The Allan government's new transport ministers

With Jacinta Allan becoming premier and Ben Carroll deputy premier (and Minister for Education), it was inevitable that there were going to be changes in who oversees transport after the resignation of Daniel Andrews. 

Hence it's a welcome to Essendon MLA Danny Pearson who adds Transport Infrastructure and the Suburban Rail Loop to his Assistant Treasurer role and Dandenong MLA Gabrielle Williams who becomes the Minister for Public and Active Transport, replacing Ben Carroll in the public transport role. Ministers Melissa Horne retains roads, Sonya Kilkenny retains planning and Josh Bull retains his parliamentary secretary role. 

I expect Mr Pearson to bring his financial management background to major transport projects, whose costs are escalating due to labour, materials and rising interest rates. The fact that other countries (and even other states) can build transport infrastructure cheaper than we can also needs a good hard look. 

As for public transport services, we don't yet know what Ms Williams has in mind. However there is mounting community demands for service increases, given V/Line weekend crowding, embarrassingly long evening Metro train waits, changing post-pandemic travel patterns and a backlog in 7 day bus services in new and established suburbs alike. 

Legacy of recent past ministers

Before we start on all that, let's look at recent past ministers (earlier ones discussed here). 

Previous premier Daniel Andrews and current premier (then transport minister) Jacinta Allan are most identified with 'Big Build' policies, especially in transport, after Labor's 2014 victory. Everything was about major project-based infrastructure, most notably the Metro Tunnel, level crossing removals and most ambitiously, the Suburban Rail Loop. Service, planning and network reform matters, despite being the most cost-effective measures to immediately improve public transport, were sidelined, as explained here. I discussed the Andrews government's record at keeping its promises (up to 2022) here.  

Reform of ministerial arrangements after the 2018 election brought first time MP Melissa Horne straight into the public transport portfolio. This time coincided with 'peak infrastructure', still handled by Jacinta Allan, with little progress on the service side. 

The Adem Somyurek affair brought ruptions to the government that resulted in the ministerial reshuffle that brought Ben Carroll to the public transport portfolio. Sometimes seen riding public transport, Mr Carroll immediately said that improving the long-neglected bus network was a priority with wide benefits and high returns for the money spent. Well-regarded by stakeholders, he presided over the introduction of minimum passing distance laws around bikes, launched Victoria's Bus Plan in 2021 and Victoria's Tram Plan two years later. 

It became permissible again to talk about bus network reform with modest upgrades funded in the 2021 and 2022 state budgets. However a tight budgetary environment, a continued reluctance to fund service initiatives and shifting attention to items like bus recontracting and electrification made service reform marginal once again, with little extra funded in the 2023 state budget. 

To put it crudely, the big projects that Jacinta Allan touched got money (often billions) while smaller (but very cost-effective) initiatives in Ben Carroll's area seemed to be 'frozen out' of the government's agenda. Greater support for these in party caucus and cabinet would have helped, but the infrastructure-first tendency remained strong, especially in the dominant Socialist Left faction (which gained numbers since some switched to it just after the 2022 election). Young Labor, in the party's organisational wing, does however back improved PT service, with a motion recently carried. 

Power relationships in the bureaucracy also seemed to have shifted with the new Department of Transport being bigger (though less influential on service matters) than the old but more targeted PTV, with infrastructure project agencies having sway reflecting their large budgets under this government. 

The department was further enlarged after the 2022 election with it incorporating Planning (hence DTP) with minister Sonya Kilkenny. Ms Allan's title was subtly expanded from 'Transport Infrastructure' to 'Transport and Infrastructure', which along with her gaining the Deputy Premier role, strengthened her (and infrastructure's) dominance of the portfolio. 

Mr Carroll appeared to have a win for his seat when the scope of the Airport Rail project was expanded to include a much-demanded station at Keilor East but this became embarrassing when it was announced that airport rail's fate was subject to a federal review. The post-2022 election reshuffle retained him in public transport but swapped roads for wider industry portfolio roles, effectively weakening his coverage of transport matters. It seemed that he could have his bus plan but not the funding to properly implement it. 

Although the Andrews government attracted criticism from what you might call transport's 'serious experts' (including the Auditor-General) for lacking an overarching transport plan, it could at least argue that (at least until recently) it had a better record than the Cain/Kirner and Bracks/Brumby governments in doing what it said it promised, even if some things done presented opportunity costs.   

Opportunities for the new Public and Active Transport Minister

There's quite a few. With the Bus and Tram plans, the agenda (especially the problems to be solved) is sketched out in more detail than was the case three years ago when Ben Carroll took over. 

On the debit side, interest costs are biting and the budget is increasingly under pressure. While that may make recurrent funding for service increases hard to find, the good news is that the amounts involved are relatively small and initiatives can be targeted to areas of greatest need or patronage potential. And where it's simple operating hours and weekend frequency upgrades on existing routes you are not subject to delays due to public consultation or fleet expansions. 

Cost-effective service upgrades in the 2024 Budget

Of particular interest to Ms Williams will be that pretty much on Day 1 of her ministry DTP will already be planning its agenda for the May 2024 State Budget, before initiatives go to the Expenditure Review Subcommittee. Therefore, in the words of her friend and former premier, "there is not a moment to waste".

Practical transport service agenda for the Mulgrave by-election

In relation to bus service levels, the minister's seat of Dandenong is also the least served when considering the proportion of routes that operate 7 days to minimum service standards. Politically this is of immediate interest as 4 out of 6 Dandenong's non-seven day routes (800, 802, 804 & 814) also serve the ex-premier's seat of Mulgrave with a by-election soon. Seven day service upgrades would send a signal that the government cares about local services and is willing to invest in improvements (like better transport) that improve access to jobs and address cost of living issues. 

Tackling long term issues for public transport

Seven key issues are detailed in my December 2022 item here. All remain relevant today. In summary these include:

(1) There have indeed been crowding issues on some V/Line services, especially since the fare drop. You don't want people left behind, especially if it's a long wait to the next train. 

(2) Metro trains continue to have below-par service, notably evenings and Sunday mornings on most lines including the minister's own of Dandenong. Removing 40 and then 30 minute waits would be top priorities here with only a small per cent increase in the number of weekly trains run needed.

(3) Bus service backlog in high needs areas of which the Mulgrave-Dandenong area is perhaps the epicentre on some measures, despite recording high average usage on the bus services that do run.

(4) Tram delays and accessibility issues.

(5) Issues with V/Line service delivery, though we no longer have to worry about the Comm Games. 

(6) Cost control of major projects and a need to identify and fix network inefficiencies to afford more widely beneficial service uplifts. 
(7) Falling fare compliance, with a deterioration on buses (especially) from the pandemic when they went cashless with on-bus top ups via card also unavailable. 

Added to this are the operational challenges of bringing the Metro Tunnel to fruition in 2025 along with complementary train, tram and bus network changes. Along with continued effort to make travel as good as it can be for those whose travel will be affected by the continuing program of level crossing removals and other major projects. 

 

Opposition changes also

The state opposition has also had a reshuffle of some of its portfolios including transport. Former leader Matthew Guy takes over the public transport role from Richard Riordan. 

Conclusion

I look forward to Mr Pearson's and Ms Williams' periods as transport portfolio ministers and trust that they will be able to preside over network reforms and service expansions necessary to make public transport more useful for more people for more trips.  

UN 164: Better transport in Mulgrave (6 point plan)

This week's resignation of Daniel Andrews as premier since 2014 and member for Mulgrave since 2002 creates an opportunity for improved public transport in an area that has never had very much. The opportunity is perhaps amplified because we now have a deputy premier who strongly supports bus service upgrades, even saying that a dollar invested in service returns five dollars to the community. 

For those who don't know it, Mulgrave is an almost square-shaped seat in Melbourne's mostly 1950s - 1980s (then) outer south-eastern suburbs. Ferntree Gully Rd forms its northern boundary with Heatherton Rd to its south. The east and west boundaries aren't quite as straight but roughly align with Westall Rd and East-west Link. Key suburbs include Springvale, Noble Park, Noble Park North, Wheelers Hill and Mulgrave, its namesake. Average incomes vary greatly from very low to high, generally increasing from south to north. The seat, especially its southern half, is very diverse, with a high proportion of families speaking languages other than English at home. 

Ever since it urbanised the seat (and its predecessors) have been safe Labor. While there is no party with a primary vote that rivals Labor, the latter's primary vote has been falling. Such a swing away from the major parties has been particularly notable in high average income inner suburban seats (which returned 'teal' independents or Greens in the 2022 federal election) and low average income ethnically diverse outer suburban seats (most notable in parts of Melbourne's west, north and south-east). 

You could watch the above video, but to put it in a nutshell, major parties took the latter areas for granted. Liberals considered they'd not win them while Labor (including in government) regarded these areas as its own and directed funding for services to more marginal areas such as the Frankston line sandbelt.

To take a transport example, while all of Bentleigh East's buses got 7 day service about 15 years ago, only about half of those in Dandenong did despite high social needs in the latter area. And, due to a preoccupation with infrastructure, the roll-out of 7 day service has ground almost to a halt with 'safe' Labor seats that missed out last time falling even further behind. Mulgrave is a classic example, with five bus routes not operating 7 days despite all recording above average usage on the days that they do operate. My 2022 election write-up on Mulgrave is here.

Existing public transport services in Mulgrave

What public transport exists in Mulgrave now? The Dandenong line serves the south-west of the seat. This has had significant level crossing removals at Springvale and Noble Park to general acclaim. There have also been some improvements to train timetables, though waits on weekend evenings and Sunday mornings remain long. This line will run through to the capacity-increasing Metro Tunnel but actual service levels are as yet unknown. Westall, Springvale, Sandown Park and Noble Park are the four stations nearest to Mulgrave residents, though some in the north may use the Glen Waverley line. 

The rest of the Mulgrave seat has buses. The highest served routes are the 900 on Wellington Rd between Caulfield and Rowville and the 902 on Springvale Rd. Both get above average usage but weekend frequency on both is low for premium routes, with 30 minute gaps typical. Local Mulgrave bus routes typically operate every 30 to 120 minutes and may not run evenings, Sundays and even Saturdays. As noted above failure to meet minimum service standards for buses is more prevalent in Mulgrave than elsewhere. 

A six point transport plan for Mulgrave

Quite a bit can be done for public transport in Mulgrave. Some areas have complex, indirect and overlapping bus routes that could be simplified. Key examples being the 802/804/862 along Wellington Rd and the 631, 813, 814 and 848 along Police Rd. The 802/804/862 should be relatively simple to reform while Police Rd probably requires a larger local bus network review. These can be drawn out affairs and an election campaign isn't necessarily the best time for such deliberations. Especially if you want 'quick wins' that fix the most pressing issues now. 

Such issues include short operating hours unsuitable for the times that many people wish to travel, a lack of 7 day service, crowding on busy routes (notably Springvale Rd) and long waits at certain times even on busy lines and routes. The good news is that all of these are fixable by working the existing fleet harder for more of the week on existing lines and routes, with the main expenditure being additional rostered driver hours. 

Such a plan would have benefits across almost the entire seat, as mapped below:  

In more detail, the six initiatives could be: 

1. Route 800 upgrade. Would gain longer hours (to at least 9pm) and new Sunday service. As this is a main road route serving major centres at Chadstone and Dandenong, a 20 minute weekend frequency is suggested (matching the 893 along a portion of Princes Hwy further out). As Melbourne's busiest bus without 7 day service, this upgrade would be the highest priority of the six for Mulgrave (and has certainly been the most publicised). 

2. Route 814 7 day upgrade. Would gain longer hours and new Saturday afternoon and Sunday service. An hourly frequency appears low but reflects the existing weekday and Saturday morning timetable. It would also enable co-scheduling with the partly overlapping 848 to provide a combined 30 minute service on sections. 

3. Route 802/804 7 day upgrade. Route 802 would gain new Saturday and Sunday service while 804 would gain improved Saturday afternoon and new Sunday service. Operating hours would also be extended to 9pm. We suggest hourly weekend service on each route with the timetable offset with Route 862 to provide a 20 minute combined frequency on the overlap.  

4. Route 885 7 day upgrade. Would gain an extension of operating hours to 9pm and a new Sunday service. Hourly suggested to match existing Saturday service levels and meet minimum service standards. A later network review in the area may have scope to increase frequencies further. 

5. Route 902 15 minute frequency 7 days on Springvale Rd. Route 902 SmartBus currently operates every 15 minutes on weekdays and 30 min weekends. This is a busy corridor and weekend crowding can ensue on parts of the route. We suggestion the addition of short trips every 30 min between Nunawading and  the Keysborough depot to to provide a combined 15 min service during the day. 9pm to midnight Sunday evening service would also be desirable on this section. 

6. Dandenong line frequency upgrade to a 20 min maximum wait. This is Melbourne's busiest rail line with Springvale one of its busier stations. Service is currently 10 min during the day (7 days) but there is a sharp drop to 30 min on weekend evenings. Sunday morning service is also half-hourly. A worthwhile and relatively economical upgrade would be to add trips so maximum waits at these times are 20 minutes - same as that on the quieter Frankston, Werribee and Williamstown lines. This upgrade would move the Dandenong line nearer to a true turn-up-and-go service across the day, though ultimately the aim should be 10 minute maximum waits at least as far as Dandenong. 

Conclusion

The above forms the basis of an affordable transport upgrade agenda for Mulgrave. It's not complete but it does cover matters of most immediate importance, including completion of the minimum standards roll-out (promised in 2006) and 7 day frequent Springvale Rd service. 

Subsequent stages could include frequency boosts for Route 900 on Wellington Rd, the abovementioned 802/804/862 simplification, a Police Rd corridor review (including a direct Centre Rd route to Clayton) and a start on a Monash - Dandenong frequent route on Heatherton Rd as per the Future Frequent Network. 

Candidates and advocates may wish to consider it when shaping their policies for the by-election. The increased attention given to Mulgrave in the next couple of months will give a welcome opportunity for transport services to have a higher profile than they did in last November's general election. And, as you saw above, Mulgrave most definitely needs it! 

More on the Mulgrave by-election

Antony Green's election analysis page

#Fix800Bus on Facebook

Index to other Useful Network items

Top 5 priorities for Transport Equity Week

17 to 23 September 2023 is Transport Equity Week.

I discuss transport equity quite a bit here. Examples include my look at the systemic inequity of current routes and timetables, the extent to which existing service priorities entrench poverty traps with routes and timetables that are not 'job ready', priority service upgrades to new social housing developments and, more recently, the case of most diverse but least served Greater Dandenong. 

With cost of living pressures hurting demographics that one might consider 'middle class', equity issues are no longer just a 'poor people thing' that governments (especially Labor) could safely ignore with no electoral consequences. Especially with the collapsing major party primary vote in areas that were previously 'taken for granted' (Labor) or 'not our people' (Liberal). 

I'm talking the likes of Dandenong and Broadmeadows where there are neighbourhoods whose buses have not had a single trip added for 30 years or more despite high patronage, strong social needs and the routes being passed over when there was last a serious upgrade program about 15 years ago.  

Young Labor has recently cottoned on to this, passing a motion backing train frequency upgrades (especially in Melbourne's north and west) as well as reformed routes and minimum service standards (ie 7 day operation) on buses. It remains to be seen whether the senior party, parliamentary party and most critically the cabinet take heed. 

As well as a service existing, it must also be accessible. That means being able to cross the road to get to stops and once you're at a stop being able to board a vehicle (a particular issue with trams).   

Service and accessibility themes feature in Transport Equity Week events being held around Australia. Of interest was that the idea for local activity in Melbourne came from a chance meeting with Minister Carroll at a post-election function. 

So what are the service-related measures that would further transport equity in Melbourne? 

Here's my top five.

1. 7 day buses in high needs areas that currently lack them. The most notable gaps exist in Dandenong but attention is also needed in areas like Glenroy, Thomastown/Lalor, Campbellfield, Croydon/Lilydale, Frankston, Knox and more. That's good for equity as currently the only after 7pm or Sunday transport some neighbourhoods in these areas have are expensive taxis/ubers.  

2. Faster roll-out of bus routes in new estates without them. Eg the likes of Mt Atkinson, Mambourin and Thornhill Park. Having even a basic bus service assists with cost of living pressures as it enables more households to get by without a second or third car (which the RACV recently told is is expensive). 

3. Completion of missing bus links that would speed access to jobs. Some cross-suburban trips require needless backtracking and thus take too long to be a practical commute despite the short distances involved. Examples include Tarneit - Laverton North, Sunshine - Melbourne Airport, La Trobe University to Swinburne via Chandler Hwy, La Trobe University to Caulfield via Camberwell, Dandenong South to Keysborough and Narre Warren to name just a few. 

4. Progressively cutting 40 and then 30 minute waits on trains to deliver 20 minute maximum waits across the network all week. This would particularly benefit those who don't work standard M-F 9-5 jobs (disproportionately the 'working poor' service sector). Especially those who need to be somewhere at a particular time or making connections. Areas with the longest waits for trains are the west, north and outer east. This is incredibly cheap to do and should be a prelude to more widespread all day 10 minute service. 

5. Various active transport and accessibility works to improve connectivity to and between transport modes and suburban centres. Could include bus and tram priority measures, roundabout removals, placing bus stops nearer intersections, new pedestrian crossings, etc. 

Many of these are cost-effective, whether it's working existing trains or buses harder or doing small works that if replicated would deliver last and very cost-effective connectivity and access gains. And often it's not even a case of choosing between equity and patronage goals - there are high patronage growth potential instances (eg Craigieburn line trains and Dandenong area buses) where boosting service furthers both without needing to compromise. 

Have any other thoughts? Please leave them in the comments below.