectations of what will happen on February 1 (and later in 2026). Click for a clearer view. 


This item is only about scheduled service levels but I should flag reliability as a reputational risk for the Metro Tunnel. Unlike Sydney's Metro (which is an isolated independent system) the Metro Tunnel feeds suburban lines from both directions, so is subject to their problems. While the government has removed level crossings along them, there are still other reliability and infrastructure risks, as we have seen during recent hot weather. And even with relatively small disruptions the continuity of frequent service in the Metro Tunnel is quite fragile as it just needs one train not to run for it to have 20 minute gaps in the middle of the day. 

What I've written about the Metro Tunnel (date order)

If you can only read a few, see these ones first.

10 October 2025 15 years since Melbourne's first 10 min frequent train line (Metro Tunnel will add 2nd)
2 December 2025 Metro Tunnel has opened - some videos (includes my main Metro Tunnel video)
4 December 2025 What to do about Richmond, South Yarra and North Melbourne
1 January 2026 Welcome to 2026

So when will we see the Metro Tunnel timetables? Normally TV's website publishes new timetables early Friday afternoons. With the build up of the Now We're Moving / More Ways To Move campaigns, this Friday (16 January) could be a hot prospect. In past cases there have been media releases the day before new timetables emerge so keep checking the premier's website too. 

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Monday, January 05, 2026

Youth Myki is here - but pity about the Transport Victoria website!

Every single state Labor MP up to and including the premier has gone into overdrive promoting the free statewide travel for under 18s that applies from January 1, 2026.

Why wouldn't they? It could save people money and it's an election year after all! 

The problem arises with what happens next. Let's assume people do as the advertising tells them to do and try to learn more on the Transport Victoria website.

Let's also assume this is part of getting ready for the new year. People might start school, change schools, switch jobs, get older and a myriad of other things that causes a change of travel habits with implications for public transport ticketing. There may be non-typical travel such as during holidays and to special events  like the Australian Open. There also needs to be messaging over Christmas and New Years travel arrangements, not to mention the annual 1 January CPI fare rise. 

Most of the above happens every year, though albeit with additional complexities in 2025-26 due to (i) the Youth Myki introduction, (ii) weekend free travel extensions for Seniors and (iii) the Metro Tunnel opening and associated free weekend travel promotions over December-January.

Still, all this was known and planned in advance. So there are no excuses for DTP/Transport Victoria not to get everything sorted, including website information and messaging. Especially given all the media and public interest generated.  

Transport Victoria ticketing website a mess

On this the Myki types section of the Transport Victoria website is an absolute binfire that has only got worse since the January 1 Youth Myki introduction. 

Suppose you are a parent or guardian of three children aged 17, 18 and 19. 

Each should be old enough to work out which myki they need. But for this exercise suppose that you try it. The 17 year old is probably the easiest, the 19 year old's ticket will depend on their circumstances while the 18 year old's arrangements should be much easier to find out about than it is.

Though even for the 17 year old you may still be fumbling. For example if you saw the publicity about free and 17 year old then you might think that clicking free travel myki would help. But no it doesn't. Although 17 year olds get free travel it's not explained here as the Youth Myki they need is somewhere else. It affects only a small minority but the section below on home-schooled students introduces unnecessary ambiguity. 


Then there's the blurb for each myki type you see when deciding which to select. Sometimes that tells you what a ticket does (eg Concession) but in other cases it tells you who it is for. The text for Youth Myki "Choose the myki that best suits your eligibility and travel requirements" is actually duplicated  at the top of the Myki types page so adds no further information. Having 'Mobile Myki' on this page possibly adds another layer of confusion.  

Knowing which Myki to buy should be a 10 second decision. Instead Transport Victoria makes it 10 minutes (or more) with no guarantee people will get it right. 

Transport Victoria's fares and ticketing messaging really needs to be clear and watertight because adverse consequences can result including heavy fines (the human impacts of which should be especially understood post Robodebt).

Other risks can arise from appeals being successful, the poor perception of AOs and fare compliance collapsing (as we have already seen on buses). This has serious consequences for both goodwill and foregone revenue for the public transport network that DTP apparently willingly leaves on the table. 


If the law basically says "ignorance is no excuse" when it comes to fare infractions then there should be a concomitant obligation on DTP to make all reasonable attempts to explain ticketing well.

Even a cursory glance at the Transport Victoria website shows that they have failed here with this becoming more complex in the older teenager range (with youth justice implications here too).

While the legal instrument is the gazetted Victorian Fares and Ticketing Conditions 2026 manual, 99.9% of people will be relying on the above Transport Victoria website, especially given the gradual phase-out of brochures that used to explain ticketing conditions. Those relying on the Transport Victoria website include transport operator staff who may be asked for advice on tickets to buy. As well as others in social and community services who may have a non-transport background. 

The ticket type for you

Having established that Transport Victoria does not do its job of simply and concisely explain suitable Myki card types, is it possible for someone else to have a go?

Sometimes the task is impossible. For example public holiday arrangements for Melbourne buses are inherently so complex that it require a thesis-length essay to explain. Transport Victoria sometimes tries but often get it wrong. TV should do better but the root cause lies in the complexity of arrangements (that no one has yet found the couple of million dollars per year to fix, although 2025-26 finally saw the end of reduced summer weekday timetables with routes 503 and 506 being the hold-outs). 

Happily Myki types are simpler. It's true that there are various non-myki free travel passes and other tickets (mainly used for regional areas). But for overwhelming majority of passengers in places where about 90% of Victorians live it's not too complex. 

Unlike Transport Victoria, which shies away from graphics to explain things, I have no such constraints. Here's my go at explaining Myki types available:    


It misses some things (like where to buy Myki cards, non-card options and fare types) but I think it still tells quite a lot. 

If you wanted to distil this down to a series of question (such as if you prefer flow charts or are handling a telephone enquiry) you would start with asking the person's age. 

This narrows it down a lot. Because there are certain age groups (most notably all under 19s) for which there is just one ticket option. That ticket option is a Youth Myki for those under 18 and a Concession Myki for those in the 18 to 19 range, regardless of circumstance. Those turning 19 flip to full fare unless they can demonstrate continued eligibility for concession fares (eg being a local full time student). 

Over 60s are almost as simple. In all but a few cases they would have a Seniors Card and thus the appropriate concession. An even smaller number (not shown) are the full time working Seniors whose income is low enough to get a concession.  

That leaves those between 19 and 60 that are overwhelmingly either full or concession fare myki. This requires further questions, such as asking about student status (mostly for younger people) or various other concession eligibility. And there is what is effectively a subsection of concession fare myki that gives similar free weekend travel privileges that Seniors get. 

Summary

Transport Victoria has excelled in meeting the low expectations people have of its website. 

Especially in public transport fares and ticketing - a high profile area that is politically sensitive and involves legal enforcement.  

As is possible, TV could and should be doing much better in explaining ticketing to people, especially given recent changes, and especially at this time of year. 
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Thursday, January 01, 2026

UN 220: Welcome to 2026!


Happy new year!

Like this day in 2025 I'll run through what you most liked reading here and then talk about the challenges and opportunities facing the government in public transport for 2026. 

What you liked reading about in 2025

Melbourne on Transit had a record year in 2025. Views over the year reached 669000 - more than double last year's 285000. Despite fewer posts, December 2025 was the busiest month on record, closely followed by November 2025. Thanks all for reading. 


Anticipation about and items on the Metro Tunnel helped drive this readership spike. Possibly assisted by the state government being a bit cagey on the service levels we'll get. That may have led to people looking for alternative sources for information (or even speculation) such as sometimes provided here. 

Notwithstanding that the most read item in 2025 was my Sydney versus Melbourne comparison on who has the better transport. Sydney had been way ahead. The Metro Tunnel will give Melbourne a lift but we're nowhere near to matching Sydney until we boost frequencies across all modes. 

As for the Metro Tunnel's benefits, two items from 2024 were highly read in 2025. These looked at whether the Metro Tunnel benefited service at our busiest stations and Metro Tunnel benefits for your line. An October 2025 item, setting out what's happening when for the Metro Tunnel was also popular. 

Another popular theme was the frequent network. Here I take an integrated approach describing it as a 'thing'. This is a different approach to the current emphasis on major projects with frequency merely being a welcome (but sometimes undersold) by-product that happens if they are feeling generous. The three popular items here are (unsurprisingly) the main landing page for the network frequency maps I maintain, a more visionary item on a future frequent network and a look at why frequency is critical to increasing public transport's currently slow door to door speeds. 

Boosting frequency costs money if extra service kilometres need to be added. But there are cases where you can get effective service boosts by simplifying and reforming bus networks. A 2020 item on how Perth reforms buses at a faster rate than Melbourne remained popular last year. 

Rounding off the most popular reads was my 2024 look at the executives who run DTP. I attribute some of that to bureaucrats reading about themselves (or their bosses). If you liked that item you'll also want to read my 2025 follow-up here as there have been some changes.  


Reflections on 2025

There were three major development in 2025. Let's go through them. 

New infrastructure opened

2025 was the year in which two transport mega projects opened to the public - one road and the other rail. I'm talking about the West Gate Tunnel and Metro Tunnel with videos on the latter here. 

Level crossing removals continued. Amongst other things these proved beyond doubt the superiority of elevated over trench rail in many cases. For example Parkdale's "skyrail" success confounded former critics with the project clearly improving local permeability. Whereas Edithvale, Bonbeach and (especially) Chelsea people a down the line never really warmed to their treeless heat island trenches that replaced one divide with another and needlessly extended walking distances. This record shows that good decisions can sometimes arise from governments courageously ignoring then-conventional wisdom (including from some on their own side).  

Did the new rail infrastructure lead to service increases as was used as justification for these projects getting funding? We don't completely know yet but, with the 'Big Switch' for the Metro Tunnel in one month today we should know in a couple of weeks. More about the future later. 

Setback for transport's biggest project.. but there's hope

2025 was a year in which key events and when we knew about them do not always happen in sequence. Appreciation of the order in which things happen is essential to form correct conclusions. Noting that governments have significant scope to withhold or at least delay information. 

Such a fate befell what I would regard as Melbourne's biggest transport project (as measured by number of trips generated and geographical coverage). Comprehensive bus reform has potential to generate about 80 million annual trips, making projects like North East Link, West Gate Tunnel and SRL East look small in comparison.  


By mid 2023 I had surmised that the most important part of Victoria's 1663 day old Bus Plan (that dealing with bus network reform and service upgrades) was probably dead. This was based on there being no sign of the Bus Reform Implementation Plan that was meant to add meat to what I then said was a vague 'plan for a plan'. 

A year or two prior there was scope for optimism including some bus service upgrades in late 2021, some more funded in the 2022 state budget and finally major bus network reviews across Melbourne's north and north-east announced just before that year's state election. Under Minister Carroll words like 'bus reform' made it into budget documents; something that was not the case under previous ministers Horne and Allan.   

Labor was returned with a big majority in the 2022 election. Nothing more was heard about the bus network reviews. The May 2023 state budget spent more on free car registration for apprentice tradies than on new bus initiatives. 

There was nothing public from the government that they had ditched bus reform but it was fair to conclude this based on what the budget did and did not fund. Such a view was confirmed by 2024's budget that had just one new metropolitan bus upgrade funded (Route 800 in Dandenong). Otherwise it looked as if the Department was unable to win support for the sort of ambitious style of bus network reform that the Bus Plan had raised expectations on just a few years prior.  

The above was previously known but doesn't tell the full story. In 2025 we got to know more thanks to a tabling in parliament of internal DTP bus planning documents following a motion from Trung Luu MLC. The motion was passed in March 2024.

It apparently took 18 months for the department to find and collate the relevant papers for tabling in September 2025. Some documents were partly or entirely Cabinet in Confidence so we don't know everything. Nearly 2000 pages were arranged in three stacks of documents, depending on whether the public could see all of them, parts only or none of them (the latter being Cabinet documents). 

From that I pieced together a chronology of significant developments in bus reform that you can see below (click for a better view).


There were apparently two occasions that bus reform came to Cabinet's attention. That included advice to it in April 2022 and an apparent rejection (possibly as part of wider deliberations for the May 2024 state budget) in late 2023. The eighteen or so months in that period saw significant planning work done by DTP with some farmed out to external consultants.  

Key elements included what was called B1 corridors - bus rapid transit corridors running every 5 - 10 minutes. Adding these fast routes would vastly multiply the number of connection points, making for a more versatile network, especially for cross-suburban travel. 

The next layer down was B2 connector bus routes operating every 10 minutes along a main road grid spaced about 1.6km apart. Most people would be within walking distance of at least one of these faster and more direct routes. 

Both BRT and connector routes would be rolled out over a staged program extending to 2030. New networks in pilot areas in Melbourne's north and north-east would have commenced in early 2025. 


Such a revised network would likely attract new patronage due to longer hours and shorter waits although trade-offs such as increased walking distances and a need to change would exist for some trips. The implications of this were studied as were other topics such as comparative per capita resourcing for bus services across Australia and their low social licence, particularly in Melbourne. 

If implemented this revamped bus network would be easily Melbourne's biggest transport project based on its likely  usage and 4 million-plus geographical coverage. It would make the much debated airport rail, with its two added train stations, look small. My analysis on the tabled documents led to several media appearances, summarised here. 

We may have to wait years until we know Cabinet's reason for not proceeding with large-scale bus network reform as proposed and promised. It could be a wariness of political risk, a lack of funding or thinking that a complex reform takes a long time to do and a different approach could enable roll-out of a more limited set of upgrades before the 2026 election.

However what is known is that not all Cabinet ministers are alive to the potential of improved buses as part of a multimodal public transport network. SRL Minister Harriet Shing's dismissive comment about 'buses not solving any problems whatsoever' in a recent Dunn Street Socially Democratic interview may authentically reflect thinking not uncommon in this government. 

While ambitious bus reform was off the agenda, the government tried to keep up appearances. For example every small change to a bus route or timetable was described as being part of the Bus Plan. Most were good but one or two were not, such as the revised complicated 513/514 timetables that replaced the promised but even sillier Greensborough FlexiRide. 

DTP's canny former Secretary Paul Younis was spinning like a DJ at PAEC, with delays and presentation tricks to foil questioners.  GAIC developer taxes were used to temporarily fund more growth area bus upgrades. Meanwhile the document that really counts, the 2025 state budget, had much more for upgraded metropolitan buses across Melbourne's west and north than austere 2023 and 2024 budgets. 

Thus both can be accepted as correct in 2025:

(i) the state government abandoned promised large-scale bus reform as envisaged in the Bus Plan, and (ii) state government interest in bus service upgrades as demonstrated by the budget for new initiatives was significantly higher in 2025 than it was in the previous two state budgets. 

Also happening in 2025 on the bus scene was continued progress on electrification with new operator contracts that made big companies bigger while squeezing out small operators, especially in northern suburbs. 

The rise of community bus service campaigns

While the government was backtracking on its big bus ideas the community was stepping up. The first of these new breed of area-based campaigns was that from FOE's Sustainable Cities who launched its Better Buses campaign in September 2021. This pivoted to Melbourne's west in 2022. 

Fix800Bus emerged on the other side of Melbourne just before the 2022 state election. That election was not particularly prominent for public transport services with the agenda a mix of big infrastructure (Labor) and crime (Coalition). Labor had its then vague bus plan, Greens had an equally vague bus electrification plan while the Liberals were more specific but did not strongly market the policy. 

So neither campaign got much out of the 2022 campaign that saw Labor win with a large majority. However the resignation of premier Daniel Andrews and treasurer Tim Pallas led to by-elections in Mulgrave (2023) and Werribee (2025). Both campaigns made good use of these by-elections, winning an increased profile and being taken seriously by the state government. This resulted in bus upgrades being funded in 2024 (800 in Dandenong) and 2025 (various Werribee and Tarneit improvements). The upgraded Route 800 has been running long enough to demonstrate that if you upgrade the right routes you can get very strong patronage gains that make the improved funding great value for money. 

More recently there has been increased community interest from the northern suburbs in improved bus services. Possibly as there are some well used routes and the area was snubbed by the proposed but now abandoned bus reviews. Climate Action Merri-bek has stepped up interest in transport and buses too. While transport in the north has historically had a lower profile than the more vocal west, the north got some transport budget wins in 2025 including halved maximum waits for Craigieburn and Upfield line trains, Sunday service on the 536 bus and a significant bus package across Craigieburn, Wollert and Epping. 

The result is that as we come in to 2026 (a state election year) there are established transport campaigns in the west, north and south-east of Melbourne. With a closer election forecast this should put transport advocacy in a stronger position than it was in 2022. 

Challenges and opportunities for public transport in 2026

Metro Tunnel Big Switch

The Metro Tunnel technically opened in 2025 but it's not until this day next month that it will become a full part of the public transport network. 

This will see what the government is calling the 'Big Switch', delivering (at least) major all week frequency upgrades on the Watergardens - Dandenong corridor and full-time rail access to the Parkville, Anzac and Arden precincts. 

The Labor government will be hoping that this (and the also recently opened West Gate Tunnel) restores its popularity as the public experiences the results of its massive infrastructure program and construction disruptions recede into memory.  

The vox pop about 3/4 into this Philip Mallis video confirmed the desirability of high frequency - not just on the Metro Tunnel but also intersecting lines. 



There was an outpouring of excitement on Day 1 of the limited timetable Metro Tunnel on November 30. However even that was slightly tempered due to uncertainty over the service levels we'll get with the 'Big Switch' timetable starting on February 1, 2026. Likely amplified by somewhat variable communication (eg promises of a 'new timetable everywhere') and this government's decade-long parsimony on metropolitan rail frequencies.  

A summary of timetables to change on February 1 is here and tabulated below. 


Radio 3AW did a story on potential 'Big Switch' rail timetables that you can listen to here.

There will no doubt be clarification and then release of the timetables we'll get later this month.

There will likely be people asking about further staged upgrades such as the Werribee, Sandringham, Craigieburn and Upfield improvements funded in the 2025 state budget and hopefully also word of progress on the remaining lines to honour the 'new timetable everywhere' promise.

Opportunities for the government to mention these might come just after the Big Switch, in the May 2026 state budget (which would aid credibility due to actual funding), or, if they are dragging the chain, merely in the form of a promise during the election campaign later in the year. 

Bus and rail service upgrades

Especially in a budget constrained context where there may not be very many (if any) large capital works projects announced, improved bus and train services is a cost-effective way to distribute the benefits of improved transport across a large number of seats (not unlike the level crossing program).

While it involves largely operational rather than capital expenditure, the amounts involved are relatively small, especially if they involve working the existing fleet harder or some judicious reform of overlapping duplicative routes. These days a $2b spend might be a fraction of a major project in one area whereas $100m pa could buy a significant bus upgrade package across Melbourne and/or reduced maximum waits for trains on popular lines.

Community support for some of the above might be aided by the growth of various campaigns mentioned above. Also while the government has been lucky to have had an opposition beset with its own problems, it does have vulnerabilities (including infrastructure in growth areas and transport service levels Melbourne-wide) that any rejuvenated opposition or local independents might challenge them on. 

Summary 

With the Metro Tunnel properly open, a pre-election state budget and then the election campaign itself, 2026 promises to be an interesting year. 

It won't be without challenges with likely continued budgetary pressures. 

Hopefully this means that there'll be less of the gimmicks and more of the substance to make public transport a more useful and popular option that more Victorians will choose to use. 

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